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Here's a link to Edison's new note.

They forecast 17.2c EPS this year, rising to 19c for the year about to start. So still a ridiculously low multiple and a huge almost 70% discount to CNIC's peers:

Https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/deleveraged-and-delivering-growth/31641/

News today that the Government is to set up a £1billion fund to distribute grants to households to enable cavity wall and loft insulation and smart heating controls such as advanced thermostats and thermostatic valves - all of which are provided by SUR:

Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11467573/Middle-income-households-15-000-Government-grants-make-homes-energy-efficient.html

Coverage on the respected Techmarketview:

Https://www.techmarketview.com/ukhotviews/archive/2022/11/22/platform-model-delivers-the-profits-at-centralnic

"Platform model delivers the profits at CentralNic

CentralNicCentralNic, the fast-growing acquisitive internet domain name and web services provider, continues to progress with strong revenue and profit growth for the first nine months of the year. CentralNic increased revenue by 88% to $526.7m for the first nine months (Sep-2021 YTD $280.6m). Profitability did even better, with adjusted EBITDA up 101% to $62m (Sept 2021 YTD $30.9m) and operating profit up a whopping 440% to $35.1m (Sept 2021 YTD $6.5m).

Improvements in profitability are underpinned by several years of building an online marketing and presence platform that can scale growth faster than its cost base. Acquisitions have formed a key part of the mix allowing CentralNic to build capability in two main areas. Firstly, ‘online presence’ which includes the basic tools to get an organisation online – so things like web addresses, websites, hosting, email etc., all paid for via annual subscriptions. Secondly, it provides ‘online marketing’ services which both help attract customers to a site and generate revenues paid for via rolling open-ended revenue share contracts.

The business remains hungry for acquisitions with recent purchases including social media and advertising suppliers M.A Aporia, for an initial consideration of $11.2m (read here) and US-based domain name management business Intellectual Property Management Company just a few weeks ago for £7.3m."

New article from NTQ about SABER and geothermal energy:

Https://www.enteq.com/news-media/2022/11/geothermal-energy-heating-up-the-industry/

"Our Steer-At-Bit Enteq Rotary (SABER) Tool represents a radical evolution in RSS design, capable of reliable HPHT performance and greater uptime thanks to a mechanically simple design and at-the-bit steering.

We believe that the SABER Tool can play a key role for the geothermal sector for three main reasons:

The greater uptime and reliability improve project economics – critical in geothermal where capex is higher, and rewards are less immediately lucrative.
Drilling deeper brings harder rock. The inherent design of the SABER Tool decouples the internal platform and electronics from strong torsional vibration effects induced by the bit for improved reliability.
The SABER Tool has been designed from the start to be reliable in the HPHT environments typical of geothermal applications, with a specified max temperature of 175°C.

President Joe Biden has recently signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act which, despite the name, could prove an incredibly significant piece of energy legislation, with as much as $350 billion in loans and loan guarantees for energy and automotive companies – with the help of engineering developments such as the SABER Tool, a slice of that could transform the geothermal energy landscape and put the sector back on track to fulfil its potential contribution to Net Zero."

This follows an earlier article about removing methane using SABER:

Https://www.enteq.com/news-media/2022/10/methane-abatement-mining/

"SABER is currently aimed at use for its more obvious applications in the oil and gas industry, but it has also performed initial testing for its use for methane abatement.

SABER offers:

A cost-effective solution for methane abatement before mining
Greater reliability through simple and enhanced design
Improved safety for people, planet and the environment

Methane abatement in the mining sector is becoming more and more important. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) launched its Coalbed Methane Outreach Program (CMOP) which aims to reduce methane emissions from coal mining activities, and the Global Methane Initiative, of which Enteq is a member, also places strategic importance on reductions of methane emissions in mining too.

As a global industry, mining still has a role to play in many energy ecosystems around the world. It’s key that we make this industry as environmentally sound as we possibly can and to do that, we need to have open and honest discussions about making meaningful impacts."

