Tipped in April SCSW issue22 May 2019 13:27
"Kape - Technologies Sales to grow 48% this year
92p Epic code: KAPE
(Sharewatch) The booming cyber security sector in the US has been well-documented with the market worth US$153bn and expected to grow by 52% by 2022. One company that specialises in cyber security and looks cheap is Kape (KAPE; 92p) and during the month I met with chief executive Ido Erlichman following 2018 results.
Kape uses a network of thousands of affiliates to sell software subscriptions for internet security products, for instance, across publisher websites such as PC Magazine and TechRadar (part of Future Plc), with which it has revenue sharing arrangements. Since Erlichman joined three years ago he has completed a string of acquisitions - Cyberghost and ZenMate, which are two suppliers of VPN privacy software and also Intego, a supplier of malware protection, antivirus and firewall software, which supplemented the existing performance software division (clean up software for computers that might be running slow due to corrupted software). Erlichman knows a good thing when he sees it. He points out that the beauty of all his businesses is the great margins and that customers carry on paying for use of the software.
The scope of the transformation is mind blowing but that doesn’t come across at first glance at the 2018 figures with Kape reporting sales of US$52.1m and profit of US$8.8m. First, Zenmate and Intego were only in for a part period - two and five months, respectively. Second, Kape invested US$10.2m in growing its customer base in 2018. Typically it might spend US$100 under its affiliate model to get a new customer but only recoups US$85 in the first year. This depressed reported profits by c.US$1.5m. By month 15, however, Kape has recovered everything. In fact it is capitalising part of the cost and writing it off over 22 months, after which there is no associated cost of acquisition, so this falls straight to the bottom line. Average customer lifetimes suggest that for US$100 spent on marketing Cyberghost, for instance, it recovers US$300 over six years.
The proportion of customers now paying on a continuous basis has soared from 14% a year ago to 53% and is set to hit 70% by 2020. Last year Kape added 529,000 new users organically and 197,000 through acquisitions, taking the total to 830,000. Things are stepping up a gear now. It already has 45 staff in Tel Aviv focused on innovation, 80 in Bucharest focused on infrastructure management and 200 in Manilla to support the customer base. This allows acquisitions to become hugely accretive in its hands - Zenmate, which was lossmaking on a standalone basis, became instantly profitable and is the dress rehearsal for a bigger VPN acquisition in due course.
Even without more eps enhancing deals, forecasts are for sales soaring to US$77.3m, pretax profit to US$12.6m and eps to 5.1p this year and US$88.1m/US$16.3m/7p next. The PE ratio drops to 10.1 next year when you exclude the US$40.4m cash (21p pe