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Bowing somewhat to public pressure, but also aware that I'm on holiday for 3 weeks over the summer during which time I'm unlikely to look in regularly, I've decided to close the sweepstake at the end of June, so Saturday 30th June will be the final date for sweepstake guesses. I will post the rules and guesses so far in the next 2 posts. Rev.
WW 'When were the earliest guesses made? Months ago. This sweepstake should be closed now (if not before any buoy or AM updates were given). If it continues much longer it’ll be like asking who do you think going to win the open as the leader by 3 shots walks onto the 18th tee on the 72nd hole at Carnoustie.' The earliest guess was mine on 11th December 2017. I know it was that date as I put down my guess as exactly 12 months after opening the sweepstake. I'm not an oilman (as you probably already know) but I'm guessing that even if you knew the exact date when the AM were to leave drydocks you might be able to estimate the earliest FOIL could be achieved, but that's a long way away from knowing the exact date (as both the BOD and brokers show with their varying expectations of when FOIL will happen). I haven't kept datestamps of when guesses have come in but I have noticed that up until quite recently the variance of guesses has continued to be quite wide. That said I notice that the 2 most recent guesses are almost identical to my guess 6 months ago. Take from that what you will! Rev.
Sorry, that should have been 'your', not 'you're'. Just my personal bugbear but I hate it when people don't follow the rules of grammar!
DSPP if you're watching I'm sure plenty on here would be interested to know what you're date for the FOIL sweepstake would be. Rules and dates so far are below. Sweepstake closes when the AM leaves port.
Rules of the sweepstake; 1. State a date you believe FOIL will be achieved and a charity you’d like your winnings to go to. 2. Only 1 date per person 3. When FOIL happens donate £5 to the charity of the winning date. HappyToLearn 28th August. 2018 - NSPCC. SIPPn00b: 8th September 2018 - Crisis InJamesWeTrust: 11 Sept 2018 - Children in Need. DiveCentre: 28.09.18 - Parkinsons UK Sonofthebull: 30th September 2018 Charity is Cystic Fibrosis NigWit: Monday 1 October 2018 - The NSPCC GreenMachine67: 5th Oct 2018 - Freeman's Transplant unit Newcastle. Shedful: 12th October 2018 - Deaf children charity Themarl: 14th october 2018 - RNLI. Apachewind 15th October 2018 - Help for Heroes Dubliner: 18th Oct 2018 - Hope House Genghis15: 21 October - Macmillan cancer care WellWell: October the 23rd -2018 - NAS WizzardTaffy: 24th October, 2018 - Children in Need Robbie68: 27th October 2018 - Thames Valley Air Ambulance Emilyt16: . October 29th 2018 - Bowel Cancer uk WessexMario: 30 October 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support ENTANGLED November 2 2018 - RNLI SpruceGoose2: 5th November 2018 - 'Smile with Siddy'. PiJoe: nov 6th 2018 - ..children in need Extrader: 7th November 2018-: LOROS. Gritstone: 11th November 2018 - MacMillan Cancer Support CherryVale: 12 November 2018.- 'Help for heroes' WolfonFire: 15th November 2018 - Brain Tumour Trust Which way now 20 Nov. RAF Benevolent Fund. Olaf: 23rd November 2018 . Scotland's Charity Air Ambulance . Biffadog: 26th November 2018. - MacMillan Cancer Support. Mallye 4th December 2018 - Medicines Sans Frontiers DickyH: 5th December 18 -. Great North Air Ambulance. Jackdaniels 6.12.2018 - RNLI Mikemine 7th December 2018 - Kent Air Ambulance DaveWin 8th December 2018 Parents Against Grooming Reverandy: 11th December 2018 -: Martin House Hospice YuYus: 12th December 2018 - Maxis Mates Dog Rescue AndyMax 14th December 2018 - Yorkshire Air Ambulance MrToad 15 Dec 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support. Pickswinger 18th December 2018 - St Gemma's Hospice (Leeds) PapaJoe 19 December 2018 - Mind Scaley499 20 Dec 2018 - Poppy Scotland CEBO456: 22 Dec 2018- RBL Mikjj0 28th Dec 18 - Sands
