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The Poddar's are running the company like a privately owned one. Related party transactions doesn't bode well for any public listed company especially when numbers are big.

23. Related Party Transactions

PranaGraf Materials and Technologies Private Limited (Formerly known as Tirupati Speciality Graphite Private Limited) is an entity incorporated in India. The Company is connected to TSG in that both Shishir Poddar and Hemant Poddar were directors and shareholders of TSG during the year. At year end, a net amount £333,253 (2022 - £1,567,693) was receivable towards sale of goods with none overdue. Revenue earned during the year amounted to £895,808 (2022 - £287,247), the Company purchased capital goods and consumables of £1,764,805 (2022: £1,484,087), and incurred service fees of £290,287 (2022: £235,795) towards back office services received. Reimbursement of expenses of £204,220 (2022: £143,334 ) towards travel and other expenses for the executives of the Company was made during the year.

Haritmay Ventures LLP (HV) is an entity incorporated in India and engaged in manufacturing proprietary tailor-made flake graphite processing machinery and equipment which the Company uses in its projects. The Company is connected to HV in that Shishir Poddar is partner and shareholder of HV during the year. At year end, a net amount of £287,039 (2022: £230,624) was receivable being advance paid for long lead machinery purchase and the Company purchased proprietary graphite processing machinery and spares of £861,368 (2022: £1,132,398) during the year.

Production guidance was in between 6100 - 6500 tons for Q1 24 was reiterated in April. But the actual number are way below the guidance 2371 tons. Low in cash.

Need money to commence work for the newly acquired Mozambique resources.

In what sense was this a good RNS?

This is the new carrot the company tried but investors don’t believe anything until they see. The company got to blame themselves for that and SP trading below IPO price.

At first they deceived investors with TSG merger and recently they deceived investors with production guidance twice. The company needs to build trust and that is not going to happen overnight.

Good interview but this would not help in the current market where investors need more certainty to invest. The company just need to publish the sales and revenue news to gain the lost trust. I don’t think this would be possible until next year but meanwhile they could atleast update market with downstream plans or TSG acquisition and funding and future expansion plans.

IMHO - the company has reached a milestone by completing 30ktpa in Madagascar but the main reason for SP not taking off is lack of clarity on funding details for developing newly acquired Sunni resources and Madagascar expansion. the company needs to release the details of capex and opex required for next couple of years. I don’t think sp would take off until the uncertainty is cleared.

Great analysis Myles, but if would have included some important financial information from balance sheet in your report then it would have been more appropriate to compare these companies. When you compare revenue, profit/loss, outstanding debt and cash in bank, then you would realise why TGR Mcap is low. Anyways in 6 to 9 months of time the balance sheet would strengthen and it lift sp up.

Great

Shishir did mention positive bottom line on many occasions but I doubt very much because of all the delay and weather problems the company had.
Not the results the most are expecting including the BOD themselves.

IMHO - for 22/23 the production would be around 5 to 6k tons. Based on this it would be hard to break even and it could be negative EBITDA. The company would announce results as late as possible and could be in September.

IMHO - the full year results for 2023 would be below the expectations, the market knows it already because of all the delays in expanding the capacity. The next 12 months would be very interesting and below events can move the SP quickly into all time high and above.
Now they have established the capacity, focus and deliver on production guidance.
Complete the Sunni Acquisition.
details of further capacity expansion in Madagascar and its funding details.
Roadmap and timeline for developing Mozambique assets(post acquisition)
GLAH

Yes the current production capacity would make the company cash flow positive from Next FY year onwards and this is arguably the biggest achievement till date. But the biggest questions still remains to be answered is debt financing arrangements for future expansion like what you said:
Next 18,000 tpa module in Madagascar
Expansion on Mozambique (hope deal gets closed soon)
Setup of downstream operations or acquisition of TSG.

I don’t think we can leverage enough from current profits to fund everything. So for aggressive expansion we need to raise more capital or it would be very slow growth unlike what investors expected. So is the state of current SP

IMHO - investors are more cautious and not going to invest until they see the revenue and profits. We may not see this until September when FY results would be out. Shishir was bold on few occasions that the company is going to be bottom line positive this financial year which I very much after all the delay.
Secondly, there is no detail plan for future expansion and funding details. It is easy to say leveraging the existing profits but In current climate securing credit is going to be tough and expensive. Investors need a clear plan.
A company with great outlook and potential but very poorly managed by its very own CEO

Great RNS but Luke warm response, I hope SP picks up when market wakes up and we go over IPO price this week.

Who’s do you this seller that is driving this down? Why would they do this below IPO price and lower than the most recent placing?
I can’t get much info from company’s website. Do you know who the major shareholders are?

Good post BBN.
I think the problem is not with TGR. The investors are cautious and not ready to invest until they see the profits and growth.
Don’t be surprised to see SP dip further if TGR miss any targets. I hope they don’t.

We are supposed to reach 30k production by now, but we are running bit behind as per the last update.
IMHO - until the next big update which is the H2 production numbers the sp would not move much. The sp very much depends on those numbers and it is really important for company to meet it guidance to break even and post some profits this year. So I’m holding at the moment and waiting for the update before adding further.

Shishir was very vocal about the targets in all his interviews. 84,000 tpa by end of 2024, 400,000 tpa by 2030. All said is great but the investors need more evidence. We need news about the 30,000 tpa first until then the sp would not move much. I hope Shishir gets this message out soon.

Great post GG, I always wonder why would company delay production updates when they literally can publish that anytime after the period. This the only way to give confidence to investors and improve SP.
IMHO- it would be way below the guidance and won’t be reported anytime soon. But I’m happy to be proven wrong.

Last time the final results were released in September. The company never released a quarterly trading update or production update in the past. So I think you may have to wait till September to find it out.

I feel the same, the investors were misled. It is just a mere mining company. I raised this previously and say it again Poddars are going to shaft all investors big time with new valuation report.
IMHO - the share price would be suppressed until the TSG transaction is completed.