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What do you mean simple PE?? The ratio at a price of 150p would be over 100 on your calcs which is far too high. Growth Co PE of 30 would be more realistic giving a SP of 40 ish plus spin offs - I can see value here of 60p plus
When CF states ‘the seller is out’ he really means that the seller is almost out (part of his blarney ) so hopefully there isn’t much for the seller still to dump. September will be positive so there is no reason to panic (CF does remind me of an Irish version of Andrea Cattaneo at Zenith Energy which is a slight concern ??)
There won’t be many sellers (as we are locked in) so you could see a rise. If the price went to say 50p we could protect our gains by putting a short on (if shorting such a share was possible!!)
How many shares are there in Poolbeg (about 500 million comes to mind) that gives a very large price per share if CF is right. A successful Poolbeg float will do wonders for Orph shares as investors get on board for the next spin off
All is clear - there are 3 spin offs to go plus reporting of a significantly better (profitable) trading performance and Directors are buying
Wish I sold at 45p (yes) to buy back more at a lower price - this share will be higher over the coming months (even if it’s just the value of spin offs)
Yes ceejay - good news but not the kind of news that will put us in a ‘totally different place in a few weeks’
Compare Orph to a lot of other shares and the positive news flow over the last 12 months has been phenomenal, however, it has created an ever growing thirst for the next news fix. When there is a quiet period doom and gloom appears and the share falls away. Many shares that don’t issue regular news just stay unchanged. (CF could have managed expectations better though)
Many thanks MM - it seems that although the mine is fully funded the Company still needs to raise funds for ongoing Corporate expenses - I think some kind of plan needs to be announced re funding and timelines
I am in the process of researching BMV to take a large (ish) position. It all looks very encouraging (their website is crxp) and I have some areas that its not easy to get details on
- Is the operation fully funded to commencement of mining - debt or equity? (any links to this)
- Production is due to start within 12 months i believe - does anybody have a production profile - year 1 / year 2 and extraction costs etc
Any help would be great
Nearly 3 weeks since CF said some big news is only days away - does anybody else get the feeling Something is Going On? Let’s hope it’s big and positive
Just listened to last weeks Video interview and find it baffling that shareholders are selling!!!
Why wouldn't they wait (at least a week or 2) to see if CF comes good on his statement that there is news to be announced that will make shareholders happy???? Quite Bizarre
Jax - I think they are looking to exceed expectations, also, there are enough cumulative losses to nullify any tax charges
Disappointing results - couple of obvious thingsH1 Revenue £7m costs £12m - loss £5mH2 Revenue £15m costs £20m - loss £5mYear end cash £19m and at 31st May this year £15m - how is this possible if we are profitable and cash generative every month
Maybe there will be news on the next spin off as CF can’t buy if such news is pending
Why would you sell a Company that is emerging from its first year (profitable in Q4) and likely to be much more profitable this year with the spin off bonuses???? - you need to look forward not backwards
Annual revenues of £38m - how much fell into H2 2020 - probably not that much
Agree Blah and this year could easily see £10 - £15m and with a growth PE multiple of 30 + that would justify a price of 55p plus. In addition we have the windfalls from spin offs and we are starting to move towards the £1+ target which is in keeping with $Billion valuation
No chance - it will be nearer half that
Cathal will be holding back as much as possible into this financial year
I hold a large (ish) amount of Orph and have been looking at the results to be published this week. As a reminder H1 results were Revenue £7m less Costs of £12m giving a loss of £5m - my thoughts for H2 are
Revenue £12m less Costs of £10.5m giving a profit of £1.5m
Just wondered if any other posters had estimations??
I just hope that all the talk of spin off's etc aren't being used to mask a poorer than expected out turn for H2