SP Angel Daily News2 Nov 2018 10:28
China’s stronger steel drive will bankroll more vanadium mines
China’s push to lift the quality of steel for the construction sector is set to bankroll the global wave of new primary vanadium production to meet the growing deficit, while the expected boom in giant batteries will only exacerbate the scramble for supply.
Standards in China that came into force Thursday require steel producers to increase the amount of vanadium, which hardens the alloy, added to certain classes of reinforced bar products. It’s partly a drive to make buildings more resilient to earthquakes. Since the changes were announced in February, prices of the metal in China have surged more than 150%, according to Asian Metal Inc. data.
Managing director of Australian Vanadium Ltd., Vincent Algar, notes “it’s almost that perfect storm for a commodity – you have a step-change in demand that’s being enforced in the biggest market in the world and a constrained supply”.
Changes to strength standards could add 30,000-40,000t of annual demand to about a 100,000tpa market which is currently so extremely tight that exports from the Asian nation are not being offered. That’ll underwrite new mine projects in Australia and the U.S., and boost existing producers like Glencore Plc, Largo Resources Ltd. and Bushveld Minerals Ltd. “There’s plenty of room in this market for additional vanadium,” he said.
China’s stricter standards are intended to limit the use of inferior steels in construction and follow previous policy changes ushered in following the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, industry consultant Roskill Information Services said in February. The quake was the strongest to hit China since 1950, with more than 87,000 people reported killed or missing.
Vanadium prices are likely to retreat as new supply comes into the market over the next couple of years, though they should settle above the long-term average and enable project developers to make good margins, according to Algar. However, new supply from advanced-stage exploration companies will take more than three years to come online.
Steel accounts for more than 90% of current demand, though in the longer-term the sector is also likely to be bolstered by the adoption of vanadium redox flow batteries suitable for large-scale energy storage projects, and to store renewable power, he said.