RE: Who says it has gone wrong27 Mar 2026 20:13
Over the last couple of weeks I've done an AI analysis of the trades in this stock, both on a daily basis and across several days. AI is rubbish in some respects. But it's really good at crunching numbers.
The results have been consistent.
- The activity is not retail. It's algorithmic and controlled.
- There's a large seller. AI reckons the seller has now exited. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
- There's a buyer or perhaps more than one.
But the selling hasn't been completely absorbed, hence the near 40% drop in the SP in two weeks.
Today's analysis suggests that the price will now stabilise and climb slowly as the new buyer(s) accumulate. I hope that's correct, but even if it is, there won't be a significant improvement until the float has been absorbed.
My overall view of this project is that it's going to fail.
I believe the finance won't be signed off. The chairman's demeanour in his last interview suggests he thinks that too.
The appeal for me, was that a mine could be built without massive investment. If even a small sum can't be raised then we're screwed.
There could be a placing to keep the lights on, but the whole thing can't be funded that way. The dilution would wipe everyone out.
Even if funding is secured, it might not be enough to rescue the SP in the short term. General investors would want to see a return on investment before buying in, and that won't be until the end of the year. Do you really fancy having your cash tied up for another nine months?
More generally, the smart money is getting out of copper. In March there were $11 billion in outflows from commodity based ETFs.
I've long thought that the forecasts for the price of copper were not realistic. They were based on very faulty assumptions. Now someone agrees with me.
https://www.mining.com/macquarie-says-copper-is-oversupplied-and-overpriced/
Now you might say that the calculations of profitably were based much lower copper prices than those prevalent now, and you'd be right, but the stock market runs on sentiment, and that's very much against this share and most of the others in this sector.
Constructive comments welcome, whether you're in agreement or not, which rules out the children who've been tossing around silly insults in the past few days.