Member Info for rob229

2 more small points: You said Chariot. I do not know that one. Maybe you meant OEX, which had a better day on Thursday. (But trading in shares in NY was terrible on Thursday afternoon, i.e. after the close in London), so Friday may be a give-back day. Ukraine issues stirring again, I believe. In the link which you kindly gave me, I found a mention of an interesting share, which was floated only four months ago. Symbol EUSP. I do not remember who among the posters likes it. The price has risen from 24p to 40p. The founder, a former McKinsey & Co. consultant, holds ~11% of the shares. I have not made any definite decisions, but maybe EUSP exhibits some of the characteristics that I like. Am going to watch. A funny analogy for you to contemplate. EUSP is a Software as a Service ("Saas") model. This model reminds me of the practice of law. For multiple clients, a lawyer makes minor adaptations of his usual service; yet each client is charged as though the service had been created for him or her. Now very late here. Quitting for the night. Happy trading on Friday morning. Regards, Rob

Hi Dan, I enjoyed the link. You are plainly smitten with the market. Quite extraordinary at your age. I might have written here a few weeks ago that many people in their twenties seem to find pleasure in frivolities such as Twitter, video games or insipid television shows. What has caused you to rise above those things? I respect your determination to unlock secrets to trading success, whether the secrets be technical analysis, fundamental analysis such as EV/EBIT ratio; but to me, a necessary ingredient even though an almost ineffable one is the ability ahead of the pack to perceive a trend. Another often-beneficial ingredient is evaluation of the quality of the board. I like to invest alongside directors who have had past successes in related fields, directors who are neither too young nor too old, directors who have significant shareholdings and modest salaries, directors who have a lot to lose (e.g., a chartered accountant, a solicitor, a registered engineer). People like that are generally motivated to refrain from shady conduct because shady conduct could jeopardize their professional licenses. I know no way that the ingredients discussed above can be rolled in a convenient way into either technical or fundamental analysis. I have a friend who, over a period of perhaps five years, held Apple shares from ~ 95 dollars to ~ 420 dollars because he believed that the products were nifty, that Apple shops were innovative and that the public would decide to join the party. This friend, though a university graduate, has probably never read a cash flow statement and has definitely never bothered to calculate a price-to-sales ratio. But he preached the Apple religion ahead of anyone else I know, and he did very well. When he talked to me about buying Apple shares @ 95 dollars, I looked at a one-year or two-year chart and felt that the price would weaken. But it never did so. I am just taking the long way to say that investing is both an art and a science. I do not believe that successful methods can be quite so reliably established as you would like them to be. Still, you can improve your odds very considerably by doing everything you are doing. I forget whether I have heretofore disclosed one of my (silly?) maxims about successful investing: "The only rule is that there are no rules." You are free to reject this notion. It does not have the B Graham imprimatur. It is a rule of my own devising. I believe the rule is useful, but it does not mean that I am throwing darts. It means that I try to borrow some technicals and some fundamentals and blend them with my own subtle theories. BTW, I do not claim to know the answer, but I wonder whether a long-term investor like Warren Buffett knows or cares about RSI. This matters much more for traders. I think most of the truly successful share-market people eschew short-term trading. continued . . .

