Member Info for RichTheNewbie

Dunno about done but La Mancha are now in the box seat.

The option is probably as simple as they say:

- Company is screwed unless we (and the other major holders plus friends) stump up most of the cash to get into production, massively diluting everyone to do so, essentially largely wiping out all previous holders.

- They negotiate a sale price with Glencore to cut their losses and offload the entire company.

Either way probably shafts long term holders but option two might at least see people make some money back from here. Probably means option 1 is more likely. With their giant average down they might later try option 2.

Plus…if there’s someone selling, who you can buy most of the shares from, it gives you something of an advantage picking the bottom, as you create the bottom yourself, by picking up the remaining shares of a seller, leaving the share trading with no seller and a buyback ongoing to provide impetus north, on top of anyone else who’ll join in for the bounce. Not quite a no-lose gamble but that kind of situation stacks the odds in your favour…

I saw his Tweet earlier (and replied).

Can see why he flagged this one.

Huge cash pile. Good earnings. Multiple areas of expansion globally. Talk of US listings (probably hype - but if not could double the price overnight based on its numbers).

To be honest the valuation seems bonkers (low).

If there’s no skeleton in the closet then this could be an absolute steal.

The price action can only be one or more large parties dumping. It’s too dramatic to be anything else.

Sometimes those can be the best opportunities…we shall see.

wasarunner: I bought more around the recent raise, at the lows (hooray), because I expected that to be the final hit allowing a rise to build. It’s one of those things you have to consider as annoying but gets priced in by those in the know beforehand and the market shortly after before looking forward.
Since that it’s ended up being a perfect storm of markets soaring for no good reason (imo), commodity fund inflows, and likely the final raise out of the way here (shackles off). However I’d be a liar if I said I thought it was going to rise this quick from the 85p region ;)

Slurms: Nothing wrong with locking in profit (if it is profit). Like you, I tried to lock in a bit of profit (from the additional shares I bought at the lows) also because I was too overweight here, due to buying more at the lows, and the plan was always to trim back to a sensible level when the price was right. As usual, as has repeatedly happened in recent times, I probably sold the first batch too soon, as I have done on many shares, but I need to remind myself that doing that on other shares has saved myself a fortune. I fully shared the cognitive dissonance.
I didn’t bother to post that I’d done it, as I’ve found some people get grumpy about it, as if it’s some kind of slight on the share ;) Which obviously it isn’t and I think this is being run really well so far by the mgmt.

Personally my own sells were based on several things, none of them to do with the company itself, and those being 1) Rise was rather sharp and often you get a pullback on sharp rises 2) planned to reduce stake to 10% of PF, or under, at some point 3) The MCAP was starting to approach all time highs and near potential resistance for charts types 4) I think markets in general are overcooked and prime for a pullback at some point (FTSE nearly at all time highs despite war raging, disposable income smashed, Brexit trade barriers remaining, relations on China souring by the second, interest rates higher than in ages, quantitative tightening not easing, etc!).

After a pretty tough year, on the markets, I think this has now put me back into profit!
Having said that...I've just looked at the FTSE and it's approaching all-time highs again...market is bonkers imo ;)

They’d give it up in a heartbeat (imo) and are just after a decent ROI (imo). Nothing more or less. The million/billion dollar question is what they consider a decent ROI vs what people might be prepared to tempt them with. I’m comfortable it’s well north of here though ;)

Doesn’t really matter much. Most of the time the value of trading on the TSX is a tenth of the amount on the London market. Prices there are going to be more weird because it’s not the main place this is traded.

execution risk (not execution rise)
Pesky phone autocorrect…or autowrong as the case may be.

That target will no doubt have considerable risk discounts built into it.
Typically a lower discount for the nearer term stuff and a higher discount for the further away stuff.
So you’ll have Araguaia discounted for the remaining execution rise and Vermelho more heavily discounted to reflect all that needs to be done to get it into production.
It’s these risks evaporating that pushes the value up here. So recent placing might have meant a few more shares but also starts to reduce the discount you need to place on this for getting into production. Draw down on the finance and same again.

Target prices from all the main players are pretty much always 12 months (and if they don’t specify otherwise it’s basically that).

I'd recommend reading this which is particularly useful on the subject.
https://www.clearygottlieb.com/~/media/organize-archive/cgsh/files/publication-pdfs/know-your-shareholders-the-use-of-cash-settled-equity-derivatives-to-hide-corporate-ownership-interests.pdf

What is particularly interesting (not in the document above) is that Helikon is raising its stake in very short-dated positions.

If you notice the rise between their two most recent notifications, the line that has changed is not the one for positions that expire 19 July 2024, or 03 December 2024, or 01 October 2025.....but instead they're raising their stake in positions that expire 02 March 2023 (little more than 3 months away).

Would be strange for anyone to do this, hiding their identity or not, building a strategic stake under the radar or not, unless they were expecting a material rise in the coming months.

Appears this board doesn’t cope well with emojis and displays question marks instead. So to clarify, that wasn’t a question, obviously :p

What on earth are these institutions doing, buying up the shares of super expert PI’s like contrarian, they clearly must have no clue ;)
The price must be rising because of “games” to “push the price up” rather than an institution buying up large amounts of shares.
??

Reminder not to put in a market order when there’s no stock available? :p

Shouldn’t be long now.
Been Q4 in all recent releases and let’s face it nobody would be planning on working from Xmas onwards (and probably not the last week before it either).
So I imagine the next three weeks are the most likely time for that draw down RNS to land, and a big saving on the power, as just announced the other day, will only make things easier to get it rubber stamped.
Should be a nice early Xmas present ;)

I think we're seeing exactly that TopGun333. As we move up there'll no doubt be the odd profit taker (pun intended?) from the lows, as with any share, but chances are we've seen the lows, following the recent raising forced by the banks, the entire purpose of which was to give more headroom on costs, and essentially not need more money barring extreme scenarios.
So, what was probably weighing on this, and probably known by the better connected ii's, will no longer be weighing on it, and the free float evaporating by the second.

Great news. Simple as that.

Really got all the trolls coming out the woodwork now. Good old longfell, who loves to chime in and call people arrogant, if they can string more than a sentence together. The sort of twerp who goes on about filtering, yet never does, because if they did they’d just be listening to twerps like themselves.

Fish123: :)

Dave: I’m going to claim that one….as read this board exactly a week ago (and you’ll see me arguing with deepjoy (the username that is :p), in several posts, that I thought gold had probably near enough bottomed so was buying more).

No booboo. Don't be so thick.
I was doing people a favour by being transparent...so you'd not worry about some large seller!
That's not the same as ramping saying this will be 20p tomorrow, then saying you should all sell up because this is going down to 5p or something stupid, quite the opposite.
If I wanted you all to worry and sell I'd have not said anything. Should have known better than to try to be kind on this board. Christ.