Positive report from Hybridan9 Jun 2016 14:42
Excellent report from Hybridan here. With the core business on a P/E below 10, a large cash pile, good visibility of revenues and Innovenn in the price for free, the upside here could be substantial.
http://www.iii.co.uk/category/author/hybridan
"The growing European Contract Research Organisation (CRO) has reported final results for the year to December 2015. Revenue growth of 135% to €11.47m exceeded our already upgraded revenue forecast of €11.2m. Underlying Group EBITDA showed a €1.9m swing from a €1.53m loss to a profit of €0.39m vs our forecast of €0.49m. We attribute this shortfall to development costs at Innovenn. EBITDA attributable to the CRO business was €0.8m. Depreciation and amortisation charges were €0.46m vs our expectation of €0.22m. The company underwent a step change in scale via the acquisition of Kinesis in Q4 which we understand contributed circa 12% to FY revenues owing to the short period under ownership.
With €4.4m revenue booked in Q1 vs €2m in Q1 2015, and the commencement of successful cross selling of services across the enlarged client base, we have confidence in our €17m FY2016 revenue forecast, growth of 48% which we forecast to result in a more than fourfold jump in underlying EBITDA to €1.75m and an adjusted profit of €1.6m equating to adjusted EPS of €0.027c reaching €0.032c by 2018. There is however scope for faster revenue growth and greater margin progression.
The company finished the year with cash balances of €3.8m, a strong base from which to negotiate potential acquisition opportunities in Central and Eastern Europe that are being explored as well as selective organic expansion into other areas. Innovenn, Venn’s innovation division, has made good progress with both Labskin and Clarogel through their development phases. These are currently being commercialised.
Venn intends to reposition this business such that it has an independent footing, its own source of funding and a value that can be clearly established. The shares are on an adjusted PE multiple of 12.4x for 2016. Innovenn made an EBITDA loss this year of €0.44m. If we simply add back a similar figure to our forecast for next year this puts the company on a sub 10x PE rating, as if it were the CRO business on its own. Even at a share price of 43p (74% above the current share price) this rating is only at 16x these pro-forma earnings broadly in line at the sector, and does not take into account any separate value for Innovenn which has two differentiated market ready integumentary products targeting growing markets."
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