You hardly need my critique, but I think that you handled the opponent in a splendid way. In my opinion, the comparison which you made to the impossibility of persuading others who hold entrenched political views (perhaps, the Conservative party vs. the Labor party in Great Britain; Republicans vs. Democrats in this country) is apt. Am not declining to discuss the merits of Oilex, but I may not have adequate time until Saturday. For the moment, sentiment -- which was strong three days ago -- has deteriorated, and I am a little worried; I bought a half-position only, but I hope not to lose. The mini version of the story is that a productive well seems almost a sure thing, and the share is trading at the midpoint of its 52-week low and high. I do not have the market cap at my fingertips, but it struck me as modest in relation to the promising story. I probably seem a tad inarticulate; long day, late hour no The NY market on Wednesday was much weaker in the a.m. than the p.m., so perhaps a better day on AIM is approaching. Wednesday on AIM was not much fun from what I could see. Pockets of selling pressure seemed numerous. BTW, if it is any consolation, few investors that I know have at present ample funds for share purchases. I am not aware of the income-tax filing deadline in your corner of the world. Here, it is April 15; so there are many who have tax liabilities and a consequent need to improve liquidity by selling shares between now and then. Prediction: in due course, you will get to know Italy better and will understand that it is a very special country. I assure you it is hard to find fault with summer days and summer evenings spent along the shore of Mare Tirreno. Fine sand, warm water, hospitable people, excellent dinners served beautifully. I could mention a half dozen nice towns to put on your next itinerary. (Rome is nice, but like any big city, not so easy in my opinion to relax there.) Wishing AIM traders a profitable Thursday. Rob

Full disclosure to Mr Skier, I write from across the pond. I am an experienced investor (bonds and shares in various countries), but not so experienced on AIM. I found my way to AIM because I had heard last summer something good about MONI. In order to study MONI for myself, I found my way to www.lse.co.uk. To my knowledge, there is no website for US shares that displays so much useful data, useful discussion and news as this website displays for AIM shares, so I have, during the past several months devoted considerable effort here. I have had some good experiences, but I am a self-effacing individual, and I am mindful of the fact that the London market has, in a general way, been in an uptrend during the months that I have been participating. I cannot claim to have an ear to the ground because I am not in England. With this proviso, I have a good feeling about BES. I forget the market cap at the moment, but my impression is that one seldom finds a company in the consumer brands sector at such a small market cap. Granted revenues are still small, and one should probably pause to contemplate the likelihood as to whether BES' brands will, any time soon, grab the attention of the spirits-consuming public. One other company that I am looking at -- thinly traded but still interesting to me -- is TIDE. An auspicious RNS was released prior to the open on 10.03.2014. So the offer price was raised, and I am hoping for a better entry point. If your schedule allows, I would welcome your view of this company. If you like it a lot and you decide to jump ahead of me, well, that is a possibility that I would cheerfully accept. Note the spread, ca. 27.5%, so if you approach at all, please do so with great caution. Good luck on Wednesday. Rob229

Not sure whether it will be productive for you to engage in a war of words with the chap on that certain other board. I realize that a non-response may allow him to think he is victorious; but on the other hand, I do not foresee you persuading him. The disparaging remark which was typed there by the other poster was, in my judgment, beyond the boundaries of either fair comment or fair play. Maybe I read too quickly, but I did not see an apology for that uncalled-for remark. I am acquainted with some investors who have 20+ years on you who either cannot or will not examine financial data as you are accustomed to do. Maybe the opponent at the other board is a good numbers person too, but I believe that the service being offered by MOS has a good future both in Argentina and elsewhere. As you know, the MOS revenue stream (no pun intended) is not limited to Argentina. Another reason why, in my judgment, MOS offers potential in the 30p range relates to another old maxim of the market. I think that this maxim originates with one of the Rothschilds: "Buy at the sound of the cannons, Sell at the sound of the violins." Thankfully, there are no canons being heard in Argentina these days, but the devaluation and currency controls might be said to constitute a faintly comparable condition. Maybe MOS shares could move lower than their current level, but they sure do seem to have stabilized at the current level. I will for the present exercise forbearance as to how you might conclude the dialogue with the chap. Rob

Good afternoon Mr Skier, I would be pleased to know whether BES turns out to suit you at the 1.5p level. Since you traded it well some months ago at 1p, you probably will prefer not to buy at this relatively high level. To me, it still looks promising. Never saw a spread like I see at EMT. Hard to sign on to one like that, though I am generally a big proponent of investing in small and micro-cap names. I suppose a buy around 20-25p might get executed, but what do I know? Do you have any sense that EMT management are good operators? Thank you again. Rob229

