RE: Trading update1 Aug 2019 00:00
Downing Strategic's quarterly investor letter to 30/6/19 (so issued before the latest in-line trading update) has some interesting reflections on GMAA. This is the conclusion:
"The results themselves, restatements and missed expectations aside, show some promising signs of growth in parts of the Management business (8% fleet growth in US and Europe, and doubling in Asia). The key is really to get scale in these businesses and to see the operational gearing start to come through. It’s a tough market but we think that there is a compelling business opportunity to scale up in Asia particularly, and the Hutchison relationship could help that. Over the long term, we still think consolidation is viable. There have been strategic changes in the Maintenance business, such as moving to Bournemouth and investment in new US facilities, both of which sound like the right long term moves but which bear the restructuring costs and operating cost investment through the P&L in the nearer term.
We think that the Maintenance proposition is a good one, bolstered by some very material special missions’ contracts. Gama has been winning contracts recently – two new ones total over $100 million over the life of the contracts. Elsewhere, cash generation was negatively affected by a large working capital outflow, but
we expect the debtors portion to reverse as debts are collected against a few larger customers. The balance is reflective of investment for growth, particularly inventories in new maintenance locations.
2019 will be a year of transition and rebasing of financials, as clearly some of the reporting practices of the past were not prudent. The half year results should give a better indication of what the business is really capable of, alongside, we hope, confirmation from the new chairman of the strategic plan.
In our view, there remain real opportunities to improve margins and cash generation across the business. M&A activity in the sector remains buoyant and multiples are generous for businesses with scale. This gives us confidence in the strategic value of the group as a fall-back valuation. The de-geared balance sheet and Hutchison’s interest provide comfort while the business transitions."