Zeus Capital have reiterated their 150p DCF valuation today, and "see no issues with the overall cash position of the Group".

In summary:

"Surface Transforms has announced a £100m contract with OEM 10, a major global
automaker. The Group will be the sole supplier for two model variants, and discs will replace those of a key competitor on an earlier model variant, providing validation of Surface’s superior technology. Revenue from this contract will flow in 2025e. In contrast, current trading has been hit by production delays at OEM 8. Production is now restored but Surface has struggled to provide enough discs in a shortened period. These issues are now being resolved, nonetheless revenue and profit will be lower this year. There are no fundamental issues with Surface’s products as demonstrated by the award from OEM 10. Our estimates for 2022e are reduced in-line with new guidance. 2023e-24e forecasts include some minor changes - to finance charges, phasing of capex and tax credits.

That said, we now add-in £10m of early-stage revenues from OEM 10 in 2025e; a c.30% upgrade to net profit. Progress with OEM contracts is clearly positive with the secured pipeline now at £290m."

Thumbs up for FNX from Paul Scott on Stockopedia yesterday:

"Fonix Mobile (LON:FNX) [quick comment] – a rare thing this one – a fairly recent float (Oct 2020) that hasn’t collapsed in price! Yesterday’s AGM trading update said it has started FY 6/2023 positively, in line with expectations. It’s planning growth from new products, and internationally, and mentions a “growing pipeline of client prospects”, and is “confident in the growth potential”. This looks an impressive company, and has very sticky clients. Paying decent divis too. Thumbs up from me. [no section below]."

The new Investor Meet investor call is well worth listening to.

A few brief highlights:

- hyperscalers (Google etc) are up to 23% of revenues
- CLX's global 5G infrastructure market is growing much more strongly than the overall telecommuncations market
- hyperscale data centre operators will grow their cap.ex at 10% per annum over the next 5 years
- CLX are continuing to look at acquisitions. They've even hired an ex-Spirent man to hone their processes....
- there will be an H2 weighting as usual, probably 45/55 H1/H2
- average product life is 10 years, so CLX's amortisation policy is prudent

Zeus Capital's new note has a DCF valuation of 210p per share.

They now forecast 19.1c EPS this year, rising to 20.4c EPS next year, i.e 15.9p EPS rising to 17p EPS - a P/E of just 6.7.

They've reduced EPS this year purely because of higher tax rates in Germany resulting from the Online Marketing growth there (not a bad problem to have), though CNIC are planning to mitigate this.

But these new forecasts are very conservative:

"We see potential upside to earnings estimates due to conservative forecasts. Our Q4 forecasts ($183m revenue, $21m adjusted EBITDA) are conservatively below Q3 ($192m revenue, $22m adjusted EBITDA) despite continued solid trading and typical Q4 seasonality."

In summary:

"Record revenue and EBITDA

9M 2022 results demonstrate CentralNic’s ability to accelerate organic growth
in an increasingly tough macroeconomic environment. The Online marketing division doubled revenue organically in the LTM to September and accelerated group organic growth to 66% from 62% in the LTM to June 2022. We believe CentralNic is well positioned to strongly grow earnings through organic growth, operating leverage and acquisitions: Its unique cookie-less marketing platforms are taking market share, the company’s scalable business model is converting high growth to strong margin expansion and its recently negotiated debt facility and strong cash conversion support further earnings accretive acquisitions."

"Value for growth: CentralNic trades at only 5.4x 2022 EBITDA and 8.1x PE, at the bottom of its peer group range, despite having a FY22 FCFF yield of 16.3% and delivering strong growth, earnings outperformance and accretive acquisitions."

I gather that Peel Hunt's revenue forecast was $134m, so this will be well beaten by the now minimum of $138m.

And the 17% cash EBITDA margin compares to Peel Hunt's forecast 14.3%, so PBT will benefit from revenues and margins both well ahead of expectations.

