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The share price over the rest of this year is wholly dependent on Kouroussa production. When we were promised 30k oz in H2 '23 the sp rose to almost 20p, when we actually got 4k oz it dropped below 8p and down to 5.7p when production halted altogether. The latest update says that the new operations team is getting 700 oz p.w out of the ground .. that barely covers the reduction at Yanfolila. But if they can honestly report April production 3k ; May 5k ; June 6-7k so that there is a realistic chance of 40-50k oz in H2 then I believe the sp could treble from here ... but I don't feel any institutional investor is going to pour money in here on projections given how useless Betts guidance has been over the past 2-3yrs. If Betts wants to rebuild some trust in his competency then he needs to provide actual production figures for the prior month in the first week of each new month for the rest of this year ... and they better be growing steadily at Kourroussa !
Davey - I agree with you to some extent and I am an ACA. Cost of Sales of only $200k on $5m revenue is very suspect ... does this specialised equipment really cost them next to nothing to make ? The huge increases in Trade Receivables and Payables are also ridiculous in proportion to the Revenue ... but I do think this can be explained by some bizarre accounting.
In the notes they refer to the "agreement with SLB was expanded in December 2023 for a cash consideration payable to Plexus of US$5.2m to enable SLB to use certain POS-GRIP technology on a worldwide basis" My gut tells me they have included this $5.2m as both trade receivable and payable ... remove this figure from both sides of the Balance Sheet and you have a more sensible picture ... of a growing and profitable small company !!! I joined in six months ago at 20p so am underwater, but feel there is a positive story to tell and continued contract wins are the key
Bald Eagle - my whole point is that they issue new shares to enable such a transaction to happen.
Right now somebody trying to buy 10k shares would probably move the market, 50k would definitely, so 1mm shares would see price rise rapidly. I believe a small to mid sized fund manager would be prepared to pay £30m for 12mm shares and a 30% stake in a miner with every prospect of reaching 100k oz within 2-3yrs. At that point this could be a $200m+ revenue producer with $50m+ net profit ...Mkt Cap rises from £100m to £200m and the new investor as well as Assaubayev's and us have all doubled our money to £5 per share and we're still only on a p/e of 5 !
Knco / Tintin - we've so missed your ramping !
Their is only one way that a cornerstone investor is going "come in above 3p" ... and that if two investors each take 29.9% of the company for around £2.5m each on condotion that their representatives get the CEO & Chairman roles, plus one other BoD member of their choice, plus one NED each, such that every future decision for this company will be made by them and ratified by their Board appointees. DC gets given a nominal 'consulting' salary to swan around the globe with the missus doing little of value and saying even less. In due course they hope the company gets valued at £10m (of which they own 60%) and they make it grow at 20% per annum, through their efforts. I'd say the chances of a couple of competent business managers seeing this as a worthwhile investment, even on those terms, is less than 10% ... but let's all dream on !
I really cannot understand Assaubayev's motives right now but their oversized holding is certainly negatively impacting on the value of this company. I think they should offer to list 12m new shares at £2.50. That would still leave them with 50% of the enlarged capital, but would give a new investor 30%. It would also enable them to pay-off almost all of the long term debt saving £5m annually in interest expense. Market would almost certainly re-rate to that new price instantly. 40m shares, £100m mkt cap - still a p/e of 6 on current production with lower financing costs. Assaubayev holding valued at £50m instead of under £25m (which is about their av cost) and much more liquidity in the shares, since either they or the new investor could sell for a profit if they choose
CARD Mkt Cap still only £370m ; MOON (even with sp down to 150p) at £520m. CARD has to at some point pass MOON if there is any concept of 'rational markets theorem' left in the financial industry. Further 30% rise from here and we might need to start thinking about fair value ... but only if this wasn't a growing company. Add in the targetted 10% per annum growth for the next few years and we really should be well north of 150p
There should be no real surprises with the actual FY results : Revenue £500m plus ; PaT around £50m. CBILS & Tranche 'A' debt repaid but not able to pay a final dividend for FY24. What I really do want to have in the 30th April announcement is something very clear about dividend in FY25 ... ideally I'd like them to announce a 'special' div in May to recognise the 'patience' shareholders have shown in the company through COVID etc and that interim and final divs will going forward be announced in Sept & Apr with the stated desire to exceed 2019 dividend very soon
I think the headline "as much as 13%" lower prices in the retail article is quite misleading. I have a great deal of confidence in the SHOE mgmt to get this pricing right ahead of the key 'new school year' season. They're only reducing 3-5% on kids shoes ... who cares about ladies slippers ! I believe they have assessed the need to sell stock already produced and delivered rather than leave it unsold. With low priced items this can be a gamble but I strongly believe they understand their business better than the analysts and we should see a reversion to 250p later in the year
£20 has been a target for years and with all of the share buybacks really should have been reached a long time ago. However a new dynamic adding $50m to annual revenue is the $2bn+ of customer deposits on which PLUS can earn 2% margin easily like any other 'bank'. With interest rates likely to stay above 4% for the foreseeble future and not return to the COVID induced 'la-la-land' that's a very healthy extra income that should add about 200p to the share price by itself
Sadly also down 95% ; but just sold to get a couple of grand back rather than nothing
Company currently worth £1m and RNS states they intend to raise £9m when private, so existing shareholders will only hold 10% of new company. This has proven yet another example of BoD and insiders being able to destroy genuine small shareholders when on the cusp of improved outlook. Valuable lessons learnt the hard way again about how corrupt the stock market is
But that will be .... 90% it's barely
My message cut off for some reason
but that will be less than 10p per share with enlarged capital. With a loss of 90% it's barely worth selling out now, might as well see if the 'cornerstone' investor can make something back. At 0.9p this might be worth a punt, but DC droll presentation hardly inspired confidence
So much has changed since 2019 when I first invested at 57p ! ... but I think it's worth giving new(er) private investors a bit of context. Back then there were approx 60m shares in issue and the mkt cap was around £30m. Bricklive was in a significant growth period, with 60+ annual shows / exhibits. I saw a potential for £2-3m net profit, a p/e of 10 and double digit growth.
