Member Info for rivaldo

A positive AGM statement, leaving room for upgrades as the year progresses.

Consensus of Cavendish's and Edison's forecasts for this year is 40.5p EPS, which puts BMS on a current year P/E of only 7.4.

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/braemar-BMS/share-news/Braemar-PLC-AGM-Statement/94140383

"Braemar Plc, a leading provider of expert investment, chartering and risk management advice, provides the following trading update ahead of its Annual General Meeting to be held later today.

Further to the update provided in the FY24 results announcement issued on 23 May 2024, the board is pleased to report that the Group has continued to trade well and that performance in FY25 to date is in line with expectation1. The Group remains focused on its stated growth strategy and the board looks to the year ahead and beyond with confidence.

Company compiled consensus as at the date of this announcement: FY25 revenue of £152.7m and FY25 underlying operating profit (before acquisition-related expenditure) of £18.2m."

"Peel Hunt: Hvivo proves its ‘unique’ offering

Laboratory services group Hvivo (HVO) has signed a new contract that shows this ‘unique’ company has potential for expansion, says Peel Hunt.

Analyst Miles Dixon reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 36p on the stock, which has signed a new contract with a US company that will see it enrol 1,000 patients and recruit them for a study at the end of the year.

Dixon said this was ‘clearly a positive development… as it alludes to additional avenues for growth and operating leverage to come’.

‘We continue to believe Hvivo has a unique offering and that there is room to expand its full-year 2024 enterprise valueto [pre-tax profit] multiple of 11.3 times, with risks to the upside on forecasts too,’ he said.

The shares added 1.5% to 27.4p on Tuesday."

Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-sage-craneware-quilter-sainsbury-s-hvivo/a2445637?page=5

Cavendish have reiterated their 40p target price - note the 90% of forecast revnues for this year already secured.

They summarise:

"- Study to start in Q4 2024, with the majority of revenue recognition in 2025. As per the FY2023A results release, HVO already has 90% of its £62m FY2024E revenue guidance contracted, with good visibility in to 2025, which this contract will enhance. The company’s expertise in the rapid and efficient recruitment of patients using its FluCamp services, a database which contains 300,000 potential volunteers and has the ability to screen an additional 1,500 per month, was a key determinant in winning the contract.

- Capital Markets Day coming on 17 July. We would expect to hear more details regarding this new revenue stream at the CMD, which is taking place in two weeks at the company’s new Canary Wharf facility, as well as an update on current trading conditions.

- HVO is strongly positioned for future growth. The company operates in a structurally attractive HCT industry that demonstrates strong organic growth. It is a world leader, with unique benefits versus its competitors, and as such is in demand from pharma companies. 2024 targets point to another year of strong revenue and profit growth, with a history of over-delivery. Longer-term targets have been set that we believe are achievable, and offer double-digit compound revenue, profit and cash flow growth, and the company has established a progressive dividend policy after the special paid in 2023.

The establishment of a new potential revenue stream recruiting field study patients increases our confidence that the long-term targets are achievable."

Nice:

"This is our largest field study contract to date, further evidencing the recognition we have earned for our highly effective recruitment capabilities and also opens up a new growth opportunity for the Group."

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/hvivo-HVO/share-news/hVIVO-PLC-Influenza-2b-field-study-contract/94132464

"While the shares have had a good run over recent months, they remain well down on previous highs and this business continues to look ridiculously cheap on many levels. The Group's multi-product tailored offering to UK SMEs, its own-book lending strategy and its quality of service have become ever more appreciated by introducers and we struggle to believe the shares can remain at these lowly levels for much longer. If they continue to languish, an acquirer will surely pounce."

FYI Investors Champion (paid for tip site) update on Time Finance from 27th June:

HTtps://www.investorschampion.com/channel/blog/bonkers-bargains-1pm

Trading update for the year ended 31 May 2024 (27/06/24)

TIME delivered significant increases across its key performance indicators, with revenue and profitability ahead of market expectations.

Supported by Own-Book deal origination up 25% to £91.5m and 18% growth in the Gross Lending Book to £200m, revenue rose 20% to £33.0m and pre-tax profit was 38% higher at £5.8m. In a challenging environment this is impressive growth, ahead of expectations.

The increase in revenue has been primarily driven by the growth in both the Invoice Finance division and the 'Hard Asset' subset of the wider Asset division. They are both areas which operate in the larger-ticket, more secured lending space, and they now comprise over 75% of the Group's entire lending book.