Finally, ACSO have overnight won an award at the annual IAAPA conference for their "amazing" exhibit booth :o))

Https://blooloop.com/technology/news/accesso-image-award-22/

by Mark Watson-Williams:

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-sys-zinc-nic-and-more/

"CentralNic Group (LON:CNIC) – A DCF of 210p Against Current 123.5p

The third quarter results to end September showed record revenues and EBITDA figures and slightly better than expected.

Did you know that this £354m group has upgraded revenue expectations six times since the beginning of last year.

What is more it has also upgraded EBITDA expectations four times in the same period of time.

Broker Zeus Capital states that:

“We believe CentralNic is well positioned to strongly grow earnings through organic growth, operating leverage and acquisitions. Its unique cookie-less marketing platforms are taking market share, the company’s scalable business model is converting high growth to strong margin expansion and its recently negotiated debt facility and strong cash conversion support further earnings accretive acquisitions.”

The broker considers that the group’s DCF valuation is 210p, well above the current share price of 123.5p.

You must know by now just how much I like this company and its potential – so I will not repeat myself, apart from saying that at just 8 times earnings its shares are massively undervalued for such a money machine."

Tipped overnight by Mark Watson-Williams :

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-sys-zinc-nic-and-more/?mc_cid=45562b1e4f&mc_eid=db9f9bbaf2

"SysGroup (LON:SYS) – Massive Cross-Selling Potential

On Monday morning this provider of IT services, cyber security and cloud hosting declared its interims to end September.

They showed revenues up 49% at £11.32m, adjusted pre-tax profits of £1.10m (£0.96m), with earnings coming out at 2.0p (1.5p) at the halfway stage.

Due to recent acquisitions the £15m group’s first-half annual recurring revenue rate slipped from 86% to 75% on its Managed IT Services side, but that will return to growth.

The group’s Outlook comment noted that there is further potential for client growth and cross-selling.

It also stated that it is assessing various acquisition opportunities, to help it to further its ambition as a consolidator in its highly fragmented market.

Confidence remains that current year trading will be in line with market expectations.

Analysts Bob Liao and Carl Smith at Zeus Capital, the group’s NOMAD and Broker, estimate that the year to end March will se revenues rise from £14.7m to £20.5m, while adjusted pre-tax profits will increase from £2.0m to £2.4m, lifting earnings to 3.7p (3.4p) per share.

The brokers note that 68% of its customers take only one or two of the group’s five core managed services – meaning that there is considerable scope for cross-selling.

Zeus Capital has a 58p per share valuation on SysGroup shares.

On the basis of such estimates, this group’s shares are really quite appealing, trading at just 30p which puts them out on only 8.1 times current year earnings – that is too low for such growth potential."

Finncap today retain their 120p target price and summarise as follows:

"Trading update and OEM 10 contract win worth £100m

The group has announced the award of possibly its most significant contract to date worth £100m over six years for OEM 10, which takes its total contract value to £290m, and is an important validation by a leading automotive OEM that supplants its rival ceramic disc competitor. Its trading update highlights a recent short halt in production for OEM 8, with production now resumed and ramping up, reducing forecast FY22 revenues by £6.5m, with profits reduced by £3.6m. FY23 and FY24 forecasts are unchanged. This disappointing delay should be regarded as a short-term issue, with the contract win highlighting the large-scale opportunity becoming increasingly apparent.

We retain our 120p target price, which offers substantial upside from current levels. Our enthusiasm is reinforced by the contract win and is unaffected by the short delay."

Yep, great to see a non-exec buying $50,000 of CAPD shares relatively close to the year end. Which hopefully bodes well.

Announcing first thing today would have been preferable impact-wise as most wouldn't have even registered it coming so late last night.

The new £100m contract win is definitely a wow moment - which lifts order books to a whopping £290m.

Whereas the delays in today's RNS are for a short time and hardly unexpected in the current climate. In fact, guidance for 2023 is not being changed at all and SCE will still be profitable for the first time this month and in December.

It's notable that SCE have again displaced the products of its "major competitor"....

