Member Info for RichKen

Part 1
Last year it was cobalt. The year before that it was lithium.
This year it is vanadium, another esoteric element of the periodic table that is on a wild bull rampage.
Vanadium prices in China have more than tripled over the course of 2018, albeit with some recent softening from their early-November peaks.
The share price of South Africa’s Bushveld Minerals, one of only a handful of primary producers, has soared from less than 10 pence per share at the start of the year to 42 pence currently.
Vanadium is the latest exotic metal to feel the new energy heat. The vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) is a breakthrough technology in energy storage, a fast-growing component of the infrastructure needed to accommodate the global shift to renewable energy.
Vanadium’s problem, however, is that there is already a structural shortage of the stuff rooted in its historical co-dependence on the steel sector.
Supply scarcity and the resulting price volatility are the two biggest hurdles to vanadium’s potential bright electric future. Adding just one kilogram of vanadium to a tonne of steel has the effect of doubling the strength of the steel. That explains why the steel sector accounts for just over 90 percent of global usage, according to analysts at SP Angel. (“Commodity Research Note: Vanadium”, Q1 2018)
Given China’s dominance of global steel production, it’s no great surprise that the country is the single largest user of vanadium.
And it’s China that has laid the foundations for vanadium’s spectacular price rally this year.
The country has changed the specifications of high-strength rebar construction steel to improve earthquake resistance. The changes, just implemented, will drive higher use of vanadium and although the amounts involved are tiny, the cumulative impact will be to increase Chinese consumption by around 10,000 tonnes per year, according to SP Angel, citing China’s Iron and Steel Research Institute.
That’s the equivalent of around 12 percent of global vanadium production in 2016. This one-off demand boost is happening just as China is weakening its own supply capacity as part of its drive to introduce more environmentally friendly policies. To compound this evolving supply challenge, Beijing has also banned the import of four types of vanadium s l a g, cutting off around 4,500-5,000 tonnes of annual supply from Russia, according to SP Angel. Another potential source of supply, stone coal, is also being restricted by China’s war on smog.
Chinese regulators are refusing to issue permits to existing stone coal producers and although there is a collective attempt to upgrade processes to achieve lower emissions, the short-term effect is to reduce even further China’s vanadium production capacity.

Knuttie - job completed !
Thanks my friend.

Thanks SOTTR. Most helpful.

So Tyfoon, the figures I put together last night are going to be close. This was based on info provided by both BBN and Ophidian and then looking conservatively towards next year.

It will be very interesting.

I think the the most fascinating point is what will happen to the FeV price. The outlook from what we see is it must continue to rise as the supply continues to be constrained with insufficient new sources coming on line. The only unknown is do the Chinese have more resources than we actually know. If they don’t then it will surely take a minimum of 2 years till we see new supplies coming on line. By which time we should be at 5000 mtv, and hopefully Mokopane will be close to full production. Then what ever happens, we will be in the right place either supplying the world with high quality vanadium or feeding our fully in production electrolyte plant. Either way we will be in the driving seat.
Great future, great company and there is only one Bushveld Minerals.

Oh, I am feeling chipper tonight, as I have my Claire back home. Still of course not 100% but great to have her home! Off to help her now.

Take care all and have a good night.

Cheers
RK.

Faramog, I think it would be safe to work on the total for 2018 and then add 20% to the total.
The reason for this is there will still be plant maintenance as well as interruption for the upgrades to 5000 mtv per year. This always effects production in some way or another.
There are multiple forecasts of the FeV prices dropping in 2019. Who can say? We are all surely thinking it will go up still further. So we could use $115 per kilo as a safe one or be optimistic and go for $130 for year average.
Of course one other consideration is that the upgrade will be completed early say end of August and we could have an exceptional run rate to Christmas 2019.
All things to muse over!
Cheers
RK.

Alfa, you are 100% correct. That last figure should have been $.
I copied this from last nights post which gave the correct numbers and calculations at 20:32.
My understanding was our Quarterlies finished end of November. If that is incorrect then I apologise for any miss information.
Cheers
RK.

Hi Knuttie, the Christmas shut down will impact Q1 for 2019.
Cheers
RK

Just a reminder from my post yesterday:

This would then give a total for the year:
Q1 - 731 mtv - Ave price $61.8
Q2 - 629 mtv - Ave price
$65.5 for H1 - $89,080,000
Q3 - 537 mtv - Ave price $85.8 - $46,074,600
Q4 - 752 mtv (estimated) Ave price $112.40 - £84,524,800

Q4 2017 - RNS was on the 22nd January 2018
Bushveld Vametco Only

Q4 produced 539 mtV
Q4 Sold 636 mtV
Average selling price - are you ready? $39.1 per kilo

Production:

Vametco produced 2,649 mtV in the form of Nitrovan® from magnetite concentrate during the 2017 calendar year. Vanadium production decreased by 7.2% relative to the 2016 calendar year due to increased maintenance downtime.