There is strong future visibility of earnings with Unearned Income up 19% to £25.2m at 31 May 2024.

Despite the big growth in the lending book, net deals in arrears reduced to 5% of the gross lending book while net bad debt write-offs halved to just 1% of the average lending book (FY 2022/23: 2%).

Net tangible assets at the May year end were 13% higher at £38.5m, marginally greater than the current market capitalisation of £37m (share price 40 pence).

Extended and enhanced funding facilities means they still had headroom in excess of £60m at 31 May 2024.

Broker forecasts

Following the trading update covering the 12 months to the end of May 2024 (see above), the house broker upgraded forecasts again. For the year ending May 2024 these are for revenue of £33m, pre-tax profit of £5.8m and earnings per share of 4.7 pence (growth 34%).

For May 2025 forecasts were also lifted to revenue of £34.5m, pre-tax profit to £6.9m and earnings per share of 5.6 pence (growth +19%).

With the significant government support packages no longer in place post-Covid, and with the ever-increasing economic challenges facing small businesses, access to finance will be a key priority for SMEs over the coming months and years.

Bonkers Bargain appeal

At the current share price of 40p (initially 17p) the market capitalisation is still a lowly c£37m, a c4% discount to net tangible assets at 31 May 2024 of £38.5m, which has also been subjected to meaningful provisions. Despite the strong share price performance over the past 12 months the PE multiple is a lowly 7x forecast earnings for the year to May 2025. Prior to the pandemic impacting returns, which pulled down earnings per share to 2.6p for the year ending May 2020, this business consistently delivered earnings of more than 6p and 6.8p in 2019 - net income of £6.35m. This equates to a normalised price earnings multiple of approx 6.6x."

Firstly, a nice 8 year water sector framework from Thames Water:

Https://browne.co.uk/news-blog/7mffzo5tdzmm5qbsj8je5ablyq4a6y

"June 26, 2024

We are delighted to confirm that Browne has been awarded a place on the £167m FA1756 Non-Infrastructure Medium Projects - Runway 1 Civils Framework by Thames Water.

The framework involves the design, construction, and commissioning of above ground non-infrastructure projects across Thames Water's clean and wastewater non-infrastructure assets.

The individual works, valued between £250k and £5m, include the refurbishment, replacement and provision of new potable water and wastewater treatment assets, plus service and storage reservoirs.

We look forward to bringing our innovative approach to deliver successful and sustainable outcomes during AMP8 for our new client, Thames Water. We will work closely over the term of the 8-year framework to drive efficiency, sustainability, and resilience across their operations."

Secondly, rail electrification work in Scotland:

Hhttps://projectscot.com/2024/06/major-140m-railway-project-set-for-three-days-of-continuous-work/

"East Kilbride to Glasgow rail electrification work gathers pace

25 June 2024

ENGINEERS are to work ‘around-the-clock’ from July 19 until 22 to support the electrification of the East Kilbride to Glasgow railway line.

Network Rail will work alongside contractors, SPL Powerlines, Story, AmcoGiffen, Siemens, and QTS to deliver a range of works across the three days – which includes the installation of the remaining steel pile foundations between Busby and Thornliebank.

etc"

Another £147,500 of shares bought back at 1475p:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Transaction-in-Own-Shares/94120665

That's around £1.29m now bought back since March.

Major investee company PDI's share price has dipped recently, but rose almost 10% last night on good drilling results from Bankan in Guinea.

More importantly, CAPD are the drilling contractor and there's lots going on and to look forward to:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02821511-6A1213265

"Managing Director Andrew Pardey, said:

“With PDI’s PFS outlining attractive optimisation opportunities from further resource development work, we have renewed our focus on this as we move forward with the early stages of our DFS field work.”

“The initial results at BC are very encouraging and confirm there is potential to upgrade Inferred Mineral Resources just below the PFS pit designs, which could ultimately lead to an increase in the current 207Koz BC Ore Reserve.1

Encouragingly, drilling also encountered positive intercepts outside the overall Mineral Resource estimate.”

“We are also pleased to advance the 800W and SB targets from exploration to resource development drilling.”

Also FYI, CAPD have around a £1.8m investment in Firefinch. Firefinch are to be delisted from the ASX due to the shares having been suspended from quotation for 2 years due to the difficulties with its resource in Mali.

