Member Info for RichKen

We start today with the news that the US has reached a new record for the number of new cases in one day - 52,982. That's according to Johns Hopkins University in the US, the institution that has been widely relied on to track global virus data.

It says the total US cases now reach 2,682,270. There have been 128,028 deaths, that's more than twice the number of deaths recorded in Brazil, which comes second.

Infections are not slowing down in the US - earlier this week, the top US health official Dr Anthony Fauci warned the country could soon see 100,000 cases a day.

The continuing outbreak is causing some states to roll back their plans to reopen after lockdowns, despite the severe economic damage.

Even Trump has said he would wear a mask!

Meanwhile in India 200,000 new cases in 12 days.

Anyone thinking Covid19 is going away is very wrong.

Cheers Rich

Biglil-notaclue, I have direct business links with Carclo and the UK production plant. But of course an NDA is in place. But, I don’t think you are warm even with your thought. Sorry. I obviously will not be posting on the CAR chat board!
Cheers Rich

RorkesDrift, I am dealing in businesses at Board level and they will no spend that kind of money. In production plant that is more than an hours pay extra per employee per day. Testing once a week is pointless. It is too late.
The perfect number for volume sales is around £2.5 in a work place. In hospitals, hotels, airports etc then you can charge more. In the end initially the price will be higher but as time goes on an production capacity increases then the price has to fall.
It is plain economics.
Cheers Rich

Yes, I can! It is imminent :-)

As I said in my follow up last night, It will come when the next development is ready and only Alastair Smith and Avacta Investor Relations know if it is ready to be released!

Considering today we had no news it was a positive day. So the MM's opened us at the low level and the share price rose to a number some would expect and then it fell back to another expected number. I am sure those following SP patterns would be well aware of that. But for anyone trading in such a tight window with a MM's widespread would have to be very good with timing and trust it didn't go NT.

The big question is what will we see next and when the RNS does appear how big will the spike be 15 to 25% and this time will the market warm up to the news and then will we see strong volume and fast SP recovery. Lots of if's and buts. But we know these are some huge news items coming which will be highly significant and influence the market. I don't think the rise will be influenced so much by Private Retail Investors this time as we are more likely to see larger investors coming in based on the right news. Although for the right RNS they may well be a lot of watchers who will pipe in on the right news. The potential for a very large rise on the right news will be just the ticket for many as anyone who is looking at potential returns and profits based on success will know well the potential profits and the significance for Avacta.

Lets see what is next. Whatever happens, I will be quiet again as business calls!

Have good evening all!

Cheers, Rich

Thanks Seadogsteve, I am just fine. Just got in after a day of business meetings.
Not sold or bought any today. No RNS then but it will come when they are ready.
Amazing business is really stepping up again! The concern is people are not taking enough precautions! Same response though with respect would you test your employees? Yes but how much - £10 - no way! £2 - yes it is cheaper than PPE! But, then most factories are not wearing masks or gloves! Even in packaging companies! So expect more lockdowns soon.
I see that most here are posting morning, noon and night so mainly retired souls.
Interesting day.
Cheers Rich

Doggy100, you are right. I am quite sure we will get an RNS this week. The potential news flow from multiple facets of the business it inevitable that we should see at least one a week. At this point especially in the cycle with such speed of development. Will it actually be tomorrow, only Alastair Smith and the Investor Communications Team will know for sure.
I really wanted to highlight the new news item which should be announced which others may not have considered:
- production capacity for Affimers which will be used on in the mass spectrometry systems and then the sets for LFD. It would be fascinating to learn how many tests can be produced from the quantities of Affimer. I can’t imagine there will be much used in each test.
Cheers Rich

HL shows 115/116 - But, down 6.09% & -7p.

The question is not the close it is where will it open in the morning!
Cheers Rich

I am expecting one! Get ready for spike time!
Favourite is partnerships!
Another unexpected one might be Avacta announcement on production capacities of Affimers ready for BAMS / LFD production. That is one question nobody here has considered and no information has been given. But on successful BAMS / LFA it will be fundamental!
Let’s see!
Cheers Rich

Just to answer the thread title!
Well, it is no secret to anyone on this board that I am positive about the future of Avacta and from any discussions on this board as well as the attention to detail from the Avacta management to present and deliver on goals in a timely and clear way, which for a Biotech company is no mean feat. The detailed expatiations found on the Avacta website as per my post below are so worthy of time.
The question that every investor wants to know is what does this mean to the companies market capitalisation and to investors the share price or as the subject ‘the potential’.

I think you will find some detailed guidance as an opinion from Myles (Aim Chaos), in his series of papers put together.

But if you would like a simple estimation of thoughts over the months ahead based on news, delivery of BAMS, POC, Stage 1 SARS-COV2 Neutraliser, Stage 1 AVA6000 clinical trials and beyond here goes. These are potential share price estimations and there are many factors which may affect these so please do not hold me to them!

1. Succesful BAMS clinical testing and first partnership with sales - Share price moving into the £2 to £3 range
2. Partnership to develop the SARS-COV-2 Blocker - £2.50 to £3.50
3. Succesful approval for the Point of Care LFD with a minimum of two production partnerships and a number of large orders - £4 to £5
4. Increased sales of POC test and numbers growing exponentially around the world £5 to £8
5. Confirmation of first clinical trials for AVA6000 £5 to £8
6. Successful clinical trials for AVA6000 / SARS-COV-2 and moving to stage 2 and stage 3 clinical trials - £10 to £15

Beyond this and within 18 to 24 months with continued progress a share price in excess of £20.

