Member Info for RichTheNewbie

What I’ve been trying to get my head round is the production level post crown pillar.
If they do 68-76koz with this 22.5koz crown pillar at 8.4g/t…is it going to drop back to 50-60k/oz in the following year as the grades continue to decline and no “bonus zone” to prop up the numbers?

Pretty surprised how well this has held up on both the update and the gold price.
Then again I'm not counting any chickens, as my experience of the markets in the past couple of years has been that what I expected to happen often does, but often later than I expected, to my cost.

Be interesting to see the market reaction to this RNS…as they’ve gone for the approach of burying the bad news of a paltry 11k oz of production for the quarter with repeating tons of positive things everyone already knew and had previously been reported.

Pretty miraculous this hasn’t revisited recent lows bearing in mind gold breaking down lower today and under 1900. If this had landed after a gold price related fall it wouldn’t have been pretty. Reminds me of that old political phrase of a “good day to bury bad news”.

This company's ability to disappoint is unmatched!
$2,235 AISC...ouch.
Every time you think they might finally surprise to the upside they instead do it to the downside.
Their maintained guidance for AISC of US$1,300 - US$1,450 for the year looks pretty laughable...reckon that'll last a quarter or two at best before being revised sharply upwards. They'd have to have AISC averaging under $1200 for the next three quarters for that to happen!

Based on the PPE shambles, it's probably less about finding the ones with genuine growth potential, and more about finding ones that are mates/neighbours with Han**** or Boris ;)

To be fair to Drake the results are a month later than usual if released today.
The calendar on the Shanta website also says April 2022: https://www.shantagold.com/investors/events-calendar/
Isn't clear why yet.

Ignoring the weird obsession with drawers...it's interesting watching many smallcap gold stocks get dragged up with the market today, in stark contrast to the falling gold price (on the usual peace hopes).
Entirely nonsensical but that's the market at the moment!

Of course the gold price being on a pullback too doesn't help matters (currently at 1918 where it has found support a few times in the past - not that that means a great deal).

boobooberbear - unfortunately, as I mentioned last week, it's just the way the market is these days.

If you've got a company with 1 expected/predictable positive piece of news, followed by two expected/predictable negative pieces of news, neither should move the market massively, but what tends to happen in current conditions is you'll get a "yeah we expected that" reaction to mildly positive news - especially when expected, but you'll likely get a small hit from mildly negative news, even though it too is largely expected.

These things are also self-fulfilling, as many people will probably think this (whether II or PI), and therefore the price action before the perceived negative news is out of the way can be more negative than the news itself or health of the company.

In a months time it should all (finally) be water under the bridge.

It's not inflation you've got to worry about it's stagflation.
Raising interest rates isn't going to solve that.
The current rate rises are ludicrous anyway as if raising rates will counter the current causes of inflation (which a five year old could see they won't). It's all just virtue signalling and smoke+mirrors.
Fact is inflation actually helps debt laden governments and reduces that burden in the grand scheme of things.
You're not going to see giant interest rates because nobody can afford it.
What you may see is rampant inflation making everyone poorer, the governments debt more affordable, and stagnating growth, rising unemployment, and reduced spending.

None of this is going to stop kids buying a 10 or 11 quid t-shirt any time soon. Adults however will feel the squeeze much sooner and companies that offer the frivoulously overpriced products/services to the middle class will feel the hurt most. The very rich will stay rich and spending, and the very poor will still have their benefits and many of the vital low end jobs that won't stop, so spending at the bargain end of the market will be hit much later.

Updated MRE on updated mineral resource estimate at Isulu-Bushiangala + re-estimated historical maiden resource at Bumbo (that doesn't sound right :p) should be probably in a week or so's time.
Final results (historic) any time soon.
Q1 results in about a months time.
Is probably a rough overview and ignoring sustainability fluff ;)
(please correct if wrong or I've forgotten something)

MRE should be a positive although perhaps relatively "known", to a degree, based on all the good reported drilling results.
Final results are what they are (as you can do the maths on all previous quarters). Shouldn't move the market really, as most of it will be known too, but who knows these days!
Q1 could be still poor (relatively/historically speaking), or tentatively positive - if production creeping up from towards period end.

The real positive (imo), aside from the MRE looking good, will simply be getting the Q1+final results out of the way, as production results should start becoming meaningfully higher after this, and essentially be the last result of results with poorer performance in (final and Q1).

How the market reacts initially is hard to call - you might think it would dip first then settle into a sustained rise perhaps? However really it'll probably be dominated by a) the gold price b) ii movements in the background.

Whilst endless ramping (or reiterating positives depending on your POV) might be a bit boring. It’s still a lot better than endless posts from people rainbow chasing, trying to get people to sell here, and follow them to whatever pot of gold they think they can see elsewhere.
If you think you can make money faster elsewhere, great, go do it. Just don’t bore this board with it ;)

Pretty confident all this is, is there’s an II clearing in the background, and imagine this will suddenly start rising unhindered at some point. Could be tomorrow, could be the next day, week, whatever.
No point watching the day to day. It’ll happen imo and that’s why I’m in. I certainly think there’s more chance of that than the price going considerably lower. We shall see.

Lucando - precisely, and why I've just added, as this is the RNS I was waiting for.

Dunno what all this waffle is about on here there's a friggin detailed timeline in the recent presentation:
https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20220303-bmo-presentation.pdf

Can't help feeling certain people don't want this to rise and expect to buy in when it's starting production at the same price (it won't be).

Don’t be too unhappy with it. It makes naff all difference really. Trading will probably be no different tomorrow to what it was.
Though I do think the UT should have minimum thresholds on it to prevent silly things like this and be considered a valid closing price.

It won't be. That morningstar data is probably best thought of as a trawl of public info/reports over past 12 months and usually isn't an accurate picture of the current situation (I know having tried to make sense of it on many stocks). You often get old/outdated/duplicate entries and won't be up to the minute.

Funny watching all the numpties trying to make out that BOO hitting the revised guidance is a bad thing. Previously they'd been trying to claim they wouldn't. This is good news during disaster times that it's still generating good money.

I think your latter paragraph has been the order of the day for a few years boo boo (primarily fuelled by QE excess).

Once the QE taps are turned off I think a lot of lazy fund managers will have to earn their corn again, who've been believing their own hype more and more in recent years, doing nothing more than buying a ponzi scheme type bubble at the top end of the markets, with new buyers continually propping up the scheme (via the fed money).

Once investors can't just earn stupid returns from a government-inflated market, they'll have to start finding an edge again and there's a lot of small companies at silly valuations now, because the bubble has yet to really burst.