Member Info for RichTheNewbie

It's worth noting....

FFWD have given Factom $6m.

Ignoring their option to invest more...they can convert that $6m at a 25% discount to the series B fundraising.....

It's worth remembering that a 25% discount on the price means they actually get 33.3% more shares for their money.

Essentially, the moment that money is raised, and FFWD convert, they're 33.3% up instantly, on the current market rate. So the $6m investment is instantly valued at $8m.

On top of that.....they have that warrant to invest $9m more on the same terms.........

So, if a serious investor (or VC firm) wanted to invest in Factom then FFWD then doing it via a deal with FFWD would gain you 33% more shares for up to $19m (FFWD's initial $6m plus the $9m option).

That $19m would be worth $25m at whatever the proposed raising price is.

If someone wanted that big stake, FFWD could cash in for a tidy profit. So if someone gave FFWD $20m in return for their $6m stake and exercising their $9m option they would get $25m worth of Factom (if FFWD exercised all their options and handed over their shares). A $20m investment turning into a $25m one instantly by going via FFWD.

That $20m to FFWD would be over $11m (£8m) in cash ($20m-$9m to exercise) to FFWD.

That would be ($11-$6m) an immediate $5m profit on their $6m investment with option. Or approximately 83.5% profit.

This is just an example of the value of the deal they currently have and all of this without selling their existing 3.4% stake they bought for $400k.

Of course there's loads of other potential things that could happen, and I'd like to see FFWD retain a big chunk of Factom as it looks extremely promising, but a "cash-in" value is not insignificant!
Even selling the additional option alone could be very profitable.

You can see the effect already.
Price to buy is already back to 12.58p as of the last trade.
People wanting back in are having to pay significantly more each trade as there's no big chunk of shares to let them in cheap anymore it appears.

Doing OK so far.
AIM is having a down day again (whilst the FTSE main indexes are up - always seems to do the opposite of the main indexes lately).
So this is actually one of the few risers outperforming today.

https://investegate.co.uk/fastforward-inn-ltd--ffwd-/rns/holding-s--in-company/201602180821394342P/

If you want people ramping about nothing 200 times per second head over to UKOG ;)

And more proof if it's needed that we all see things differently.....another chart:
https://twitter.com/Li_Ag_Investor/status/1038144369621127168

Only posted because it nicely highlights the way people see things differently in these charts.

Where the previous poster's chart saw weakening RSI, this one by someone else sees it strengthening, and both come to different conclusions, despite both primarily focusing on the exact same area of the chart, since the start of this year.

Of course I could be wrong ;)

I think people too rigidly obsess over charts. Especially on AIM.

They're extremely loose guides and prone to over/undershoots. The more you step back the better imo.

People following them rigidly are liable to be easily manipulated because a small amount of trading can often push an AIM stock up or down. Meaning they often serve as little more than a reason to offload on a baseless "technical" spike or on a baseless drop catch some stop losses whilst people buy them up in the background.

I don't believe closer examination shows the long term uptrend is broken. In fact I believe it's following it perfectly.

On your chart the bottom bars continually break through it because you've placed the bottom of the uptrend in the wrong place imo. Hence it's gone below it multiple times in the past.

I don't really go in for RSI/MACD indicators and believe (like a huge number of "technical" indicators) they're of little real use and more just used by people to sound fancy than anything else. On the example you post the RSI is weakening....that sounds bad.....but another way of putting it is it's become oversold and a buying opportunity.

MACD is even less useful imo and people who've tried to backtest it have showed this - http://etfhq.com/blog/2013/02/26/macd-test-results/#Conc

I'd certainly say that any hints a "chart" or "technical analysis" gives pales in comparison to the importances of the fundamentals. The bigger the stock, the more liquid the stock (or commodity), the better technical analysis might be.....but it's still just giving hints about patterns in a game. A game where people know a chunk of the market participants act on those patterns. A game where people can help to create those patterns with their trading. A game where unknown future events affect those patterns. A game where past events may not yet be known by all and those patterns be affecting different participants in different ways. And so on and so forth ;)

I once heard Alessio Rastani (of Goldman Sachs rules the world BBC infamy) talking about charts and used the common phrase "less is more" when it comes to charts and said it's actually quite useful. That was weird to me initially but it's quite a neat way of dealing with the "noise" on charts and (in a very over-simplified description here) a way of focusing less on the short term peaks and troughs (and potentially manipulation) and focusing on the more important longer term trends. So viewing less data, perhaps a weekly view on a chart, might actually be more useful sometimes than an hourly or daily, in many circumstances.