Good day Mr faz147, I agree that the lack of selling pressure and the improving fundamental story here are reasons to remain involved with SNTY. The interesting story [in combination with the tiny market cap] were my reasons for making a purchase of SNTY shares. I sense that the maxim "Patience is a virtue" will prove to be applicable here. I note that, some months ago, you were following FITB. Is FITB a share that you continue to follow? Always looking for low-priced opportunities. Do you like the news there? I thank you for your response [on this bb] when you have a moment. Regards, Rob229

Hi George, One of those appreciative mates [mentioned by Dan in the 11:58 post] is wishing you success with SYQ. Rob229

Hello Mr Skier, Small point: you and I might be praising slightly different virtues at Arcontech. This share seems to be under the radar for many, but I foresee better activity soon. I should click on your pen name and try to see some shares that are of interest to you. Any familiarity with BES? It is another one which, to me, feels rather quiet and which seems to be moving in a good direction. Good luck with your investments. Happy to share ideas. Regards, Rob229

A pleasure to read your post. I reread the note from Friday. It is entirely true that you mentioned your background in insurance, not life insurance. Because you are following CSN, I had, in error, put "2 + 2 together." I took a once-a-week course in Italian a few summers ago. I had a wonderful teacher from Italy, who had been an interpreter at the United Nations in Geneva and who speaks German, Italian, French and English. I really admire her. I found some of the Italian grammar difficult, but I regret that I did not stay involved. I have on several occasions surfed over to www.ilsole24.com, the financial-markets site for Italy. A struggle, but I have enjoyed it. I have probably not had occasion to type here that I have visited Italy on several occasions. I think it is a wonderful country. In the Benjamin Graham memoir, he mentions seaside holidays at Alassio, (Regione Liguria), perhaps 60 or 70 miles to the east of Nice Aeroport. I stayed in Alassio for almost a week a few years ago. Really a terrific place; one really feels faraway: little English is spoken there. Maybe you have been there. I only recently realized that B. Graham had liked it there too. Florence might be my favorite city of all. During this past weekend, I got swept up in the OEX story as discussed at length on www.lse.co.uk. Do you know OEX? A spudded well right next to a well that had plenty of hydrocarbons but which turned out badly for other reasons. There seem to be many believers that nothing bad will happen this time. Independent of you, I found my way to AFPO. For one who generally avoids resources, I like OEX and AFPO. Away from resources, there was interesting news at 7 o'clock on Monday re a penny share called Crimson Tide, TIDE. I see much promise, but TIDE spiked on the news, so I would not buy at the moment. Will watch. The CEO, Mr Barrie Whipp, is the founder and holds many shares. I forget the exact percentage. An asset manager in Zurich named IS Partners holds 19%. Did you notice the shrewd poster at SYQ whom I had mentioned last week in the context of FOX? I am not sure how long he has been interested in SYQ. [For that matter, I am not sure how long you have been following AFPO!] I suppose the virtue of the AFPO story is that the company has a market cap ca. 7 million GBP after it invested, within the past 12-18 months, 12 or 13 million GBP for its license to mine potash. Surely investors appreciate the Africa risk, but AFPO still looks undervalued. It would be nice if either you or I could confer for an hour with B. Graham to ask whether he would see the margin of safety that you and I think is present in the shares of AFPO. Alas, not possible in the 21st century. Good luck on Tuesday to you and to all who may read this message. Rob

Maybe the market has decided that it is impressed (as I am impressed) by that one little sentence in the half-year report which informs investors that cash increased by ~ 175,000 GBP from 31.12.2013 to 31.01.2014. I am in agreement with those who sense something good here. In other words, it is my impression that ARC seems to have been working on contracts in the first half that were not executed until the first month following the close of the half year. In my experience, things usually take longer to get done than I hope; but things do often get done. I wish all ARC holders the best in this new week. Rob229