Counter-intuitively, this situation looks good for CAPD, as Firefinch's assets of the Morila mine and its 17.6% stake in Leo Lithium are being sold/distributed and should result in a decent payout for CAPD:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02821860-6A1213364

More good news - and Curveball Leisure are a good-sized operator, with £97.8m turnover last year (up from £52.7m the previous year):

Https://www.touchstar.co.uk/blog/order-curveball

Extracts:

"Rugged Mobile Computers: Curveball Leisure Chooses TouchStar and Zebra TC21 for Warehouse Efficiency

27 June 2024

TouchStar Technologies, a leading provider of rugged mobile computer solutions based in the UK, is delighted to announce the addition of Curveball Leisure to their customer portfolio. Curveball, a worldwide distributor of video games and consumer electronics, has selected TouchStar for a technology rollout of the latest rugged handheld devices to support real-time efficiencies and accuracy within their picking and put-away processes."

"Richard Pearce, Operations and Supply Manager at Curveball Leisure, comments, “Having used RF technology within a previous company, I knew the benefits that this would offer to Curveball in terms of further process improvements. Removal of paper, transparency, and increasing picking speeds were just a few areas we were looking to improve. Having worked with TouchStar in the past, I knew they would provide the expertise in the device specification process and be able to assist us with the right level of support to ensure a smooth rollout of the final proposed solution."

Tipped overnight by Simon Thompson in the IC - subscriber-only though, so I can only access the intro:

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/06/27/this-lender-has-upgraded-earnings-again-and-it-s-easy-to-see-why/

"This lender has upgraded earnings again – and it's easy to see why

Guidance has been upgraded three times since November and economic tailwinds should keep the party going

June 27, 2024

by Simon Thompson

Third earnings upgrade since November 2023

Profit expectations upgraded for 2024 and 2025 financial years

Arrears and bad debts declining as percentage of loan book

Forward PE ratio of 7 and 13 per cent discount to NAV

Time Finance (TIME:41p) has upgraded earnings guidance for the third time since November 2023 and prompted analysts to lift their estimates for both the 2024 and 2025 financial years, too.

The Bath-based group is an alternative provider of finance to the high street and challenger banks. Specifically, it provides three main finance products – invoice finance, asset finance and loan finance – to more than 10,000 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for their day-to-day working capital requirements and to grow their businesses over the longer term."

Excellent news - Nat Rothschild has taken a 3.62% stake in SYS through his vehicle NR Holdings Ltd, buying 3m shares:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/sysgroup-SYS/share-news/SysGroup-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/94116206

"Sea freight rates spike with peak season on the horizon

transinfo: 7.06.2024

Eye-opening increases in sea freight rates have been ongoing for over two weeks, coming as something of a bolt from the blue. Rising demand, an insufficient supply of ships, and a shortage of containers at major export ports in Asia have contributed to rising prices in recent weeks. In the first week of June, prices went crazy again and returned to double-digit increases. In the latest reading of Drewry’s WCI index from June 6, from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the price was already $6,032 – 14% more week-to-week. From China to Genoa, the increase was even greater at 17%, up to $6,664 per container.

On routes from Asia to North America, increases were more moderate – 6% to New York and 11% to Los Angeles. In total, the global WCI index increased by 14% to $4,716. Nevertheless, the increase recorded over the last two months brings to mind the gigantic jumps in rates during the pandemic. Looking at the route from Asia to Northern Europe (currently over $6,000), on April 1, the Drewry index for this direction was $3,349! Year on year, the current rate to Rotterdam is 315% higher and to Genoa by 214%. The summer peak season is just getting started, which will maintain high demand for transport capacity. However, these capacities are almost exhausted."

Https://www.touchstar.co.uk/blog/atf

Extracts:

"ATF - further upgrades to Fuelstar Android fuel delivery system

26 June 2024"

"The solution

Initially starting with a small number of mobile computers on the ground fuel side of the business, ATF Fuels were able to trial the FuelStar software and validate its effectiveness for their operation. Now, every vehicle in their fleet uses TouchStar technology as an integral part of their delivery processes. Orders and schedules are automatically uploaded from the back office to the drivers’ tablets through TouchStar technology, and the admin staff at the office receive automatic updates as each driver progresses through their deliveries.

As well as seamless communication and complete transparency, this system allows ATF to be more agile in their customer servicing. If, for example, a customer needs an urgent delivery, office staff can see exactly how much fuel each vehicle has and reallocate resources as necessary to meet a critical request.

