New tip for SOM part 112 May 2016 09:44
Excellent new article tipping SOM:
Http://www.stockopedia.com/content/stock-in-focus-portfolio-double-dipping-with-glaxosmithkline-and-somero-enterprises-131015/
"Smooth operator could beat expectations
Somero Enterprises is the dominant player in the market for using laser-guided screeding machines to produce perfectly flat concrete floors for industrial buildings.
The firm last featured in this column in December, when I raised concerns about the cyclical risks of investing at what might be a relatively late stage in the cycle. Ironically, I’m less concerned about this now than I was then.
There are several reasons for this. Firstly, I’m trying to break out of the classic value investing trap of buying too soon on the way down, and selling too soon on the way up. A second reason for my confidence in Somero is that the firm produced a stonking set of 2015 results along with very confident guidance for the year ahead:
“We see 2016 as an exciting year full of opportunity. We believe we are well positioned to capitalize on expected growth in our core US and other existing markets, extend our global footprint and grow revenues from new products. Most importantly, we look forward to delivering another year of superior results for our shareholders.”
I also gained confidence after reading the transcript of Small Cap Editor Paul Scott’s interview with Somero’s CEO and CFO, which took place in January. This really provides a lot more detail and colour on the firm’s competitive advantage and on how management sees the market opportunity in the US and overseas. It’s well worth a few minutes of your time (as of course is all of Paul’s small cap coverage).
A fine set of figures
Stockopedia continue to rank Somero highly, with a StockRank of 98. Last year’s figures have now been assimilated into the firm’s StockReport. Rather than analyse them from scratch, I’ve decided to compare them to the StockReport I used back in December. What’s changed?
Back in December, Somero traded on a rolling forecast P/E of 8.9. Although the shares have risen by 22% since then, rising earnings guidance means that today’s forecast P/E is almost unchanged at 9.3. Forecast yield is also unchanged, at 3.4%.
Somero’s earnings per share dipped in 2015, but it’s worth noting that operating profit rose strongly. The fall in net profit appears mainly to be the result of Somero spending around $4.2m on new building facilities. These are being funded out of free cash flow, which is currently very strong. Net cash doubled from $6m to $12.6m last year, despite this investment.
Last year’s rise in capex is nothing to worry about.
Somero’s ValueRank has fallen from 78 to 71 since I last looked at the firm, but I’m not concerned by this small change. The fundamentals remain solid and very appealing, in my view. "