A very busy day for me, so I started early. Not yet 8:00 here, but must get moving. I am happy to learn that you are in life insurance. Not polite to ask many questions here, but maybe you are aiming to be an actuary. That line of work would suit a gentleman who possesses the grasp of figures that you possess. I have always understood that actuaries are very well compensated, and in my opinion, that is your due. I will click back and make sure not to miss a prior post of yours at BMN bb. I know we are nearing 6p there, and I am delighted. I may have found SYQ via my approach of turning over many rocks, but BMN for sure is in my portfolio because you helped me. If I get to England again before too long, I need to find some way to show appreciation. I think that you understand that I am generally not a mining investor, so even though BMN was getting a lot of attention on www.lse.co.uk, I was directing my attention elsewhere. It is surely true that the Warren Buffett fortune has much to do with insurance, and for the reason that you mentioned. Benjamin Graham was an early investor in "GEICO" (Government Employees Insurance Company), and Berkshire Hathaway now owns it outright. I am a GEICO insured, but only for my car. Berkshire is now a very big force in catastrophe reinsurance too, which also has inherently long time-frames until pay-outs. Not funny at all that you have an eye on IQE. Great minds think alike. It may be a low-volatility share, but I foresee improvements there. This morning, I found something else that interests me greatly. TRAP. An offshore oil play, which looks nicely undervalued. An investor with a Scandinavian name which I may spell with an error, Mr Gyllenhammar, just bought 29 million shares. For the half year, I just did my long division, and I see tangible book value of 27.535 million GBP and share count a little over 227 million shares, so that looks to me like 12p. I have to recheck, but I am sure I found positive cash flow for the half year. I should recheck all my figures, but I might enter an order before long. In a perfect world, you could click away from your life insurance endeavors and verify that which I am saying. Shares may be available today a little under 10p. Enjoy the weekend. Investing can consume one's free time, but there is much more to life, as you know. Rob

Good day sir, I have appreciated your recent and very direct responses to an irritating poster on the AVAP board. I preferred not to enter a potential affray there, but I agree completely that the poster is a deramper who possesses limited knowledge. In my opinion, he ought to direct his deramping efforts to a less promising share. Just wondering about your confidence level as to whether Arrowhead shares have been retained either at PEBI or Magma. I guess Magma is substantially the same as PEBI, but I am not completely sure. You might remember that I respect your knowledge greatly. A brief reply at your convenience would be very welcome. Congratulations re MPO. I traded for a little gain, but some China news caused me to exit foolishly. I should have been a cooler head, and I would have prevailed like you. I know (as you surely know) that gambling is a big attraction in that part of the world. Regards, Rob

Me again. SYQ closed strong today, 06 March 2014. I feel that the company has an excellent niche. I am happy, and I am going to hold. I believe that, when you look at FOX, you will note the shrewd observations of the gentleman whom I mentioned a couple of days ago. He is not, in my opinion, a ramper. (BTW, that is a word not used here. I forget the slang they use here.) I think the gentleman has good instincts. Maybe I am biased in his favor because he likes SNTY and a couple of other nicely performing shares that I like too. I never intended to copy him, but he seems to be drawn to companies that I like too. He thinks SNTY has a long way to go. One company that you might like to consider in the semiconductor or wafer business is IQE. They bought a Nasdaq-traded company about 1-2 year ago called Kopin. I was rather confident that IQE was going to bottom at 20p, and it seems to have bottomed at 20.25p. The CEO (or chairman) Andrew _____, has a large position. I think I noticed he added to his position within the past year. Someone posted that IQE would be a terrific acquisition for Intel, which has been late to the mobile-computing party. It may be a low-priced share, but they seem to be quite an established group. I realize that both the upside potential and downside risk are higher with shares priced below 1 GBP. I think that a brainy person like you is able for the most part to avoid the serious problems and wait for the lower-priced shares to rise. I ask myself with regard to a company like CSN, how much profit can one really hope to make? I like to be diversified, and I sense that, unless one invests heavily in a name like that, the profit potential may not be adequate. Still, it does pay a meaningful dividend, and that is a strong point. I should have a look at my North American shares while the market here has three hours to go. One thing I remind myself all the time -- the market does not allow me to be on "Cruise Control." I am not sure that this term is widely used for the cars in England, hopefully you know what I mean. Rob229