Ok that post turned into a lot more waffle than intended. Probably the result of a week off with limited computer access ;)

Better chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/NFqlfQSA/

Right, time for a coffee, and mentally preparing myself for the arrival of builders. Just what you don't want on a Saturday morning.

And just in case you think I'm having a go at you. If you really are genuine..... I'm not.

HOWEVER, it's a fairly common tactic on these AIM shares, for people to try to turn conversations into the most negative possible scenario(s), in order to panic novice/unwitting investors, into focussing on fantasy worst case scenarios, especially when at the share price lows, so that they can buy in cheaper, whilst getting others to sell out.

If you're not trying to do that, you're quite likely accidentally doing it, or someone has got you to do it for them (maybe without you even knowing)!

Instead of focussing on the fact FFWD has a pot of cash, recently raised, to invest in new exciting things or raising their stakes in their most promising investments, which they have warrants (or equivalents) to exercise by the end of this month. Plus right now, probably thanks to the market wobbles, people can get in under the recent placing price, which the BoD didn't have to do, but probably did to take advantage of an opportunity very soon.

It could be a very exciting month here! So a bit of positivity would be a good idea rather than focussing on disaster scenarios that probably only really exist in your head! ;)

Ignoring the fact your evidence isn't evidence.....otherwise I can say I hold £5m worth of shares here and call that evidence too (whilst it's not true).

If you're not scaremongering then I think you're stark raving mad, or very silly, to have been putting money into AIM companies, and THEN asking questions like the ones you are!

Perhaps rather than scaremongering you've fallen victim to scaremongering and are now worried about nothing.

If you want to know WHY they'd use a Guernsey company then basically read this:
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=0a676e40-2eba-44b3-b08d-b35284e1e44b

The question you're asking is not much better than asking "what happens if the CEO and finance director of Apple transfer all the cash to a Swiss bank account and run off to a non-extradition country".
Well yeah shareholders of Apple might be quite annoyed if they did that but I think people might call you a bit of a plonker if you went onto the Apple share chat board if you started posting that.

Sounds a lot like you're scaremongering to me...

Go away a week and everyone gets the wobbles about nothing.

If people hadn't noticed the entire markets had a rubbish week and a large number of companies are down.

So there's been a seller.....who cares......nothing has changed with regards the company. This happens on most companies and especially at the time of market wobbles.

The value of this company has been trading upwards, ignoring short term spikes: https://www.tradingview.com/x/NFqlfQSA/

Wassat - yeah I’d say there’s someone offloading a few or this would have moved up already. Also decent large buying mopping up this selling.
Selling always worries people but there’s appetite for the stock down here which is good and once this seller finishes you can reasonably expect a nice bounce up once they’re done assuming the buying continues with nothing left to hamper it.
Tick tock ;)

I saw the odd trader type buying in, just after this was turning, and targeting just a small percentage.
I think 13.5p was all they wanted.
Nothing wrong with that but they're kinda irrelevant. Actually useful in this instance.
The good thing was it bounced off support, and now you're seeing larger buys mopping up the few trader profit-takes, like the 75,000 just gone through on top of the 50,000 earlier, two largest trades of the day both on the buy side, as it's technically looking better and following the long-term upward trend channel nicely.

Yes I had read that.

And should have said "for a year or so" (there used to be stuff - website updates, social media, staff talk, but all ground to a halt - hence skeptical)..

Probably shouldn't have said dunno as I explained why immediately after. Lack of sleep I'm blaming on this occasion.

Dunno - just skeptical of lack of public facing information if alls going so well. It matters little tho....if all is going great and turns a profit then it's just a bonus for me. Factom/Intensity are the most interesting imo.