Optiva note re 32p price target18 Apr 2017 10:52
FYI here's Optiva's update from last week - they have a 32p target and have DKL on a current year P/E of just 4.5:
"The Ayenouan project is proving to be a cash cow
Ticker: DKL LN
Mkt Cap: £38.5m
Shares Out: 296m
Q1 Production Update:
DekelOil (“Company”) has reported record production and material sales growth in Q1 2017.
Total revenue in Q1 2017 was significantly higher by 37% at €9.7m, when compared to Q1 2016 and beat Optiva’s estimates of €9.1m. Record quarterly CPO production at 16,398 tonnes, which is 8.3% higher when compared to Q1 2016 and surpassed Optiva’s estimates of 14,335 tonnes. PKO production was reported at 996 tonnes, which was flat when compared to Q1 2016, however the average PKO sales price was 35% higher at $1,008 per tonne. The management believe they are set to move forward with the expansion phase.
Strong revenue has been predominantly driven by higher palm oil prices and to some extent the optimisation of their ground operations. CPO prices have surged significantly since June 2016 where it was trading around $550m/t, but moved higher and recently traded around $750m/t back in February 2017. We maintain our bullish stance on palm oil prices in the short term on the back of tight supply, weaker ringgit and higher biodiesel mandates. The management has done extremely well to optimise operations by boosting the extraction rates of CPO and PKO. The acquisition of an Empty Fruit Press (‘EFP’), which became operational in March 2017 could boost underlying profits by at least €500k in in first full year of operation.
The financial year-end results for 2016 are expected to be announced over the next 8 weeks and we estimate total revenues of around €26m, EBIT of €4.8m and underlying profits of €3.7m. In 2017, we forecast total revenues of €32m, EBIT of 11m, and underlying profits of around €10m. The management’s recent announcement of a progressive dividend policy and a maiden dividend of £500,000 will put the Company on a dividend yield of around 1.4% based on the current share price.
Based on our 2017 forecasts, Dekeloil trades on a P/E of 4.5x, compared to London peers trading on an average of 17x. In our view, this is unjustified based on how much the Company has advanced from a palm oil developer to a sustainable profitable producer. DekelOil presents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking a balance of capital and income growth. We maintain our price target of 32 pence per share."