After reading your post, I took a little look at Chesnera. Do you have an idea what the name means or where it originates? Little things like that are of interest to me. I was having a little trouble getting everything about CSN in my head. Sometimes, it bothers me when a quoted company uses in its financial reports the letter "m" to mean million. When we learned our our Roman numerals as kids, we learned that M = 1000. Anyway, I need to make sure I understand how much money Chesnera has under management. Managing pensions is a profitable business. If the assets are well managed, assets will remain with the co. for a long time. I see that the subsidiary in Sweden is in the pension business; maybe life insurance too. Not sure yet. I think that, in this country, asset managers routinely trade in the stock market for ca. 1.5% of assets under management. A PE in the high teens is not considered very high because the stream of profits and growth are predictable. As for the life-insurance metric of "embedded value" as discussed in the interim report of CSN, I have to re-learn the meaning. It is something different from tangible book value, but I confess to being unsure of its precise meaning. Maybe you have studied this concept. I see that the directorate at CSN have rather small positions. That is a mildly disconcerting feature. I have a funny saying. I like to be invested along with a directorate who "eat their own cooking." So anyway, CSN requires further study. Maybe I will have time this evening. I wrote you a little note on the BMN bb. Maybe you missed it because, within an hour or two, the top page goes away there. My point is that I see that you are a student of Benjamin Graham. I wished to make sure you know that, although he made his fortune in this country, he was, on 9 May 1894, born in England. In cyberspace, we should, 64 days from now, have a collective toast to a very distinguished dual citizen. FOX feels good to me. I do prefer lower priced shares. Rob

I know for sure that the 1500 @ 132p is a buy. I like this quiet company.

Good evening Dan or (by the time I finish this disquisition) it might be more correct to say good morning. Today was the kind of day in the markets that is not so easy to take. Lots of weakness on account of the events which, thankfully, are well to the east. I am sure that political chat is discouraged here, but there is something about the president of russia that does not suit me. The good news is that various shares strengthened in the afternoon. Praise is due you not just because SYQ and BMN were outperformers today. BMN did indeed tiptoe above 6p for a little while. Re SYQ, I haven't the closing quote at my fingertips, but I think there are three integers to the left of the decimal point. Your willingness to acknowledge that ACD might not be a buy speaks volumes about the scholar that you are. I think that we agree that evaluation of shares is a complicated, time-consuming business. Upon finding a few attractive characteristics about a given share, the predilections which an investor carries with him sometimes distort the process. It takes a big person to say, maybe I was wrong. I make mistakes, and I expect that I will continue to make mistakes. I readily admit that I need all the help I can get. Did you see the filing at about 14:40 today by UBS? The filing states that, on 27.02, UBS added a couple of hundred thousand shares of MOS. I forget the exact number, but I suspect that that is why the share price strengthened near the close. UBS is now holding over 7% of the shares. Funny that Chaarat did not rise today even though gold shares were generally strong. The individual (Dibs61) who likes Charaat likes Fox Marble, symbol FOX. I have been watching this one for a few months. It seems as though it is beginning to move. FOX controls some marble quarries in Kosovo. I understand that it is classified by the stock exchange as a mining company, yet I understand the point made by Dibs61 that it has neither the exploration risk nor the risk which is inherent in a traded commodity like metals or soft commodities. I should not just repeat what others say, but it is said on the FOX bb that the net present value of the assets is (I forget the exact #) either 3 or 4 times the 24 mil. GBP market cap. My sense is that, in time, the market will realize that there is not so much country risk to quarries in Kosovo. The FOX board includes some properly educated English people who hold large stakes. I think the free float is ca. 40%. Perhaps when the market starts to appreciate that the risks are not so great, the shares will appreciate too. You may wish to stay away because a marble quarry seems prosaic and because production is in a beginning phase. I wish to all stronger trading on Tuesday. Rob229