How wrong this all proved. DC embarked on a series of frivolous side ventures and the rest is history. Could this return to a £30m MC company ... well hopefully yes - but that will be 90% it's barely worth cutting losses
Only comfort I get when I compare CARD to MOON is that over the past 3yrs the respective share prices have moved as follows : Card 70 -> 50 -> 90 -> 90 ; Moon 420 -> 225 -> 100 -> 160 ... so CARD gained 30% ; MOON down 60%
However that convergence I have long been hoping for, and which was close to occurring this time last year has sadly not materialised ... yet ! Everything about the past three year's trading performance tells me CARD should be 150p and MOON 125p ... so why don't the "efficient" markets recognise this ?
Knco : "so love him or loathe him , these are facts" ... according to this latest RNS apparently all the time that we have previously been told, that DC was 'lending' money to LVCG he has instead been borrowing money at 20% interest. Now he is moving that personal liability to us LVCG shareholders - quite a brilliant ploy. Since we haven't seen any proper financials for 2023 we are clueless what real liabilities exist, but I'm going to guess we still have around $5m owed ... mostly to DC at 20% ... so we need to make $1m to cover his personal liabilities. We know nothing about the new arrangement for Bricklive, other than this potential cash cow has been 'outsourced' to the original managers and we now only get some 'fee'
I'd love to see some turnaround on this stock - it's cost me a fortune believing it was being run as a listed business not a personal slush fund - but it's not me that has poisoned this company, DC can take full credit for that !
Thereshegoes - you ask "Why would David issue a convertible loan at a PREMIUM of 50% of the suspended price and THREE times the small placing price? " ... I can give you a very simple answer 20% per annum interest on the loan !!!!
I would have converted my entire pension fund into LVCG Convertibles, if I was going to get 20% guaranteed !
I'm still amazed that several posters on this BB still state they receive insider information from DC ...
... knco/tintin - I'm utterly convinced that DC has assured you that the sp will rise to 10p very, very soon - what he neglected to tell you was this would be accomplished by a 20:1 stock consolidation ! Atleast we have something left we can trade
Movement does seem overdone to me. Did think the rise above 250p wasn't really justified (wish I had top-sliced a bit more) We're almost through H1 so the BoD will have a good idea where the numbers stand ... but the bulk of revenue and profit comes in H2 with the Summer "school shoes" buying season. Last year H1 Rev 75m PaT 2m ; H2 Rev 90m PaT 11m. If H1 is only marginally down on expectations then it might be merely a repeat of last year and no growth. I think 150m revenue and 10m profit would still justify a 240-250p price, especially with a solid dividend
Spike - i agree this is a gamble because Assaubayevs own 70% ... but they have obviously been given some dispensation to hold that much without making a takeover bid ... and it doesn't seem as though they're trying to screw us small PIs.
From past calculations I think their av purchase price is around 250p so they have a vested interest to get the price back up to that level ... which I think is much closer to fair value. When 2023 results do get published it will be apparent that the past 3 years NET profits are equal to twice the current mkt cap ... and the future output is increasing and gold price rising.
Just need some Sunday paper to recommend ALTYN and a few dozen punters to look to buy 10k shares and the price would rise rapidly
Kenj "It seems very clear to me that this deal has failed. Surely even the Patel's can't be that thick that they cannot see this too. Expect the deal to be pulled by the end of this week." That might be a logical reaction in a well functioning market, but we're talking about stock trading where all sorts of nefarious insider deals are possible. Whose to say the Patels haven't gone to one or two of the new buyers (@>13.5p) and said, help us get this over the line and we'll let you buy up X % of the entire share capital at 13.65p ... then share in the spoils with us when this company realises it's true value !
I used to be a daily reader / watcher of this stock as I have lost about £50k by continually averaging down, believing the business was fundamentally sound. But I've come to realise that DC is a crook pure and simple using this as his lifestyle fund. He's not really putting millions in, he's merely looking at ways in which he can continue to fund his 1/2 million annual lifestyle extractions. That said, I felt hype could get me out of my hole, if the sp could just bounce from 2p back to 4p !
But the Tintin/Knco nonsense has always been just that ... is there anybody on this forum who actually believes DC would be giving daily 'insider dealing' insights to this clown ? I hope some miracle will happen and we relist - but really I'm now checking in about once a week, just to see if we have been put out of misery and the winding up is final
Similar position , first bought in 2016 ... need about 15p to get back into profit.
DOM gives us some indication what is possible here. A net profit margin of 10% is perfectly achievable, so on 50m revenue, profit of 5m and p/e of 15 would make current mkt cap reasonable. But DOM has achieved revenue of 600m+ so growth of the Polish market to something like 200m should be possible ... and thus mkt cap of 250m not at all implausible over a 3-5yr horizon if growth continues