Member Info for RichKen

So the new employee shares are on this date. Clearly if news comes before this date the company will continue to share items as required. But the really big news may well come after this date.
In the meantime we may continue in a pattern which the shrewd can continue to build there portfolio ready for big news items.
We can be sure that a big news item could come at anytime, but most likely in a 7am RNS. So being out over night and missing a sharp rise would be highly risky.
This virus is showing no signs of retreat, in fact the opposite and countries and taking risks with there people because the economies need to move on. Collateral damage is inevitable, but the human race will continue on. Testing and the right PPE is vital.
Cheers Rich

The World Health Organization has acknowledged there is emerging evidence that the coronavirus can be spread by tiny particles suspended in the air.
The airborne transmission could not be ruled out in crowded, closed or poorly ventilated settings, an official said.
If the evidence is confirmed, it may affect guidelines for indoor spaces.
An open letter from more than 200 scientists had accused the WHO of underestimating the possibility of airborne transmission.
The WHO has so far said that the virus is transmitted through droplets when people cough or sneeze.
"We wanted them to acknowledge the evidence," Jose Jimenez, a chemist at the University of Colorado who signed the paper, told the Reuters news agency.
"This is definitely not an attack on the WHO. It's a scientific debate, but we felt we needed to go public because they were refusing to hear the evidence after many conversations with them," he said.

So many are still no wearing face coverings when out or in the work place! The need for testing grows everyday!
Cheers Rich

Good morning all, the news will come when they are ready, the key point is that the share price is recovering nicely in anticipation and that is what is needed.
Let's see where the mm's take us today and if people will continu to build there postions. We know this is very likely to grow quickly with the right news based on the pipeline presented by the company.
Hope you all have a good day.
Cheers,
Rich

We often use the words ramping a share. But, seldom do you see shares jump quite so much. Tesla the ‘small’ electric car company today has had their share price jump by a mere $163 today and they have a market cap exceeding 254 billion US dollars. Good news for those with SMT shares. That trust fund me listed in the UK is Tesla’s largest share holder.
I am sure our Jonesrichard must me a Tesla supporter. So there share price is $1371 per share. How high will it go? Mr Elon Musk will be heading to be the worlds richest man.
Interesting off topic.
Cheers Rich

Kong1 that will do nicely if that is there profit.
Cheers Rich.

O&W I have a client who is distributing a RPOC test which involves a pin prick of blood. Results in 15 minutes. The test is manufactured in the US. It is sold in minimum boxes of 250 tests in a box at £10 per test. Due to NDA I am not going to tell you who this is or it’s specifics. But, for all it is a very good guide of where we need to be. But, I will say I am very confident that our test is going to be more accurate. But that company has been a world leader in malaria testing. Which is an area that Avacta could easily look at.
I have said many times sales price is key. I think our price will start higher but will fall over time as production is ramped up. If the product is so good it will sell under its own merits.
I have many Global clients making medical devices and supply them.
Cheers Rich

I didn’t know Dianne Abbott was in the UK government Alwayswinning? Why would the UK government order 100 million units. I guess you know the UK population numbers.
Given what MrsKOB mentioned this evening I stick to social distancing! They will be better spending the money on our virus neutraliser. Hopefully only need 1% of the volume of the vaccine. Much more cost effective.
Cheers Rich

TL I gave my real view on potential valuations and share price in a post from this morning.
I think these numbers are realistic, but we will see.
The future will be revealed in the weeks ahead and the RNS’s uncovering partnerships and data as well as products to market. This will be gauged and the market value will be underlined by the global situation with respect the virus situation globally, but here in the UK as well.
If we have a further second spikes UK, interest and momentum will be great indeed. Especially if we see some large gains in the next two weeks.
Time will tell. But you have to be very optimistic that the confidence of the CEO Alastair Smith will be realised.
Cheers Rich

Well Brightspark! Let’s go on a PE of 10. I think Avacta would dwarf Tesla! LOL!
The fact is we don’t know the final profit, we don’t know how many we will sell per month.
I guess for the market size you have to look at the numbers Novacyt are selling in terms of PCR tests. That gives an idea of the numbers which are obtainable. There are many many players out there, but simple, fast and low cost will be the money.
Given there were over 200,000 new cases in the last 24 hours you have to say that means 200,000 people were tested. That means the market is at least 5 times that as not everyone who is tested will be positive. Also right now not all parts of the world have the tests available. But let’s say 1 million tests per day. That is 365 million per year as it is today. With mass testing we could easily see 10 times that number.
But only time will tell. Avacta’s job is to get the best test to market as soon as possible with the shortest result time and most accurate results that are possible at a price which makes all other tests irrelevant. Not asking much I know.
Cheers Rich.