· Vanadium production for the December 2017 quarter decreased by approximately 19.4% relative to the September quarter due to the kiln riding ring repair and kiln upgrades. The intervention on the kiln has allowed increased kiln feed, as part of the second phase of the expansion project.

· Vanadium production of approximately 3,680 mtV consisting of 3,050 mtV Nitrovan® and 630 mtV Ferrovanadium (FeV) (converting modified vanadium oxide (MVO) to FeV) is expected in the 2018 calendar year, supported by the ramp-up of the second phase of the expansion project which is expected to increase Vametco's production capacity from the current 3,035 mtV to 3,750 mtV per annum by June 2018 for a self-funded capital expenditure of approximately US$2.5 million.

· Unit production cost for the 2018 calendar year is expected to decrease from ZAR 221/KgV in 2017, by approximately 7% to ZAR 205/KgV, mainly due to economies of scale.

I hope this helps and proves interesting!

Cheers,
RK

Yachty, Thia is interesting did you have the numbers by any chance? It would be amazing to find out the production figure for the month in tonnes. Would your source share do you think?

Cheers,
RK

Well, It has been a busy day so far for me! The Bushy Report is in with Alfa. It will keep you busy over Christmas with plenty of reading!

I see the price is recovering very nicely 7% up.

It should be with a very fine quarter 4 just completed with an average price at $112.4

Current pricing around $123. Potential for around 3400 to 3700 tonnes in 2019.

2019 is looking potentially to be an explosive year for Bushveld
Expansion of the mining operation
Brits resource being opened up
The building of the electrolyte plant for up to 1000 MWH
Development of the partnership with UET and supply potential into Eskom and other opportunities for energy storage in Africa
New investors coming in from South Africa as they confirm listing on the JSE
Confirmation of an incredible revenue and profits in 2018 in from final accounts
A dividend policy which will reward investors but allow considerable re-investment back into the business to allow it to grow and flourish through the vision and determination of the whole Bushveld team
Maximisation of value for Lemur as it goes into full construction ready to supply power in Madagascar in 2021
Developments which will light up all investors eyes and see our stock price continue its growth and make many very happy indeed!

Have you not joined us yet. Do some research and get on board!

Soon you will have something very easy to learn more from in one easy document!

Exciting times these!

Cheers,
RK

"Vanadium prices fall in China but rise in Western Europe

Ferro-vanadium prices fell 7% last week in China to US$119-129.5/kg according to the Metal Bulletin .
Prices rose in Western Europe by 7.9% to US$122.08-125.22/kg indicating potential for a shortage to develop in Europe as Chinese traders keep material at home.
Ferro-vanadium prices fell $1/kg overnight in China to 124.5/kg according to AsiaMetals.com.
Energy Fuels which aims to be the world’s newest vanadium producer is looking to produce some 91-102t per month of vanadium by starting in Q4 from the White Mesa Mill in the US.
The production, from recoverable dissolved V2O5 in pond solution, is reported to run for 16-20 months which will help to ease developing shortages of the metal."

For us, as the majority goes to the US it is very good news. This market is still in deficit and another 100 tonnes per much is not going to impact the market the US.

Cheers,

RK

Love a coffee. Thanks Alfa! Report has been making progress!

This is starting to lift very nicely today on HL we are 41.0 / 42.0 and up 3.8%

Lots of blue for buys showing as well. Maybe the brakes are coming off a little.

Given we the potential fantastic Q4 and the gradual picture building for Bushveld Energy we are setting up for a truly massive 2019.

Cheers,
RK

Thanks Vauch good point! I should have factored that in!

I haven't used the sold figures for each quarter only the production figures.

I am just getting to that on my 2018 Bushveld Minerals Year document. Coming to the Bushveld Perspective in the near future!

Cheers,
RK

Hi BBN and All!
Firstly thanks BBN for your very kind message earlier it was much appreciated. Also a huge thanks for all your considerable, incredibly interesting and insightful thoughts today with respect to the future of Bushveld Energy and your thoughts on Q4. It is interesting to see your take on Q4 numbers as a minimum at 725 mtv. Ophidians mean at 752 mtv. If we go back to Q1 2018 it was 731 mtv but going back to Q2 2017 they achieved 792 mtv and this was before the upgrade and the motivation which should now be present in the workforce following the settlement back in September. So we can expect the figures to be somewhere in this range. So a very good Q4 indeed. Quite what impact Christmas and the New Year will have on Q1 2019, but if we look at last year and hope a 20% increase then maybe 870 mtv could be possible depending on any maintenance, this is roughly in line with an increase from 3050 mt pa to 3750 mt pa. With an average of $118 minimum then this would be another very good quarter indeed and show that the companies issues are well and truly behind it.