Worth noting that the iTrinergy acquisition, which cost a net £2.26m, delivered £0.4m PBT in just 5.5 months. That's almost an annualised £0.9m. A pretty impressive return in the first period post-acquisition.

New note out from Allenby - they have 90p fair value, with 4.1c EPS rising to 4.44c EPS next year and a $6.4m cash pile at the end of 2022, rising to $8.1m:

Https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/11/20221121-MTI-Wireless-Edge-Ltd-MWE.L-Allenby-Capital-Q3-Update.pdf?c3333=on

Summary:

"All divisions remain well placed for FY23 and beyond

Good Q3 update from MTI Wireless Edge Ltd (MWE.L), the technology group focused on
comprehensive communication and radio frequency solutions across multiple sectors.
Each division (MTI Summit, Antenna and Mottech) demonstrated revenue growth and
remained profitable. Overall, 9m revenue +8% to $34.8m and EBITDA +14% to $4.6m.
Net cash remains a healthy $5.2m, despite payment of the final dividend, the PSK
acquisition and Russian exit.

Q4 has started well with two contract wins already announced for the Antenna division in India and Israel worth $1.2m in total. India represents a major opportunity for MTI’s 5G backhaul solution given the number of Eband towers that will be required. The PSK acquisition is bedding in well and it secured the group’s largest ever contract in July with the Israeli Ministry of Defence. All three divisions remain well placed. No change to P&L forecasts or 90p/share fair value."

Woo hoo :o))

Not only ahead of expectations, but also note that cash EBITDA margins are higher - that cash pile will be even bigger now, allowing for bigger buybacks and/or acquisitions.

The only problem is that there aren't any broker notes available publically (or on Research Tree), so I don't know just how far ahead of expectations they are - other than materially as otherwise they wouldn't have had to RNS it.

StrollingMolby elsewhere believes ACSO are now on a P/E of 13. If correct, on what is now almost a historic P/E of 13 - and with say 20% of the m/cap in cash - ACSO looks terrific value even after the rise today.

Shore Capital issued an update on SUR following last week's Budget as follows:

"Sureserve Group + (SUR, House Stock, 72p)

Hunt s £6bn pledge extends energy efficiency push

Jeremy Hunt yesterday pledged in his Autumn Statement another £6bn to improve energy efficiency in homes and industry from 2025. This is on top of the £6.6bn current ongoing programme. The details are still to be set out, but we see this as a potential major positive for the social housing energy services group s long-term pipeline. Valuation: FY23 PER 7.7x. House stock.

• The combined impact of the two programmes are aimed at reducing energy consumption by 15% by 2030 and improving energy security. Full details are expected soon.

• It is not clear whether there will be any changes to the current programme, such as grants to homes, but it extends the commitment.

• We see the group benefiting from protected long-term contracts in protected sectors of gas safety compliance and energy efficiency that is not reflected in the valuation: FY23F (Sep YE) 7.7x, PER; 4.6x EV/EBITDA."

Berenberg have again reiterated their Buy and 250p target today:

Https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Centralnic_Group/broker-views

At some point the supply of shares (possibly from the 120p placing?) will dry up. Hopefully the re-rating will be one of those sharp ones which see a sudden 30%-40% in just a week or two.

Encouraging read-across for RNWH from Severfield's interims this morning as regards the increased budgets for rail electrification, roads, power networks etc:

"As a key component of economic growth, the construction industry will be central to a sustainable economic recovery. New, low carbon infrastructure (including HS2, wind power, new nuclear, rail electrification, energy efficient buildings) will play a leading role in stimulating sustainable growth. The UK government's National Infrastructure Strategy ('NIS') sets out its plans to transform infrastructure to drive economic recovery, levelling up and meeting the UK's net zero emissions target by 2050. The funding of £650 billion for developments in roads, railways, power networks and other UK infrastructure projects, represents an increase of around £100 billion from the previous plan. Included within the NIS are increased budgets for some of the Group's key customers such as Network Rail, including a significant amount of rail electrification work and Highways England, including the second Road Investment Strategy."