WH Ireland: Buy with 42p target27 Sep 2017 08:50
Enough time has passed since publication to post WH Ireland's post-interims views.
They see 2.12p EPS this year rising to 2.31p EPS next year. At 25.25p that's a forward fully diluted P/E of only 10.9 now, and an adjusted EV/EBITDA of less than 6. The order book has increased by 20% to £24m since the start of the year, giving excellent forward visibility:
"Petards*
Interims illustrate good progress; order book +20%
Petards supplies advanced security and surveillance systems to the Transport, Defence and Emergency Services markets. H1 2017A results demonstrate a creditable performance, with growth in Transport and Emergency Services more than making up for a reduction in Defence sales. The order book has increased by 20% since the beginning of the year to £24m, providing excellent visibility over the next 18 months, including £8m order coverage for H2 2017E. Following the results, we have left our revenue and profitability forecasts unchanged, whilst reducing our year-end net cash expectation to reflect the increase in working capital and higher capex in the year. We maintain our Buy recommendation and 42p share price target.
H1 2017A revenue increased by 8.1% to £8.0m, reflecting good performances in Transport, which accounted for almost two thirds of Group revenue, and Emergency Services, offset by lower activity in Defence, albeit with the latter ending the period strongly. The gross margin moved 340bps higher to 38.6%, this reflecting the fact that two of the six major eyeTrain contracts were nearing completion. Administration costs increased by £432k, in part reflecting a full period of costs from QRO, along with higher depreciation and amortisation following increased investment. PBT of £503k was 5.9% ahead of the prior six month period, with diluted EPS moving 3.2% higher to 0.98p. The Group ended the period with a net cash position of £33k (FY 2016A £0.8m), reflecting an increase of £1.1m in working capital and total capex of £585k, principally relating to three major eyeTrain orders. Management expects to see positive cashflows from these eyeTrain contracts in H2 2018E.
The order book is reported to have increased by 20% to £24m as at 30 June, with eyeTrain accounting for more than 75% of this and including Stadler Bussnang AG on the list of customers for the first time. H2 2017E order coverage presently stands at £8m, with approaching £11m secured for FY 2018E.
On the back of the results, we have left our revenue and profitability forecasts unchanged. However, given the anticipated working capital and capex requirements, we have reduced our year-end net cash forecast by £0.9m to £0.3m before expecting to see an improvement in H2 2018E. The shares currently trade on a FY 2017E fully diluted adjusted PER of 13.8x and adjusted EV/EBITDA of 6.0x. Given the level of secured work, in addition to the pipeline of opportunities, we believe t