Leftitlate 4th Jan 2019, - 'give a duck'. PrinceofDarkness Jan 6th 2019 - Mind Mil62: 9th January 2019 - Charity Meningitis Association Scotland Rangers1: 14 January 2019.- MFR (Moray Firth Radio) Cash for Kids. FoamingPig 15 January 2019 - Panthera www.panthera.org MissDosh: 19/1/19 - Heads up Charity.. MrJimV 24th Jan 2019 - RNLI PeteTheStreet: 31/1/19 – Children’s Hospice South West. BellNippleBear: 1st February - Phil32 3rd February 2019 -. Starlight Children’s foundation Escargot: Feb 14th 2019..- Samaritans McSpaff 20th Feb 2019,- Nottingham and Lincolnshire air ambulance AdoubleUK: 31st March 2019 - Mendip Cave Rescue Organisation. NorthCBubble: April 1st 2019 - Yorkshire air ambulance ChiselHurst 18th April 2019 - RNLI Soolsker: 18th May 2019 - RNLI
FOIL sweepstake Rules of the sweepstake; 1. State a date you believe FOIL will be achieved and a charity you�d like your winnings to go to. 2. Only 1 date per person 3. When FOIL happens donate �5 to the charity of the winning date. HappyToLearn 28th August. 2018 - NSPCC. SIPPn00b: Friday 8th September 2018 � Crisis InJamesWeTrust: 11 Sept 2018 - Children in Need. DiveCentre: 28.09.18 - Parkinsons UK Sonofthebull: 30th September 2018 Charity is Cystic Fibrosis NigWit: Monday 1 October 2018 - The NSPCC GreenMachine67: 5th Oct 2018 - Freeman's Transplant unit Newcastle. Shedful: 12th October 2018 - Deaf children charity Apachewind 15th October 2018 � Help for Heroes Dubliner: 18th Oct 2018 - Hope House Genghis15: 21 October - Macmillan cancer care WellWell: October the 23rd -2018 - NAS WizzardTaffy: 24th October, 2018 - Children in Need Robbie68: 27th October 2018 - Thames Valley Air Ambulance Emilyt16: .October 29th 2018 - Bowel Cancer uk WessexMario: 30 October 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support SpruceGoose2: 5th November 2018 - 'Smile with Siddy'. PiJoe: nov 6th 2018 - ..children in need Extrader: 7th November 2018-: LOROS. Gritstone: 11th November 2018 - MacMillan Cancer Support CherryVale: 12 November 2018.- 'Help for heroes' WolfonFire: 15th November 2018 - Brain Tumour Trust Which way now 20 Nov. RAF Benevolent Fund. Olaf: 23rd November 2018 . Scotland's Charity Air Ambulance . Biffadog: Monday 26th November 2018. - MacMillan Cancer Support. Mallye 4th December 2018 � Medicines Sans Frontiers DickyH: 5th December 18 -. Great North Air Ambulance. Jackdaniels 6.12.2018 - RNLI Mikemine 7th December 2018 � Kent Air Ambulance DaveWin 8th December 2018 Parents Against Grooming Reverandy: 11th December 2018 -: Martin House Hospice YuYus: 12th December 2018 - ? AndyMax 14th December 2018 - Yorkshire Air Ambulance MrToad 15 Dec 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support. Pickswinger 18th December 2018 - St Gemma's Hospice (Leeds) PapaJoe 19 December for FOIL charity is Mind Scaley499 20 Dec 2018 - Poppy Scotland CEBO456: 22 Dec 2018 � RBL Mikjj0 28th Dec 18 � Sands
Leftitlate 4th Jan 2019, - 'give a duck'. PrinceofDarkness Jan 6th 2019 - Mind Mil62: 9th January 2019 - Charity Meningitis Association Scotland Rangers1: 14 January 2019.- MFR (Moray Firth Radio) Cash for Kids. FoamingPig 15 January 2019 - Panthera www.panthera.org MissDosh: 19/1/19 - Heads up Charity.. MrJimV 24th Jan 2019 - RNLI PeteTheStreet: 31/1/19 - Children�s Hospice South West. BellNippleBear: 1st February - Phil32 3rd February 2019 -. Starlight Children�s foundation Escargot: Feb 14th 2019..- Samaritans McSpaff 20th Feb 2019,- Nottingham and Lincolnshire air ambulance AdoubleUK: 31st March 2019 � Mendip Cave Rescue Organisation. NorthCBubble: April 1st 2019 - Yorkshire air ambulance ChiselHurst 18th April 2019 - RNLI Soolsker: 18th May 2019 � RNLI
IJWT, WW and others. Thank you for your comprehensive reporting on the AGM. I trust you had a good time down the pub post-AGM. Perhaps one year I'll get to make it. I'll post the present FOIL sweepstake numbers over the next couple of posts (it's become too big for one post so for ease I'll push the 2019 dates to a second post). I note a few new names cropping up. It'll be interesting to note what dates are chosen now that we're getting closer to the pointy end of the game. Rev.
Afraid I can't be at the AGM, day job precludes it, but if someone could take brief notes and write them up here I (and I imagine many others) would very much appreciate it. Rev.