I am sure many will make many comments on this and they are all welcome but these amy thoughts.
Cheers, Rich

Suddenly 4p?

Me neither, but very happy in both! As well as a few others!
Cheers Rich

Hi Peter, I hope all is well with you and your family!
You are right, I am sure. I think we will have this virus around for a long time. Testing is key. It is interesting though talking to business clients what they would be willing to pay to test their employees each day if we can produce the LFD for a low cost. Many consider the cost of 3 pairs of gloves and two masks per day the maximum. So you are looking at circa £2. In environments where a high degree of high risk, ie medical device manufactures the price is much higher. But where you have low-cost workers the companies dont want the additional cost over masks, gloves and a simple temperature test.
It starts to make sense that we may see two levels of LFT coming to market. The question is can they build a test for such a low cost. I think the answer will be yes. A pregnancy test is circa £5. The sales numbers are not as big as the numbers involved in Covid testing. I hope Avacta can achieve the gold standard and silver standard tests at prices which work. This is the only way to ensure people/companies /restaurants etc can act responsibly. Flying would need the gold standard and should be compulsory. This is going to be interesting how it plays out.
At the right price, the world will be testing everyone almost every day, certainly the first world parts. our test should be able to be the cheapest due to the easy production of Affimers.
Looking forward to how this plays out.
Cheers, Rich

Just gone through. Nice!
Cheers Rich

mapp it is the The World Health Organisation!
You been hiding recently? :-)
Cheers Rich

“ Dr Tedros told a virtual briefing on Monday: "We all want this to be over. We all want to get on with our lives. But the hard reality is this is not even close to being over.
"Although many countries have made some progress, globally the pandemic is actually speeding up."
“ With 10 million cases now and half a million deaths, unless we address the problems we've already identified at WHO, the lack of national unity and lack of global solidarity and the divided world which is actually helping the virus to spread... the worst is yet to come," he said.
"I'm sorry to say that, but with this kind of environment and conditions we fear the worst."
He also urged more governments to follow the examples of Germany, South Korea and Japan, which kept their outbreak in check through policies that included rigorous testing and tracing.
The US has reported more than 2.5 million cases and about 126,000 deaths with Covid-19 so far - more than any other nation.
US states that emerged from lockdown in recent weeks - notably in the south - have been reporting sharp increases in new infections in recent weeks.
The spike has led officials in Texas, Florida and other states to tighten restrictions on business again.
The country with the second-highest number of recorded cases is Brazil, with a total of 1.3 million, and deaths in excess of 57,000.
On Monday a state of emergency was declared in the capital Brasilia, following a surge there.
Like most Brazilian governors and mayors, the local authorities in Brasilia eased social distancing restrictions earlier this month and allowed shops to reopen
In the UK - the country with the greatest number of deaths in Western Europe - the mayor of Leicester said pubs and restaurants might stay closed for two more weeks due to a spike in cases.

The conclusion is the only way is mass testing! Avacta’s POC test is now looking more and more essential!
Cheers Rich

“The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned the worst could still be to come in the Covid-19 pandemic.

WHO leader Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned the virus would infect many more people if governments did not start to implement the right policies.

He said his message remains "Test, Trace, Isolate and Quarantine".

More than 10 million cases have been recorded and 500,000 people have died since the coronavirus emerged in China last year.

The virus is now spreading rapidly in Latin America and is also badly affecting South Asia and Africa.“

From the BBC news feed.
Cheers Rich

One very large city very close to many other towns and cities. After the recent reduction in lockdown this represents a huge risk to the East Midlands. People really need to take extra care.
My wife had her life saving operation in Leicester Royal Infirmary and the nurses in ITU there were like angels! Amazing. I hope that all stay safe and well. It one of the East Midlands main specialist cancer hospitals. Yet again the reason for mass testing is super clear to all.
Stay safe all!
Cheers Rich

If stories like this don’t bring tears to peoples eyes and see the absolute mess we will have without accurate mass testing for all. I really think that Avacta has the test that cannot only be major contribution to the control of the virus be making clear if we have the virus or not, but that with mass manufacturing it can be low cost too. Likely to be the most accurate and the lowest cost. If Avacta can within months lower the cost from the initial target cost to just a few pounds / euros / dollars it will be used everywhere everyday.
It would be better to sell billions at low cost and make mass low margin and save lives than sell millions and not become a global overnight brand.
This depends on the partners production capabilities.
It will come. We need to protect the people. It of course starts with people taking the virus seriously! It has no mercy.
Cheers Rich

Blimmy, there must be a line of new paid derampers down at the job centre still signing up to post on LSE to bring gloom to the most interesting companies list in the market.
If Admin introduced two stage authentication to people and they had to give real details these boards would not be filled with signed up today fools.
Come on LSE Admin you know it would be so much better.
Thanks Rich

Why are some posters here still expecting the LFD point of care test not to be the market leader? If people considered thar points made last Wednesday by Alastair Smith in the presentation with respect to the main goals for testing, there were many hints our test would be in the best point range. He would never have made theses points if we were not going to achieve these results. They know, but they need everything all together on the manufactured product in hand with independent verification and FDA approval. Then the good standard will be in place.
At no time in the next few weeks will I be thinking anything other than this. Theses things take time and I am very happy for the process to be completed.
Cheers Rich