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Sorry made a few errors in that last post. I also neglected to say that if they get their broker, and the issues with the majority ownership of Freda are cleared up, and the gold and nickel prices come back, and that if they continued to reduce costs, and they manage to get the smelter up and running on time and budget, then this will once again look like an absolute bargain. But you have to agree, it is quite a big "If" and worth taking seriously rather than dismissing it as negative rubbish and simply looking at a 3 month old set of results as the basis for investment. good luck everyone still in, you deserve a break and I hope you get it. I took the hit and bailed but would love to come back
I really liked Mwana until all this mess. Things were looking really good. However, that chap below seems to be fairly correct in my opinion. Mpinga stated that he'd lose sleep if nickel ever dropped below 12,000. And is has done, and quite a lot below as well. So BNC will be struggling until the smelter is up and running, and even then we dont know whether it can be / how profitable it will be. Freda is loss making. The C1 cash costs are around the current gold price so all in costs are much higher. The recent results arent recent - we already knew all of the info from the quarterly update. The reall question people want answered will be in the results from April - June - how is the company coping with these suppressed gold and nickel prices, and has the downward cost move continued. Cards on the table, I bailed out of this when the clowns got back in a month ago. I tend to agree that this is heading for a private sell off on the cheap - but have no grounds other than the fact that I dont trust these chaps as far as I could throw them. I woudl say that we will probably see some poor results later this month / early august that will send the SP further down, and if the commodity prices dont turn around then it will either be another placing or a nice takeover from the Chinese / management. I'm "deramping" or whatever you want to call it. I really liked this company, and if it turn around then I'll be back in again. But right now I think the risks are even higher than they always were, and you'd be mad not to acknowledge that this is roulette and far from being a dead cert..
I sold up for 1.85p when mpinga was ousted and these chaps came in. Things were just starting to turn around and the loan status was a great achievement - only for the people that achieved it to be thrown out for a bunch of crooks (who have teamed up with the chinese) to come back. So let's think... The chinese sell up most of their interest, get chairman of the board, oust their foe, nickel price has collapsed, gold is going nowhere. So. Have the chinese shot themselves? Not by a long shot. The results at BNC will be awful - they are shutting down production for a couple of months as well so they will be awful next month. Even mpinga said he would worry if nickel went below 12,000. When the SP is next to nothing, the chinese will say thank you very much, and take the lot. I was really excited about this company, but I wish I'd stayed out after selling at 4p. Instead I got greedy and came back at 2.5p and various intervals down to 1.3p. I can't see anything good here now. What a shame. Good luck to anyone brave enough to see this through - I hope you get a decent reward! I can't stomach it though! AIM really is starting to feel like roulette...
So I bought back half at 1.7p, so we'll probably head further south. Sorry!
I really think this will be a fantastic company in a few months time, but we need some news showing cash costs back down to where they were prior to the last update in Feb, and we could we do with the nickel and gold pricing bouncing back up! i do think that the nickel price will rise and with luck it will reverse relatively quickly, but it does make sense if folks decide to bail out until we get some news, or turn around in commodity prices so I dont blame them. However, I think talk of defaulting payment, losing the company etc are a wee bit premature. I sold a quarter of my holding at 1.85 after being burnt earlier this year with the last release. I will definitely buy back, but am hoping that it will be around the 1.6-1.7 mark. I never time these things well though so it will likely rocket up tomorrow or later today!
Some nice comments about correcting the issues that resulted in higher costs for both Nickel and Gold rpoduction, encourging comments on Copper, and on the 3rd party smelting.... Could see this rising nicely if that gets confirmed in the next operations update....
Debt seems to be going up at a rate of $1m per month, and the costs of production are rising.... They really need to start including their costs in the quarterly report as simply saying how much they have produced is only half the story. If they havent reversed their cost trend then there is trouble at mill...... Happy to watch but agree that if they have lowered their costs this could be a gold mine
I couldnt see any costs in the recent report. Does anyone have an idea of cost per Oz for gold production? If they are sub 1,000 then this is a steal, if they are over then obviously it is going to be harder to see a return... I know that's pretty basic but it's pretty key - if they are making money at these gold prices, have some buffer to allow for a further drop, then this is a great entry point. If they are not, then they are heavily in debt, arent generating enough to pay it down or return anything to shareholders so it would be a punt on gold prices I think... But I dont know anything and have only read the most recent quarterly update, but was interested as it has dropped a lot based on no news.
Yup, me too - but didn't remove mine. Not a pleasant feeling to get over 50% of my holding dumped at around 1.2 or thereabouts. Can't decide whether to buy back in, or just take the hit. I'm gutted though. I think my plan will be to see if it drops below 1.5 and then start to buy back some. I think this could be trading around 4p by year end, but with the costs what they are I'd want to see the reductions kick in before I go for another ride. I've been in and out of this multiple times but with this latest debacle I need to hit that 4p just to beak even (unless I buy my 50% back!)