YuYus, really sorry but I'm keeping you at 12th December as otherwise there's the chance that everyone will want to change their date and that would be mayhem. I seem to remember I allowed one person to change date because 2 people chose the same date at the same time and so one of them had to move, but that was exceptional circumstances. Also, YuYus and BellNippleBear, neither of you have chosen a charity. Obviously you don't have to choose one if you don't want to, or you can nominate a charity if you win, but it makes it easier if you nominate a charity now. Finally, just to remind anyone who hasn't yet put a date down, I'm closing the sweepstake on the date the AM leaves port (I may then open a sweepstake on what the sp will be at FOIL, but that's for another day) Rev.
Updated sweepstake; Rules of the sweepstake; 1. State a date you believe FOIL will be achieved and a charity you�d like your winnings to go to. 2. Only 1 date per person 3. When FOIL happens donate �5 to the charity of the winning date. HappyToLearn 28th August. 2018 - NSPCC. SIPPn00b: Friday 8th September 2018 � Crisis InJamesWeTrust: 11 Sept 2018 - Children in Need. DiveCentre: 28.09.18 - Parkinsons UK Sonofthebull: 30th September 2018 Charity is Cystic Fibrosis NigWit: Monday 1 October 2018 - The NSPCC GreenMachine67: 5th Oct 2018 - Freeman's Transplant unit Newcastle. Shedful: 12th October 2018 - Deaf children charity Apachewind 15th October 2018 � Help for Heroes Genghis15: 21 October - Macmillan cancer care WellWell: October the 23rd -2018 - NAS WizzardTaffy: 24th October, 2018 - Children in Need Robbie68: 27th October 2018 - Thames Valley Air Ambulance Emilyt16: .October 29th 2018 - Bowel Cancer uk WessexMario: 30 October 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support SpruceGoose2: 5th November 2018 - 'Smile with Siddy'. PiJoe: nov 6th 2018 - ..children in need Extrader: 7th November 2018-: LOROS. Gritstone: 11th November 2018 - MacMillan Cancer Support CherryVale: 12 November 2018.- 'Help for heroes' WolfonFire: 15th November 2018 - Brain Tumour Trust Which way now 20 Nov. RAF Benevolent Fund. Biffadog: Monday 26th November 2018. - MacMillan Cancer Support. Mallye 4th December 2018 � Medicines Sans Frontiers DickyH: 5th December 18 -. Great North Air Ambulance. Jackdaniels 6.12.2018 - RNLI Mikemine 7th December 2018 � Kent Air Ambulance DaveWin 8th December 2018 Parents Against Grooming Reverandy: 11th December 2018 -: Martin House Hospice YuYus: 12th December 2018 - ? AndyMax 14th December 2018 - Yorkshire Air Ambulance MrToad 15 Dec 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support. Pickswinger 18th December 2018 - St Gemma's Hospice (Leeds) PapaJoe 19 December for FOIL charity is Mind Scaley499 20 Dec 2018 - Poppy Scotland CEBO456: 22 Dec 2018 � RBL Mikjj0 28th Dec 18 � Sands Leftitlate 4th Jan 2019, - 'give a duck'. PrinceofDarkness Jan 6th 2019 - Mind Mil62: 9th January 2019 - Charity Meningitis Association Scotland Rangers1: 14 January 2019.- MFR (Moray Firth Radio) Cash for Kids. FoamingPig 15 January 2019 - Panthera www.panthera.org MissDosh: 19/1/19 - Heads up Charity.. MrJimV 24th Jan 2019 - RNLI PeteTheStreet: 31/1/19 - Children�s Hospice South West. BellNippleBear: 1st February - Phil32 3rd February 2019 -. Starlight Children�s foundation Escargot: Feb 14th 2019..- Samaritans McSpaff 20th Feb 2019,- Nottingham and Lincolnshire air ambulance AdoubleUK: 31st March 2019 � Mendip Cave Rescue Organisation. NorthCBubble: April 1st 2019 - Yorkshire air ambulance ChiselHurst 18th April 2019 - RNLI Sool
I would second SIPPs comments. What I love about this BB is the way different posters bring different perspectives, whether that be in the oil industry, financing or missdosh signposting to interesting articles. Boyzee, please, keep posting on TA stuff and ignore the detractors. Rev.