This would then give a total for the year:
Q1 - 731 mtv - Ave price $61.8
Q2 - 629 mtv - Ave price $65.5 for H1 - $89,080,000
Q3 - 537 mtv - Ave price $85.8 - $46,074,600
Q4 - 752 mtv (estimated) Ave price $112.40 - £84,524,800

Total 2649 mtv - Total revenue from mined for 2018 will be $219,679,400 - A very good number

Total operating costs $86,092,500

This gives $133,586,900 profit x 74% = $98,854,306 and then £76,041,773 profit. ($1.3 to £1)

So if anyone has any doubts if this was a good year for Bushveld Minerals and are they a bonafide Miner and Processor this should answer their questions1

If we then look in to 2019 and just assume a 20% lift on 2018 but at an average price of $115 per kilo it should look like this:

3178 mtv - $365,562,000 in revenue from that mined
or if we get close to the Production rate possible of 3750 mtv - $431,250,000 in revenue from that mined

So even with a realistic head in place and not getting to excited, this are very good figures indeed! let's hope that FeV continues to go up and maybe even reach $150 per kg. This would lift these figures again. Then we may even have the plant upgrade completed in Q3 which would give us another record Q4 potential. Looking very good!

So with all this let's hope to see our SP going back in the direction towards a realistic value exceeding 87p.

If that was not good news I am pleased to say my Claire has improved dramatically today, although still in hospital she is much stronger hopefully back home tomorrow.

Back to working now...

Cheers,
RK

Knuttie, Thanks for your very kind comments my friend. Yes this is a really tough time and my Claire is being very brave. This is just cycle one of two. I know you have been through all this and it is so incredibly tough. Chemotherapy just saps energy and makes you so sleepy as well as incredibly nauseous. For anyone who has not witnessed it first hand the changes in just two days are just huge. I think we are on quite a journey here.

Makes stock price variances, fall into insignificance and focuses the mind on the real bigger picture. The end goal.

Doesn't change the fact that we are on this board for one reason and we are one very powerful and influential team trying to help one another for the common good of others around us.

Of to the hospital now.

Cheers RK

BBN - It sounds like this project as it moves forward will prove to be yet another bargain, in the same light as we acquired Vametco and prove to absolutely set this company on a course which will change its history forever and turn it into an inspiration to the people of Africa.
Again a huge thanks from us all for your research and insight. Is there any chance you can start writing our RNS's. I think Fortune needs to hire you for your skills.
I know the Electrolyte plant will be built in phases, but can anyone confirm what is the approximate requirement of Vanadium per 1000 MWh of electrolyte produced?
If we are excited now about the growth in 2019. Once this plant is built and in production how exciting is 2020 going to be!
Cheers,
RK

Thanks Ophidian! Thanks too for your kind words! I had the number in my head but was not 100% sure so I thought it was best to check!

752 MtV will be a very good result. Let's hope they have an exceptional run of mine and the numbers exceed expectations. They deserved a really good quarter after the challenges in Q3.

Cheers,
RK

Wise words Ophidian!

By the way, can you confirm your estimated Q4 numbers? I know you spent some serious time calculating this. It may help give the board something else to focus on!

Great broker forecasts Nick. Thanks.

Cheers,
RK

Good morning Ladies and Gents,
Long night for me in the hospital with my Claire. But she is getting amazing care and having had a bit of sleep I am back on the task started yesterday! She is getting all the care from the incredible staff! I can go in for visiting later. Tough times are these.
Back to BMN...
There may be a few worried investors as the SP drifts back a little. But this is just normal as a company grows it goes up, then as a partial retrace then it bounces up again. We are still relatively unknown and until we have Q$ Vametco numbers in place and then H2 results in and finally a full set of phenomenal accounts set in place on our financials on all the trading platforms, outsiders are going to be cautious as they just see us as another AIM player which may have hit its peak and is now going off the boil. Well, anyone one who has been here for some time and completed full and in-depth research will now otherwise. We are on the edge of moving up to the next level.
The current fall back will not be here long and we must be very close to the bottom. In my view having just completed Q4 at Vametco, with the workforce pumped up and a more focused run of mine we should expect not only an increase in production as calculated by Ophidian but with the average selling price of around $110 per kilo, the figures should be very good indeed. I think the forecast was around 750 tonnes for the quarter. So these should give the market something to get very excited about.
If you have some spare cash into would be a very good time to get in. It cant be long before the pendulum swings back and momentum takes us onto the next level. There is a lot of hard work going in the background to raise the profile of this business to the world and we can all help this by sharing and talking about this incredible story. I am working on something as many others are.

So don't lose heart now, but be very excited as this really is going to the next level very soon and there is so much news to come! Cue NickDerby and BBN for some more exciting data on the months ahead.

Back to work for me!

Cheers,
RK