DOH85, yes sorry that is the market! I was watching the race! I think Avacta has the ‘potential’ to take at least 10 percent of the market to start with, however if the test really is as good as expected and the price is super competitive they could take a larger and larger share of the market. It is truly dependent on how much the world truly puts its requirement on testing. Given the global population of over 7.5 billion people and people may need to be tested multiple times depending on their location and the exposure risk, or work place, the number tests required may be way above the market expectation.
The world needs testing like nothing else until the virus neutraliser is available around the world.
Thanks for picking me up there! I should have re-read my post before posting.
Cheers Rich.

Avacta expect to sell 100 million to 200million tests per month Once the test is validated.
That is a lot of tests with a good margin for Avacta. If that pans out then the revenue in the next twelve months will be enormous. Imagine more than 70p per unit profit....
Cheers Rich

Antelope, you might want to spend some time on the Avacta website, especially the ‘news’ section, you will fin a huge amount of information and presentations.
https://avacta.com/news/
Hope this helps, but Avacta are far more than just a Covid19 testing company. Which I am sure your research will unlock.
Cheers Rich

Bram, I would say it is imminent, but is that this week, I cannot tell you. But if it was how amazing would that be. It is one of the most important announcements as it will really help development of the use of Affimer technology ‘in the body’. You would expect the work to be partnered with a company also looking to use the ‘warhead’ chemotherapy treatments.
Cheers Rich

If you would like a simple estimation of thoughts over the months ahead based on news, delivery of BAMS, POC, Stage 1 SARS-COV2 Neutraliser, Stage 1 AVA6000 clinical trials and beyond here goes.

These are potential share price estimations and there are many factors which may affect these so please do not hold me to them!

1. Succesful BAMS clinical testing and first partnership with sales - Share price moving into the £2 to £3 range
2. Partnership to develop the SARS-COV2 Blocker - £2.50 to £3.50
3. Succesful approval for the Point of Care LFD with a minimum of two production partnerships and a number of large orders - £4 to £5
4. Increased sales of POC test and numbers growing exponentially around the world £5 to £8
5. Confirmation of first clinical trials for AVA6000 £5 to £8
6. Successful clinical trials for AVA6000 and moving to stage 2 and stage 3 clinical trials - £10 to £15

Beyond this and within 18 to 24 months with continued progress a share price in excess of £20.

I am sure many will make many comments on this and they are all welcome but this is my thoughts!

Cheers Rich

When we look at the potential for Avacta it is all about Affimer technology.

This is a patented technology which is used to detect proteins and works like a magnet. The Affimer is a powerful magnet and the target is like particles of iron fillings and those targets are found quickly in the body.

We have seen that Avacta have developed the pre|CISION technology for delivering a drug to a target, with the focus on chemotherapy drugs to cancer cells.

Then our focus is currently on diagnostics and right now having a group of Affimers which can detect the protein on the spike on the Covid19 virus. This will come to market either in the form of lab diagnostic or on a test which will use a simple strip like a pregnancy test called a lateral flow device. This Avacta test will use saliva.

The potential is to be able to use Affirmers for diagnostics in many other deceases and illnesses. But given the work in cancer treatments which will go through stage 1 trials late this year and completed in Q1 2021, it is more than possible that Affirmers could be used for diagnostics in oncology. This would speed up the opportunity to treat a patient. The company have not given anything of this away at this point, but it must be a strong possibility. Imagine you have a simple diagnostic test to specific cancers and then you could use a targeted treatment to destroy the cancer cells, the whole oncology process could be simplified and this would save billions financially and of course save lives. The combination for Avacta IP could prove to be incredible.

It is a question I think I would like to see answered by Alastair Smith at some point in the future.

Does anyone else think this is possible? The impact would be huge.

Cheers Rich.

Whilst we are desperate for mass testing to become available, the almost more important development is the collaborative work with the Centre for Virus Research at the University of Glasgow has shown that Affimer reagents which bind to the SARS-COV-2 virus spike protein prevent infection of human cells by a SARS-COV-2 model virus and therefore provide a potential therapy for COVID-19 infection.

Recently, Avacta reported that several of the Affimer reagents that had been generated to develop COVID-19 antigen tests inhibited the interaction between the coronavirus' spike protein and a receptor found on human cells, called ACE2, which the virus spike protein binds to as the first step in infecting cells.

Avacta has now successfully completed the initial phase of a collaboration with Professor David Bhella at the University of Glasgow showing that these "neutralising" Affimer reagents prevent a SARS-COV-2 model virus from entering human cells and therefore provide a potential therapy for COVID-19.

Affimer reagents have key benefits compared with antibodies as virus neutralising therapies: Their small size and high solubility means that a much higher concentration of Affimer molecules can be used in the drug formulation to more effectively block the spike proteins on each virus particle and better protect the patient; bispecific and trispecific Affimer neutralising therapies that bind to more than one part of the spike protein could ensure the effectiveness of the neutralising therapy even if the virus' spike protein mutates.

Neutralising therapies could be given to those exposed to the virus, such as health and social-care workers, to prevent infection, as well as to patients already infected by the virus, to help treat and prevent disease progression. There is ongoing significant investment by large pharmaceutical companies such as AstraZeneca, GSK, Boehringer Ingelheim and others to develop neutralising therapies for COVID-19.

