RE: Results12 Apr 2016 12:28
Hello GFD
Worth noting that the results are unaudited so it is the BOD that has decided not to issue a going concern statement. Solvency and cash are two different issues... solvency being based on the NAV, cash being 'can you pay your bills'. I don't think the company is trading whilst insolvent (presumably it could sell itself and cover its liabilities), but I don't believe the company has enough cash to help deliver on any potential contracts and indeed it is running out. The market reaction appears to have cooled towards the end of the morning now. But let's not get hung up on hour-by-hour sp fluctuations!
Two things I took from a bear perspective from today were 1) increased debt despite a pay off of HSBC debt with the three million convertible loan; and 2) only 2 million in the bank. There is a world of difference between accruing £8m revenue and turning that into cold hard cash. I have a low opinion of 'adjusted' EBITDA as a measure of profitability.
I haven't seen anything to convince me to close out my short position today. I think an update on cash in the next trading update (early May?) should give guidance.
Regarding RZ - I don't think matters have settled shall we say amicably, interesting not from the RNS:
"During 2015, Paul Foulger, Tito Bacarese-Hamilton, Doris-Ann Williams, and David Toohey all left the board. We thank them for their service. Sadly, Kevin Wilson who gave loyal service to the Group, passed away in November after a short illness, and I offer my condolences to his family. In addition, we announced yesterday the resignation of Ron Zwanziger as a non-executive director. The Board has also been informed that Lurene Joseph is not seeking re-election at the AGM and accordingly will step down from the Board at this time. I would like to thank Lurene for her work on the Board and in particular as part of the Audit Committee."
I can't help but noticed that everyone is thanked apart from RZ, his departure is factually stated. If he wants out, then there will be significant overhang on the stock for sometime. The SP will let us know if someone is exiting in the coming days.
Thanks for your thoughts,
R