Good evening Sir, I acknowledge your 27.02 message in which you express the view that Putin will not get too aggressive in Ukraine. I hope you are right, but I am wondering whether, now that approximately 2.5 days have passed since the date of your post, the news reports are causing you to think differently. In the most respectful way possible, I say that I would welcome your further thoughts. To me, there is something inscrutable about Putin. I am trying to assess the extent of weakness, if any, that might be seen when the markets open after the conclusion of the weekend. I think I will find myself on Sunday evening checking Asian share quotes. I hold no shares in Asian markets, but I would like to have a little advance understanding regarding possible volatility both in London and in continental Europe. BTW, I write from the US. Regards and thank you very much. Rob229

On an intermittent basis for a couple of months, I have had an eye on FOX. I note with delight your impressions of the potential here. If you would be kind enough to say, I would be curious as to how long you have been invested in shares. I regard you as a very competent analyst. But don't be concerned, I have done my own research. I sense that the fundamentals are good and that momentum will arrive here before long. I agree with your thoughts that FOX should not be classified as a miner. Even if the media continue to classify it as a miner, the investor community may begin to differentiate it before long. At 2:16 this afternoon, I made my initial purchase of FOX shares. I feel lucky to have gotten them a bit below the full offer price. It is not always easy to remember the favorite shares of other investors. I could have clicked on your pen name before beginning this message, but I did not do so. I think you may be interested in SNTY among others. I like that one because the potential in relation to its market cap seems impressive. I wish good things for FOX and for several others which are held in common by you and me. BTW, I write from across the pond. I say this because I wish for readers here not to think I am a poor speller if I omit, for example, the letter "u" in the word "favorable." Regards, Rob229

I decided to take a little time to look before turning out the lights. Almost midnight here. ACD is not an operating company. I forget whether it is classified in London as an investment trust. In NY, it would be classified as a closed-end fund. In any event, it does not feel like a share for me. In the most respectful way, I will tell you why. If you think I am wrong, I am happy to read your further thoughts. In brief, the discount from n.a.v. is about 3 or 4%. I think the half-year report states that the n.a.v. is 107p. The commitment of management to a pay-out to shareholders of 3.75% p.a. does not seem so attractive for a portfolio of distressed securities. (On the other hand, maybe the distressed securities will rise in price; by definition, some distressed fixed-income securities may be in default. So yes, I acknowledge the potential for gain if the distressed securities stop being distressed!) When one purchases ACD shares, one is effectively bearing the cost of at least two (and in some cases three) layers of management fees. I say this because a review of the half-year report tells me that the investments that ACD holds are generally in (a) hedge funds and (b) "funds of funds." So the individual holder of ACD shares is exposed to multiple fees. I am not criticizing the people who run hedge funds, but I think it is widely understood that the people who engage in that line of work are very handsomely paid. In effect, they are probably being compensated with at least two hundred basis points out of the gross interest earned by the portfolio. I question whether there is significant upside for the public shareholder of ACD. I suppose the n.a.v. could rise some more, but on the other hand, distressed securities are subject to reorganization risk. I have some experience analyzing fixed-income securities. A gentleman who has your prodigious talent for finding quality shares that are ready to rise could quickly adapt to the analysis of fixed-income securities yielding more than 3.75%. For beginners, I look at the annual interest expense for the past three years, and I look at the cash flow from operations in each of those years. I look for a margin of safety. (I note that you are very familiar with this important concept.) Depending on the cyclicality or non-cyclicality of the business, I find that I am comfortable with a ratio of 3 to 1 or perhaps 2 to 1. This is not the entire analysis, but it is a good part of it. If you think I am missing something, please challenge me. Rob