A poor quarter. It seems as though if the gold and nickel price can hold or rise slightly then everything should reverse back to where we were coming from. Cash and short term overdraft facilities are in place to cover for the next few months, and the bond should come through shortly. A bit nervous, but I'm not prepared to sell out at these levels. Just need either metal to rise, or either mine to reverse the recent declines for it to seem stable again. Comments welcome (hopefully from people far smarter than me who are able to see some light at the end of this very long tunnel....)
Before I explode. I'm not sure I can take another week of constant blackberry checking! At this rate they'll be combining it with an update on the Bond!
I will eat my hat (not for the first time with these guys) and then promptly sell a kidney, remortgage and have a garage sale to raise funds and plough Grannies savings into this. Having said that, I'd rather that we just released some sensible results, got good subscription to the bond, and drifted nicely up to the 4p mark by March. Now, is that really too much to ask?
When are we getting this bleedin ops update?! Sorry for stating the obvious in these posts - I dont normally post but enjoy the knowledge and banter that is on the BB here. I am just so bewildered at the lack of interest in the company from all angles. It really seems on the verge of some incredible progress. Short of a monumental gold collapse (again) to sub 800-900, and even greater collapse of Nickel, I just cant see where this can go except up. Having said that, I've thought it before a few times and been royally shafted. Sorry for the ramble... Just tired of waiting for the next quarter and then the next quarter for some bozo to cotton on to the fact that this is actually going to make money and not just dig holes and bury punters' cash in them like most AIM companies....
Cash costs were 1061 last quarter so we will have made between 100 and 200 per oz this quarter. Which means annualized 10m profit. Which is over 6m GBP profit. Which means a pe of less than 5 JUST FOR FREDA. Our 75% share of bnc is worth than our entire market cap. So WORST CASE, this is worth at least double the current price. And even then you get the copper, diamonds and ZK for free. Even if gold collapses to sub 1000 it's still worth much more than the current share price. Madness. I hope we just get a thumping div next year for the patience! Or a SP of 5p+ to keep us happy...
Tracy/wuffle, thanks for your posts. I dont come on here very much but read it alot and it has kept me going over the past few months! I dont know the mining industry well, but have read as much as I can and have been in here for a while now. To be honest, I was originally attracted by the gold side of the business, but as KM has stated on a few of his interviews they seem to move between being a gold mining to nickel mining company as the commodity prices change. I just think they have an excellent portfolio, a great blend of producing and exploration assets, and the market cap is so ridiculous that I cant stay away. Please do keep up your posts - they are so informative, and a breath of fresh air compared to the usual cack about where the share price will be in a month, or some such conjecture. I wish I knew more about the actual processes and so forth, but I',m happy to hold and watch the story unfold. It woudl be nice if I were holding with a nice profit, rather than holding with a nice loss though! I look at the general markets, and then the mining index and they are so off whack it cant continue - either we're in for an almighty general market crash, or a large correction on commodity pricing in general... Well maybe...
At 25 minutes into the audio presentation (link was provided by someone earlier - so thanks!) They mention that the costs of nickel are actually $8,500 - its the deal with Glencore that causes the $14k costs we see. This also explains (and is mentioned earlier in the presentation) why the costs are higher than last year - simply because last year the nickel price was lower so the impact was less to our total costs. It really will be a massive boost to profit when the smelter comes on line later next year - if only due to teh reduction to Glencore, but also transport etc. I wish I could get more at this price - it's absolutely daft that we dont even have a market cap the same as our share in BNC...
The value of MWA is still placed around 5million less than their share of BNC alone. They are profitable with FR. Diamonds is managable and they have copper and gold exploration that has high promise. It may not have hit all the short termer's expectations of huge profit, but considering a big drop in gold price it seems very comfortable to me. THe revenue has increased as expected which is good, the EBITA is good, and the profit after tax is healthy (even though it's less we'd hoped for). It is still around p/e of 5 with crap gold price. No matter how you look - revenues, assets, blah blah. It's still a screaming buy.... Just need to hold your nerve
Good for you. I jumped in when it was 5p... Bailed at 4p, came back in heavily around 1.5p, sold some at 3p and then nearly 4p and then.... Came back in too early.. I am in at around 2.5p, but I was just didn't want to be out when this finally starts being recognised. It's a compelling share, with a great story, good financials, brilliant growth prospects, so divers, cash flow positive, a fallen star from London markets etc.... And a good board on LSE, which is more than can be said for most on here. Best of luck to you. I have to admit, if I had spare cash I'd throw a few more quid here as well.
Big drops have basically lost all the gains we made in terms of cost savings etc (same with Gold). However, so long as we can show that we are turning decent profit even at these depressed levels I would hope for a correction upwards
I'd be surprised if we see sub 2p to be honest, but I'll be selling kidneys if we do.... This seems such a no brainer - my head tells me that this is a sure fire winner, my gut tells me that I've seen sure fire winners before......And they didn't work out. Fingers crossed on this so far, as I'm pretty much all in at present.. Good luck to all holding, and well don't to those that top sliced etc. I did, but bought back way too early (2.9p!) thinking I'd got bargain basement prices after selling at around 3.9p only a few weeks before.