Member Info for Richard08

Lots of buys so far… that drop to 116p at 8am was brief. See how it ends the day. I do think everything is priced in now and the market should move it back up in view of the expected revenue by year end. A divi cut has been more than priced in.

Yes they did. It will be interesting to see who buys today. Watch for RNSs over the next week updating us on who has topped up.

Hmm, difficult to know what the market will make of that. It’s not great but the market seems to have over anticipated that anyway. Company still making cash, it’s only a non-cash impairment so they were still able to pay debt. Have to wait for 8am for the usual irrational response to the RNS!

Relatively small trades visible on the free version I have for trades completed today. Sentiment has really soured. Given what they have already reported in the trading update things don’t seem that bad (famous last words I know!) and I think the recent drop can be attributed to negative sentiment which is all it can take on AIM along with only a small number of sales in the free float.

The only silver lining is that Mrs Bligh bought 20k worth of shares back in March when they were trading at 314p. (He bought 10k on the same day)

I hope she’s given her husband some right ear ache since that little purchase!

Just had another read through the last update on 4th July and this bit could be spooking the market:

“ As a result of the weaker outlook for the business, an assessment of potential non-cash impairment on intangible assets will be performed as part of the H1 close.”

It’s tucked away near the end but these kind of write-downs, while not taking ‘real money’ out of the business, still cause issues. And the size of the write down is probably dragging the sp down. That, and the delayed results. Ah well, we will know more by Wednesday.

Morning Laura 2022 & others,

Unfortunately the shares are being sold off in fear over the upcoming results on Wednesday this week. The CEO leaving and the uncertainty there is causing a problem. The recent trading update contained some negatives and left the door open for further bad news which may be clarified on Weds. They also pushed back the date for the results by a month which never goes down well. At best I think Weds will be a ‘marking-time’ update unless they have made some progress on appointing a new CEO. With rather thin profit margins there is also the fear that the dividend is in danger and a new CEO may cut this as part of any plan they choose to put in place but this is guess work on my part. However the Mcap is now at approx 190M and revenue should be north of 270M for the year so the company is sound enough, the recent sell off is prompted by fear and it is now oversold in my opinion. There is a lot of recurring revenue here and several solid long term contracts etc. Happy to discuss further if you wish.

You can probably tell I’m trying to reassure myself here as much as I am you!

I thought so, seems safer than some reits. Increase in number of homes and beds, occupancy up, NAV up… just need the sp to follow now!

Well that reads well unless I'm missing something? Most areas up, debt down and CEO seems to have his feet back under the table.

At the moment I think the value of the company is being dictated more by the current state of the market than anything else. The market is giving nothing the benefit of the doubt at the moment and recently profitable companies such as this one are being treated with suspicion. Until market sentiment improves TRX, and a lot of other companies, will be held back. Just my thoughts. But in the long term, this company is being steadily and professionally built upwards and the Mcap will eventually take care of itself if that continues.

You've got a good point there kebark. At least now TRX is ticking all the logical boxes. Quietly, efficiently, building a solid company.

Given the large waiting lists faced by the NHS this seems like a no-brainer money maker! Can’t wait for the next set of results to come through!

Well, having read it through a few times there are some silver linings. Record management is holding up, digital services expected to drop £5m due to a contract not rolling over and interest on debt going up to £9.6m which accounts for most of the drop in adjusted profit to £31m from £41m last year. Paper price going down is outside their control and they still expect revenue growth YoY.

Of course, all this remains to be seen. It’ll probably track sideways until a new CEO is appointed and economy recovers/interest rates fall. But, the overall business seems secure and the market has done its usual tantrum with the toys going out with the bath water. I would bottom-drawer it for a year and see what happens.

Thoughts anyone?

So, on the whole, things could be better! At least they still expect revenue growth but that’s the only silver lining in that lot! Batten down the hatches here for a bit I think!

It's really good to see that there is still considerable demand for the existing product - you wonder how many potential customers are willing/able to wait for Mistral rather than buy the current vs3.

Definitely lots to look forward to. Hold with patience for the long term I would suggest. Although at the moment, with a Mcap of 100M it would appear that lots of good news is already priced in. Not a deramp, merely an observation and warning of more volatility to come.

Low liquidity and a sudden surge in popularity seems to have moved it today. Have we got FOMO kicking in for IES? Up 17% on very little trading by 9am already!

The question is, are they done selling? In which case the downward pressure on the sp should diminish.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB5TuIKbG5k

Box markets gives another discussion here - positive about the company. IES is getting noticed.

Good to see the river fort loan repaid. I’m going to curse it now by saying the sp has bottomed out for good….

Must confess, didn’t see it getting this low. But with interest rates pushing higher it became inevitable I suppose. Hopefully this won’t be the thing that breaks as interest rates go higher!

Thanks both. I am still fairly new to this and hadn’t considered the broader implications. In that case it would seem like a good time to buy more and hold until the situation recovers as there is no business risk.