Numis upgrade to buy, 900p price target17 May 2022 10:17
Numis have retained their 900p target price - and have now upgraded to Buy (from Add).
They note that their unchanged forecasts are conservative, given that the H1 actuals therefore imply a forecast 4% decline in EBITA in H2! In addition, last year's numbers split 47%/53% H1/H2, so the seasonality further indicates that the year's outturn should be pretty strong against forecasts.
Numis summarise:
"Renew's 1H22 results were in line with our expectations, and reflected a period of consistent delivery against a backdrop of mounting supply chain and inflationary concerns. With H2 having started well and in line with management expectations, we leave our forecasts unchanged. We believe that the Group's direct delivery model, its position on long-term frameworks, and its exposure to UK infrastructure opex spend, are all factors that should help to business remain resilient in a more uncertain environment. We retain our 900p PT and upgrade to BUY from ADD."
"Valuation: The shares have sold off along with the wider market since December's Prelims, and now trade on a FY23E PE of c.12x and EqFCF yield of c.7%. We do not think these multiples reflect the Group's track record of performance, strong balance sheet, or favourable end market exposure, hence our upgrade to BUY"