Just noticed Soolsker's date got missed off. Sorry, it should finish; Soolsker: 18th May 2019 � RNLI
With the latest milestone past here's another chance for newcomers to join the foil sweepstake. I will close the sweepstake once AM leaves drydock. Rev. Rules of the sweepstake; 1. State a date you believe FOIL will be achieved and a charity you�d like your winnings to go to. 2. Only 1 date per person 3. When FOIL happens donate �5 to the charity of the winning date. HappyToLearn 28th August. 2018 - NSPCC. SippNoob: Friday 8th September 2018 � Crisis InJamesWeTrust: 11 Sept 2018 - Children in Need. DiveCentre: 28.09.18 - Parkinsons UK Sonofthebull: 30th September 2018 Charity is Cystic Fibrosis NigWit: Monday 1 October 2018 - The NSPCC GreenMachine67: 5th Oct 2018 - Freeman's Transplant unit Newcastle. Shedful: 12th October 2018 - Deaf children charity Apachewind 15th October 2018 � Help for Heroes WellWell: October the 23rd -2018 - NAS WizzardTaffy: 24th October, 2018 - Children in Need Robbie68: 27th October 2018 - Thames Valley Air Ambulance Emilyt16: .October 29th 2018 - Bowel Cancer uk WessexMario: 30 October 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support SpruceGoose2: 5th November 2018 - 'Smile with Siddy'. PiJoe: nov 6th 2018 - ..children in need Extrader: 7th November 2018-: LOROS. Gritstone: 11th November 2018 - MacMillan Cancer Support CherryVale: 12 November 2018.- 'Help for heroes' WolfonFire: 15th November 2018 - Brain Tumour Trust Which way now 20 Nov. RAF Benevolent Fund. Biffadog: Monday 26th November 2018. - MacMillan Cancer Support. DickyH: 5th December 18 -. Great North Air Ambulance. Jackdaniels 6.12.2018 - RNLI Mikemine 7th December 2018 � Kent Air Ambulance DaveWin 8th December 2018 Parents Against Grooming Reverandy: 11th December 2018 -: Martin House Hospice YuYus: 12th December 2018 - ? AndyMax 14th December 2018 - Yorkshire Air Ambulance MrToad 15 Dec 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support. Pickswinger 18th December 2018 - St Gemma's Hospice (Leeds) PapaJoe 19 December for FOIL charity is Mind Scaley499 20 Dec 2018 - Poppy Scotland CEBO456: 22 Dec 2018 � RBL Mikjj0 28th Dec 18 � Sands Leftitlate 4th Jan 2019, - 'give a duck'. PrinceofDarkness Jan 6th 2019 - Mind Mil62: 9th January 2019 - Charity Meningitis Association Scotland Rangers1: 14 January 2019.- MFR (Moray Firth Radio) Cash for Kids. FoamingPig 15 January 2019 - Panthera www.panthera.org MissDosh: 19/1/19 - Heads up Charity.. MrJimV 24th Jan 2019 - RNLI PeteTheStreet: 31/1/19 - Children�s Hospice South West. Phil32 3rd February 2019 -. Starlight Children�s foundation Escargot: Feb 14th 2019..- Samaritans McSpaff 20th Feb 2019,- Nottingham and Lincolnshire air ambulance AdoubleUK: 31st March 2019 � Mendip Cave Rescue Organisation. NorthCBubble: April 1st 2019 - Yorkshire air ambulance ChiselHurst 18th April 2019 - RNLI Soolsker: 1
WW. Thanks for that reply. It makes a lot of sense and makes clear to me that I need to see RF of 22% as the basis for my valuation of HUR's assets, which are still considerable, but not in the 8 billion barrels range that have sometimes been bandied around.
WW: 'I think in summary yes 44% could be achieved potentially but we won't know for a considerable length of time.' Honest question from an ignoramus to someone who has clearly more expertise than me in this area: What would it take to show that we can get an RF of say 44% and, in your opinion, how long is it likely to be before the company can prove it? For me this is an important question as at present we have 2C/2P resources/reserves of 2.6 billion with a potential of another 0.9 billion in Warwick. That's fine and good and should increase the SP considerably, but if it's going to take 10 years to increase the RF from 20%ish to 40%ish then my exit strategy will be different to if it'll take 2 years.
PiJoe: (are your sunday surmmons equally condensed to the salient points? LOL) Actually yes they are. People tend to start snoring if I go over 15 minutes. If you can't say it in less than 20 minutes then don't bother saying it is my motto. Rev.
