Member Info for RichTheNewbie

Not just Japan.
The West has just had its big wake up call on natural resources from Russia.
It’s also started to wake a lot more people up to how China has been scooping up resource assets globally whilst the West dawdles.
I expect renewed focus on improving this situation in the future from across the western world…particularly for critical things like battery metals.

First the nonsensical ROCE stuff, now this nonsensical bond stuff, please give it a rest KRSS…this isn’t 2+2=22, it’s nearer 3+badger=guava!

Cleverthoughts: that’s been obvious for ages. The central banks have been exceptionally clueless in recent years. Transitory inflation, hah, did they even believe their own words? If they did they’re incompetent. If they didn’t they’re liars that continually bluff.
However, commodities/miners have already taken the hit over a long period, ignoring the central bank nonsense and, if anything, are already on the gradual rebound, having gone too low.
The mantra is markets always front-run reality. I think this has been maintained in commodities, trading 6-12 months ahead of reality.
In the stock markets I think they’ve consistently been ignoring reality, buying the central banks line which was clearly ludicrous, so could have some turmoil in the short term.

It begins… https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/25/california_electric_vehicles/
Not only are EVs produced by the big car manufacturers rolling off production lines at increasing rates…now you’re seeing legislation coming in to force the use of zero emission vehicles.
Tik tok ;)

In the end Orion and La Mancha are now the kingmakers with their big stakes and convertibles.
With their convertibles being 125% of the placing price. They’re well incentivised not to take any low-ball offer.
So, you could probably boil it down to “someone offers considerably north of 200p (125% of placing price rounded up) or Orion and La Mancha will tell them where to go”.

Ant1986 - of course I agree about the valuation disconnect, so we don't disagree, it's just in circumstances like this, where big money has essentially pulled out of miners globally (before they do a u-turn and pile back in at any moment - as happens with everything at the moment), you can't fight the tide. Bobbing along like this has, is actually, if anything, a sign of strength.
When the tide starts to rise again...so will this no doubt.

Think of it another, simpler, way.
The largest publicly listed Nickel producer is VALE (not counting nornickel for obv reasons).
They were at highs of over 22p in Jun21 and nearly 21p in April this year.
Currently they're at just over 13p.
So, whilst the price here is frustrating, and in many fundamental ways nonsensical, you can't fight the market, and miners have been hammered.
The fall is essentially no worse than even a giant of the industry (in fact you could argue it's held up pretty well - and just waiting for market conditions to turn).

It's easy to blame the CEO for everything (and is 99% of the reason why that happens) but the fact is it doesn't matter who the CEO is. The market would have almost certainly reacted exactly the same way to the recent news (an overreaction for sure - and then probably a slower build back upwards).

As well as the statute of limitations aspect also potentially helping to limit things too (seems complicated this aspect with potential exceptions but does seem like it could limit things generally).

Yeah.
The level of journalism is not great and very sensationalist to get readers.
The more I read around it the more I think the hype (and fall in share price) is wildly overblown.
Once you knock it down to the specific types of cancer with a better chance of proving any causal link, actually demonstrating that link (if even possible), and proving someone took it over a meaningful period of time, etc. I think you could find the number of successful claims (or payoffs) is far more limited than the hyperbolic high numbers plucked from the air based on things from the past with far more obvious causal links.

If it helps, it doesn’t say anything interesting…you could summarise the article in one line as “drug companies MIGHT have to pay lots”. Or obviously they might not if the lack of evidence to support these claims stands firm. Breakingnews…rather very old news rehashed.

wasa: yeah I wasn’t suggesting a takeover at anything like these prices. I consider lowball still 10p+ and for the reasons you say, I’d say that’s a non starter below that, I’d just never rule out an opportunist trying it on - offering the major holders a guaranteed quick win.

It’s pretty simple.
Right up until the ex div date you get the dividend.
The moment it starts trading ex div (without div) you don’t get it obviously.
The record date is probably confusing you as stocks settle on a T+2 basis So delay everything two days. And therefore when they check the records the day after the ex div date they’re effectively checking 2 day old records.
So you can ignore it as the ex div date is the shorthand for that so you know when you get it and when you don’t.

You could argue the timing here has been perfect with financing agreed pre rate rises and financing squeeze. With costs rising and commodity supplies dwindling. There will undoubtedly be some, but relatively limited, cost rises. With big chunks of the project already agreed in various big lump deals.
So much of it they’ll probably ride out whilst not yet in production and then come into production as costs are likely falling.
What’s the unknown is the share price in the intervening period.
Frankly it’s so low already that it makes a takeover attempt increasingly likely for a world class/scale nickel resource about to be in production within a year and a half.
For me this means it’s a hold whatever the price, and any meaningful dip makes it tempting to go further overweight, but which I’m trying hard not to do despite the obvious value, purely for prudence’ sake.

Over £47million in the uncrossing trade tonight at…1415.4p
So whilst people sold their chips down low the big boys hoover it up and paying more than the daytime trading prices to get it in size.

What a load of nonsense from someone who seems to be trolling the messageboard of a whole raft of shares.
Clearly actually read nothing about the Zantac issue at all too as it’s not even about the active ingredient in “this drug” and rather an impurity that’s found in loads of other things too! Saying UK shared are f*cked is just plain silly to put the cherry on the cake.

What’s nice is you can step back and forth in 5 day increments and you’re able to see activity if you compare closely.

Resolution isn’t good sadly but https://sentinelshare.page.link/rdM5 should give you a view of the site from 3 days ago.

Was this: https://www.bnamericas.com/en/company-profile/araguaia-niquel-mineracao-ltda-araguaia-niquel-mineracao

But I think the Google location was for araguaia mineracao ltda (no niquel). Hence the confusion.

No need to be sarky tafour. I was trying to help you out and googled an HZM subsidiary. Which went to the location of that mine. When I did more digging it turned out to be wrong - so said ignore it and provided you a link to a recent video showing the works but apparently giving up to date imagery that you asked for wasn’t helpful either. Dunno why I bothered!