ATF Fuels initially implemented the Android software throughout their aviation fuel fleet ahead of rolling it out to their other vehicles which still used the older Microsoft technology. While there was a straight plug-and-play approach to installing the Microsoft software, ATF Fuels required a level of customisation in the Android technology to allow their drivers to create jobs on the go, which was of course provided by Touchstar as part of the installation. After many years of operating successfully with the original Android in-cab devices, ATF have recently commissioned a technology refresh and replaced the old devices with the latest generation Touchstar TS3300 model, supplemented with Zebra ZQ-521 thermal receipt printers.

On the new Android hardware, Neil said “the system does everything the team needs it to do – it’s a solid piece of kit and works well. Everyone seems happy with the latest update.” ATF Fuels opted for a solution from TouchStar because they knew they had “a tried and tested system that is well-used within the industry” as well as a reputation of plug and play, so they knew they could get their fleet upgraded with the new hardware very quickly."

On a current year PE of only 7.2 at 41.5p, and with net cash pencilled in at £5.4m against a £37m m/cap, then the shares continue to look extremely cheap.

Cavendish's 71p target price would still only represent a P/E of 12.2.

Terrific stuff, as usual.

Cavendish have raised their forecast for the current year to May'25 by 10% to 5.8p EPS, so the rating here looks extremely good value.

Their target price is 71p.

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/time-finance-TIME/share-news/Time-Finance-PLC-Trading-Update-and-Notice-of-Final-Results/94108369

"Time Finance plc, the AIM listed independent specialist finance provider, is pleased to issue the following trading update for the financial year ended 31 May 2024 ("FY 2023/24"). In FY 2023/24, the Company delivered significant increases across its key performance indicators, with revenue and profitability ahead of market expectations.

The results reflect the continued success of the Company's strategic focus on own-book lending to UK businesses. This approach has seen the Lending Book reach an all-time high of c£200m."

"Ed Rimmer, Chief Executive Officer commented:

"I am delighted to provide this trading update in respect of Time's full-year results which clearly demonstrate the ongoing success of the Group's strategy. To have delivered such growth, despite wider macroeconomic headwinds, is testament to the hard work of our team, to the clear focus on our strategy and the strong demand for finance from UK businesses which continue to prove remarkably robust. What is especially pleasing is that the performance is based on maintaining appropriate margins, underwriting robustly and in keeping a wide spread of risk. As a result, I am confident the Group is well positioned for future growth and in delivering further increased shareholder value."

Great to see the esteemed Christopher Harwood/Rockwood buying in and now with over 4%, or 10.77m shares - he's cleared out Downing's stake:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/national-world-NWOR/share-news/National-World-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/94090181

The clearance of Downing's overhang should greatly help sentiment - and hopefully the currently meagre rating.

The forecast for this year is 3.1p EPS, putting the stock on a multiple of only 5.3. There's no pension debt and a dividend yield of well ove 4%. And that's even before taking into account the cash pile, which is forecast at £14.1m for the year end - almost a third of the entire m/cap!

Nice positive turnaround today, and on decent early volumes again on a quiet day on the markets, continuing on from a great rise yesterday.

New contract wins just announced - $650,000 of 5G antennas for India:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-Contract-wins/94095958

The important thing is not the quantum of the wins, but the signal that the huge Inidan market is now gearing up:

"MTI Wireless Edge Ltd (AIM: MWE), the technology group focused on comprehensive communication and radio frequency solutions across multiple sectors, is pleased to announce that it has received two orders, totaling $650,000, from Indian clients for its 5G antenna solution. The orders are expected to be fulfilled in the current financial year.

Commenting on the contract wins, Moni Borovitz, CEO, said: "These orders, which are in line with our expectations, show increasing activity in the Group's Indian market. I am pleased to see our Antenna division progressing in India, a large-scale area of opportunity for MTI."

Power demand has been high for 30 days in a row, so presumably OPG be benefiting materially:

Https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/delhi-heatwave-claims-at-least-20-lives-hospitals-overwhelmed-amid-power-demand-surges/articleshow/111125845.cms?from=mdr

"Delhi Heatwave: Record Power Demand Amidst Scorching Temperatures

The extreme heat has also caused Delhi's power demand to reach unprecedented levels. On Tuesday afternoon, the demand peaked at 8,647MW, surpassing the previous record of 8,302MW set last month.

Power distribution companies attribute this surge to the heatwave, growing population, urbanization, and increased use of electronic devices and air conditioners.

"Records have been broken eight times this summer after the peak power load first crossed 8,000MW on May 22. For 30 days in a row this season, Delhi's peak power demand was above 7,000MW," said a discom official."