RE: V prices22 Jan 2019 18:11
Vauch - BigByteNow posted this earlier! He again has posted so great insight today:
From what I have been able to find out there is clear evidence that European FeV prices have at the very least bottomed out in this particular re-trace. My opinion only of course.
We should all appreciate that the combined period of the run up to Christmas and the Chinese New Year, is the strongest and longest period the vanadium price must endure without significant Chinese demand, across the entire year. It doesn't really matter if its down to winter stocks being run down, the extended holidays, the fact that steel mills in China really did stock up in anticipation of the new rebar regulations, or indeed a combination of all 3. It is about the fact that given the potential multiple headwinds out there, European FeV prices have been able to turn north right in the middle of that period when in reality they should be being pressured by Chinese stock that cannot find a home, but they aren't.
European FeV prices were as low as $71 on 21.12.2018. There is visible evidence that they were $75 on 04.01.2018 and that they have since risen to the $77-78 range as of last week. That is an impressive move given that Chinese prices are hovering around $70 and the Chinese market was very quiet during this stated period of rises in Europe and so the export market from China seeking better prices, should have been stronger.
Prices could well retrace a little as we approach the Chinese New Year but from what I have seen of the vanadium market these last 2 years or so, is that it is about the physical signal of a turn in the opposite direction that is key. Yes there have been minor corections along the way, but when the trend changes it is a solid and significant change.
More importantly, if European prices can rise during the Christmas holiday period, when Chinese traders remain active and have the opportunity of better prices, given they don't celebrate this holiday, then what does that say about the European market going forward into periods when those Chinese buyers come back in.
That is why for me the 10% or so move north over the Christmas period is more significant than it is currently being appreciated for. If Chinese prices had been higher than Europe then I would be less focused on this, but they weren't when this action started back on 21.12.2018. It's all opinion driven based on limited data, but I believe this lays the foundations for the strength of what we are about to witness post Chinese Year on all pricing fronts.