Good summary in Shares Magazine4 Feb 2016 11:09
today:
"Lakehouse sell-off overdone
OLD 2016 FORECASTS
Earnings per share 12.4p
Dividend per share 4.2p
NEW 2016 FORECASTS
Earnings per share 9.9p
Dividend per share 3.5p
Source: Peel Hunt
A shock collapse in the share price of social housing specialist Lakehouse (LAKE) should be leaving investors scratching their heads.
Based on earnings forecasts for the financial year to 30 September 2016,
Lakehouse traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of eight before a trading update released on 1 February 2016. After the statement, when shares plunged 60% to 35p because of a slowdown in Lakehouse’s Regeneration division, the business
now trades at three-and-a-half times earnings – even on downgraded forecasts. Either the market or the forecasts are wrong.
The answer, in our view, is a bit of both and overall we are bullish on the stock. While it is possible earnings per share forecasts from house broker Peel Hunt will fall further from a revised 9.9p (down from 12.4p), we don’t
anticipate Lakehouse facing the kind of existential threat its market value now seems to imply.
This is a business with a high quality, well aligned management team, a reasonably strong balance sheet and a presence in markets that should be fairly predictable over the longer term.
Management is a particular strength at Lakehouse. Executive chairman Stuart Black, former chief executive of market leading social housing and home care outfit Mears (MER), has set out a clear strategy to build the business via acquisition through the £23.1 million of funds raised via a March 2015 IPO, as well as a £45 million debt facility.
Lakehouse has grown from a £50 million turnover business in 2009 when Black took the top job to a national contractor delivering £340 million in sales in the last 12 months. Founder and philanthropist Steven Rawlings, who is no longer involved in the day-to-day running of the business, owns 15.5%. And a
number of current managers of the business also have personal shareholdings totaling at least 18%.
Lakehouse’s balance sheet is not exactly the Rock of Gibraltar but it’s not dangerously weak either. Joining the market in March 2015, it started life as a public company with no debt and reported a net cash position of £6.6 million
in full-year results reported in December 2015.
Two acquisitions that totalled £12.2 million post-year-end may see the business move into a net debt position when interim results are
reported later this year.
It’s worth noting that Mears, operating in a similar market, runs net debt at around 1.4 time earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), indicating considerable further borrowing capacity at Lakehouse, if required.
Finally, Lakehouse operates in markets with recurring revenue, underpinned by government spend which is generally non-discretionary in nature. Housing regeneration, compliance with