RE: New Finncap Buy note today28 Nov 2017 10:04
Here's the summary page from the new Finncap note with the 586p target price FYI:
"Essential services carefully selected
BUY
Renew provides essential repair and maintenance services for UK infrastructure. These are very large, long-term markets providing significant potential for growth, but the key to Renew�s model is being selective with a focus on profits rather than just sales. Hence, while underlying Engineering Services sales in FY 2017 were flat, underlying EBIT was up +12% and total EPS up 17%. With very high and rising ROCE, strong cash flow characteristics and the potential from large, defensive long-term markets, we reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Essential services. Renew repairs and maintains the UK�s infrastructure. It has a strong position in the rail, nuclear energy and water markets, providing mechanical, electrical and civil engineering services.
Large end markets. Renew provides its work through framework agreements that typically last for 3-5 years, but the requirement for the work will continue
indefinitely. For instance, �3bn p.a. is being spent on nuclear decommissioning
and Network Rail has �48bn of funding for 2019-24 (up from �41bn).
Rising margins. Evidencing Renew's selective approach, operating margins rose to 4.6% in FY 2017 (2016: 4.2%) and are up from 3.5% three years ago. The risk to these margins is relatively low with the vast majority of work completed on a cost reimbursable or plus basis.
Strong cash flow. Despite the acquisition of Giffen requiring a working capital
injection in FY 2017 (as planned), operating profit conversion into cash has
averaged 103% over the past three years.
Highly differentiated. Renew employs staff directly, uses relatively little capital and completes relatively small, repeatable jobs in regulated industries where health & safety and technical competence are key. This is very different to the majority of contractors.
Target price of 586p supported by free cash flow and ROCE. We maintain our target price of 586p, which now equates to a mkt. cap/FCF of 22.4x in calendar 2017. This is still a 9% discount to wider contracting peers who generally have a much poorer track record and very different risk profile."