Cebo, the man upstairs gives people a second chance, but rules is rules and we're going for a one guess per person rule. Sipp, I agree that anyone putting a date in today will have a better idea of FOIL than we would have had back in December, and since I chose first I had the least idea of all (and not just because I was first), but then again future people can't choose 11th December because I got that one. As for when the sweepstake closes I will close it when the AM leaves drydock as I figure once that milestone is reached it will be relatively easy to work out a narrow window within which FOIL is likely to happen. On another topic - exit strategy - surely understanding the company's exit strategy will have a bearing on our exit strategy. I figure there's basically 4 options; 1. sell the whole thing in one fell swoop/get bought out as a company (unlikely given the resources we have but nevertheless a possibility). 2. Farm out to a major/majors for 50% oil at full carry and then sell off the rest piecemeal to funds/other majors until it's all gone. 3. Same as 2 but keep some or all of the 50% back for ongoing income. 4. Go it alone (a la DSPP). I see 4. as something we would only do if the first 3 don't come to pass/ in order to encourage an offer and I don't see 1 as likely, or if it is likely then will come like a bolt out of the blue so we can't plan for it. This leaves 2. and 3. The initial farm out could happen relatively soon after FOIL once we've proven the deliverability of oil (6 months?), but in order to fully gain true value when selling the rest we'll presumably need to have longer on the EPS and/or more drilling, which will take some time, perhaps as long as 2 years after FOIL (I say this as a non-oil expert, so am happy to be contradicted by someone who actually knows what they're talking about). If this is the case then my exit strategy is to wait until the company has shown a better RF than the CPR gave it and then see what they can get for the oil they have proven is recoverable. In other words, in for the long haul. Regards to all. Rev.
I'm suspecting this no-news major upswing presages some incoming milestone news towards FOIL so I thought I'd invite any newcomers (or oldcomers yet to put their guesses down) to join the sweepstake. Rules and present guesses below; Rules of the sweepstake; 1. State a date you believe FOIL will be achieved and a charity you�d like your winnings to go to. 2. Only 1 date per person 3. When FOIL happens donate �5 to the charity of the winning date. HappyToLearn 28th August. NSPCC. SippNoob: Friday 8th September 2018 � Crisis InJamesWeTrust: 11 Sept 2018 - Children in Need. DiveCentre: 28.09.18 - Parkinsons UK Sonofthebull: 30th September 2018 Charity is Cystic Fibrosis NigWit: Monday 1 October 2018 - The NSPCC GreenMachine67: 5th Oct 2018 - Freeman's Transplant unit Newcastle. Shedful: 12th October 2018 - Deaf children charity Apachewind 15th October 2018 � Help for Heroes WellWell: October the 23rd -2018 - NAS WizzardTaffy: 24th October, 2018 - Children in Need Robbie68: 27th October 2018 - Thames Valley Air Ambulance Emilyt16: .October 29th 2018 - Bowel Cancer uk WessexMario: 30 October 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support SpruceGoose2: 5th November 2018 - 'Smile with Siddy'. PiJoe: nov 6th 2018 - ..children in need Extrader: 7th November 2018-: LOROS. Gritstone: 11th November 2018 - MacMillan Cancer Support CherryVale: 12 November 2018.- 'Help for heroes' WolfonFire: 15th November 2018 - Brain Tumour Trust Which way now 20 Nov. RAF Benevolent Fund. Biffadog: Monday 26th November 2018. - MacMillan Cancer Support. DickyH: 5th December 18 -. Great North Air Ambulance. Jackdaniels 6.12.2018 - RNLI Mikemine 7th December 2018 � Kent Air Ambulance DaveWin 8th December 2018 Parents Against Grooming Reverandy: 11th December 2018 -: Martin House Hospice YuYus: 12th December 2018 - ? MrToad 15 Dec 2018 - Macmillan Cancer Support. Pickswinger 18th December 2018 - St Gemma's Hospice (Leeds) PapaJoe 19 December for FOIL charity is Mind Scaley499 20 Dec 2018 - Poppy Scotland CEBO456: 22 Dec 2018 � RBL Mikjj0 28th Dec 18 � Sands Leftitlate 4th Jan 2019, - 'give a duck'. PrinceofDarkness Jan 6th 2019 - Mind Mil62: 9th January 2019 - Charity Meningitis Association Scotland Rangers1: 14 January 2019.- MFR (Moray Firth Radio) Cash for Kids. FoamingPig 15 January 2019 - Panthera www.panthera.org MissDosh: 19/1/19 - Heads up Charity.. PeteTheStreet: 31/1/19 - Children�s Hospice South West. Phil32 3rd February 2019 -. Starlight Children�s foundation Escargot: Feb 14th 2019..- Samaritans McSpaff 20th Feb 2019,- Nottingham and Lincolnshire air ambulance AdoubleUK: 31st March 2019 � Mendip Cave Rescue Organisation. NorthCBubble: April 1st 2019 - Yorkshire air ambulance ChiselHurst 18th April 2019 - RNLI Soolsker: 18th May 2019 ʏ