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ANKARA
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised up its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2020 by $1 per barrel, according to its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report for May released on Tuesday.
The international benchmark is now expected to average $34 per barrel this year, up from its previous estimate of $33 a barrel.
While Brent crude is forecast to average $23 per barrel during the second quarter of 2020, it is anticipated to average $32 per barrel during the second half of the year.
The EIA said it forecasts Brent crude increasing to an average of $48 per barrel in 2021, as "declining global oil inventories next year will put upward pressure on oil prices."
In April's STEO, the administration lowered the forecast for Brent crude for this year by $10 per barrel from the previous month's estimate.
"EIA forecasts significant decreases in US liquid fuels demand during the first half of 2020 as a result of COVID-19 travel restrictions and disruptions to business and
economic activity," STEO for May noted.
"EIA expects the largest impacts will occur in the second quarter of 2020 before gradually dissipating over the next 18 months," it added.
-US crude output revised down
The EIA also revised down US crude oil production for this year by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to the STEO for May.
Crude oil production in the country is now estimated to average 11.7 million bpd in 2020, compared to the previous expectation of 11.8 million bpd in the STEO for April.
Voluntary production cuts by OPEC members show that oil producing countries are doing what they can to stabilize the market during the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, one strategist told CNBC this week.
Saudi Arabia on Monday said it will reduce output by an additional 1 million barrels per day from June 1, in a bid to support oil prices. Following the kingdom's announcement, the UAE and Kuwait also announced supply cuts. That's on top of an agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC allies, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, to lower production by 9.7 million bpd from May 1.
"The OPEC heavyweights are sort of lining up to try to do what they can to stabilize this market," said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
"We're already starting to see a pick up in demand as global lockdown conditions ease, people start driving again," she told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Tuesday. "So, essentially what they're doing is acting as an accelerator in terms of getting the market rebalanced."
The tenge has lost 9.1% of its value against the dollar this year, but its real effective exchange rate against a basket of currencies of Kazakhstan's main trading partners was flat year to date in March, according to central bank data.
May 13 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan could boost the competitiveness of its non-oil sector in a time of low energy prices as a change in relative prices supports diversification, a European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) economist said.
The EBRD drastically slashed its economic outlook for the 37 countries in its region on Wednesday as a result of a sharp hit to tourism, remittances and commodity prices from fallout from the novel coronavirus.
Oil-rich Kazakhstan, the biggest economy in Central Asia, is set to post a 3.0% gross domestic product contraction this year, the EBRD said, "followed by a 5.5% rebound in 2021, supported by a partial recovery of oil prices".
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/kazakhstan-increases-oil-production-by-6/
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/kazakhstan-begins-easing-some-covid-19-restrictions/
Not everyone who’s bullish is looking to smash this out and exit .
Fantastic news out of Indonesia this evening we should see the benefit from this
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL4N2CU2Q4?__twitter_impression=true
I’d expect an update this week regarding current affairs . Also noticed a few saying no April numbers yet . February’s numbers came March 11 . I’m sure they’ll come this week for people to say the fact they haven’t reported yet means they aren’t selling. That’s just opinions . I’ll wait for an rns to tell me rather than jumping to conclusions . From what they’ve told us in recent rns is production continues to rise
State of emergency now ended
https://www.inform.kz/en/state-of-emergency-ends-in-kazakhstan_a3648134
Oil just popped back higher off the back of that
Breaking news: Saudi Arabia has directed Aramco to cut an extra 1 million bpd to its opec plus cuts which brings the kingdom's targeted production in June to 7.492 million bpd -statement
Also this
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/05/2020-oil-crash-winner-saudi-arabia/
On the other hand of argument and they’ve just slashed discounts
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/05/2020-oil-crash-winner-saudi-arabia/
Some nice trades coming in first think and decent size too . Hopefully we can push into the 4’s today
For some information on the easing of restrictions currently going on .
https://kz.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information/
Certainly looks like we’ve found some investor interest at these levels £45k worth of buys already this am .
FOK only really for last two days , moving up now tho full ask 3.6p wanted
People continue to blame Clive when he has very little in way of running things . Let’s be honest the board aren’t worried about joe public’s shares going up and down over time all they care about is getting the most oil out of the ground , the sp over time will look after itself . It can only ignore any progress for so long . The board have lost a lot more money recently than any of us . Don’t forget kuats in for most of their families shares at 7.41p . They aren’t making any profits out of the company at these levels . We’ve seen the cycles and we’ve seen the negative posters turn positive once they get there buy price. We’ll return to 10p in future for now it’s just a case of sitting , trading the swings or buying more for the long term in my opinion. Brent $31.5 now suggesting perhaps people now pricing in some return to demand . GLA genuine long term holders