PFD thoughts21 May 2021 11:08
Premier Positives
- Focus on brands with higher margins (moving away from non branded cakes)
- More low sugar, healthy eating variants
- Investment in brands through TV advertising etc
- Debt being paid down and lower rate loans secured
- Pension restructuring.
- Growth in International sales and use of Local Managers and distributors who know the market
- Dividend restarted after 13 years..
However Risk and Unknown
- Elephant in room = How far will sales fall when people return to work / start socialising again going to restaurants / cafes?
- Inflationary risks to raw materials, labour costs etc.
- Can brands become fashionable again? (were regarded as very dated until people had to eat at home again in pandemic)
- Healthy eating and obesity- In a post covid world, will UK Gov regulation get tighter on sugar laden products?
There's many who believe PFD have had a "one off" bumper year with supernormal profits that won't be repeated again, once CV19 disappears. Hence the shares are still being shorted and the share price fading after the results...
I'm a believer in the turnaround story and recent success. However suspect the share price may fall back to low 90s and the 1p dividend although a start, but not enough to prop it up significantly.