Given the excellent performance of these novel reagents in the assays, and the other benefits of Affimer reagents, there should be considerable interest from potential partners in developing them as a therapy for COVID-19.

The next announcement from Avacta on this massive break through will be hugely valuable and this partnership when it is announced will be transformational for all their therapeutic Affimer technology.

Could this come this week? I hope it comes very soon. It will again take many months to go through the testing and stage 1 clinical trials, but this is the key to stopping the the danger in 2021.

The value of this treatment could be huge.

Cheers Rich

The value of this company when we are able to realise annual capacity of 8400 mtV per year with all in costs of say $19 US per kilo and a sales price $30 US per kilo, let alone higher prices.
When you consider a 50% of this volume could be turned into vanadium electrolyte which will have a considerably higher market value, let alone the lease incomes which will come from this over a 30 year life of a VRFB system the numbers which can be earned per year by Bushveld are astronomical.
So investing here based on a two to three year plan is likely to produce exceptional returns. Let alone the short term growth over the next few months. With global infrastructure projects getting huge funding to get the global economy back on track, the steel and energy markets will likely see a huge upturn. Vanadium has been a key mineral used to strengthen steel and rebar production used in construction is one of the key drivers. Today the amount of vanadium required in rebar is regulated and this means the percentages used is much higher than before. This is good news for vanadium demand. This may lead to increases in global vanadium pricing as demand could be higher than the market can supply, which could accelerate profits here.
So short term and long term revenues look very good.
Cheers RK

A company who are involved in the world of vanadium!
- Bushveld Minerals are a "Profitable Vertically Integrated Vanadium Business!"
- With 3 mines – Vametco, Brits and Mokopane
- Nitrovan is a key product to strengthen steel from its Vametco Mine
- Vanadium is also used in a breaking electrolyte technology used in large energy storage batteries
- Bushveld has two processing plants Vametco 3200 mtV and Vanchem 1100 mtV - currently producing a combination of 4300 mtV, in last year with an average selling price of circa US$40 per kilo with an operating cost of circa US$19 – but operation costs are now much lower in 2020
- Bushveld has plans to more than double the capacity of these two plants to 8400 mtV pa within 3 years
- Of the 3 mines Vametco is in full operation, Brits is an extension to Vametco and Mokopane which has its licence for mining fully approved and this will be the largest high-grade Vanadium mine in the world – DFS later this year and expect the mine to be opened in 2021
- Bushveld has built up a new division called Bushveld Energy which has part ownership of Invinity Energy Storage plc and Enerox GmbH part of its VIP program.
- Bushveld Energy has installed at the Eskom Battery Test facility a VRFB which has been operational over a year which is being used for evaluation purposes
- The Bushveld Electrolyte Company is building a Vanadium Electrolyte 200MWh plant in East London (SA)
- The Electrolyte plant will eventually have the capacity for 1000MWh of electrolyte
- 1000MWh of electrolyte needs approximately 5000 mtV per year
- Bushveld Energy is working with multiple partners around the world through Vanitec to build the strongest business case for VRFB
- Bushveld Energy plan to build an assembly plant for VRFB is SA – an Enerox subsidiary is possible?
- The world supply chain for vanadium remains in deficit and today even more so, Bushveld Minerals are so far ahead of the other players. Prices will be rising quickly.

Vanadium prices are rising in 2020 with the price close to US$26 per kilo and our cost is below US$15 per kilo and we will be producing circa 4,000,000 kilos of vanadium in 2020!

The current limited supply puts Bushveld in one of the strongest positions as a primary Vanadium supplier with strong revenue growth predicted year on year!

If you are not sure - then read this:

Last financial report here:https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5eea233d5e278421d0698edb/5f01a11575c33f15e4927f06

Latest broker report following 2020 Q4 from SP Angel:
https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_Q1_Prodn_2020.pdf

Company presentation – February 2020:
http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/BMN-Mining-Indaba-2020-Corporate-Presentation-Updated04022020.pdf

Latest Interview with our CEO
https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5eb2c08331da814c9fc6e6a1/bushveld-minerals-limited-q1-2020-operational-update-interview

Cheers RK

O&W that JV project is likely to bring Substantial value to Avacta and the opportunity to create a virus blocking treatment maybe the key to wiping it out, certainly it will stop it in its tracks and safe lives.
Let’s hope that JV is announced very soon.
Cheers Rich

So the UK forgot that we have been through lockdown in 2020. A new day July 4th and people go out and that Virus is forgotten!
If we don’t have a huge second wave and another lockdown in 2020 it will be a surprise.
I am amazed at people’s response to opening up. Let’s hope there isn’t a huge spike post yesterday.

If there is I am sure Avacta’s new Rapid Point of Care Covid19 test will be ready to meet the new challenge.

Have a good Sunday all.
Cheers Rich