Member Info for Retireby40

I believe you’ll be riding rainbows before that happens! Keep it at least slightly plausible in the foreseeable. It’d be nice to be at 1p which would be £170m market cap. If we’re Producing 1,000bopd by YE and with YA sorted I expect to be 1p+. It’s been a long time coming!

Advfn - Exxon also happened to be in Georgia when ud-2 was being stimulated. Too much of a coincidence for me. Zaza also said as the third point in the podcast, albeit briefly, we also have very good gas potential which we are currently testing. I think Clean up has taken place so they’re collecting data before releasing interim flow is my guess. If it’s 1mmcfpd (we want 3) or so although it’s not great it still proves it’s extractable and if stable at 1mmcfpd majors will be licking their lips at the thought of drilling their own wells which would yield much better results from an old Soviet one. Hopefully proof of concept. It’s been priced as a failure so only upside on the gas.

Did WH Ireland publish a note as promised (30 day forecast)?

Canny, my understanding is the wells have been paid for (aside from Nico yet to be re-entered) so each $80 or so barrel goes into the coffers to pay off YA (surely this can be done monthly again) and contribute to Nico. Zaza said they’d reduced monthly costs and all the cash (aside from YJ, WH Ireland, non-execs) is going into the ground. I’m sure the market will eventually move this higher but clarity on YA or good news on ud-2 would move this higher and in short order. News on T-39 (TD, logging, cement job) and Nico permit due soon too.

It’d 45 days payment from getting the oil to the port where it’s bought.

Ah, understood.

Where?!

SB on iii - Well, for whatever reason, the Market has not quite woken up to the fact that the Taribani wells are very valuable and turning FRR in to a positive cashflows position. Furthermore, as more wells come on stream (remember 2 more already lined up via T39 and Niko), the 103M barrels ascribed by NS&A will be eligible to be transferred to P1-P2 reserves. However, the most significant impact could be using these 4 productive wells, the existing CPRs and field studies to 'twist' the Georgian Govt's arm to grant us the production license. Here I believe financing and/or JV has already been agreed to a large extent and in order to roll out a full field development of 250-wells on Taribani field, we need to secure the 25-year production license. Anyway, back to T-39; this started drilling on the 5th May and I expect this to be completed by the end of this weekend [i.e. say 27th May], with stimulation starting shortly after. So, under this timeline, initial flow rates could be with us in the next 10-14 days. Will T-39 throw up a nice surprise as it is being drilled to 2,800mtrs? Could be. Anyway, after T-39 stimulation of say 10-days, this will take us up to early June, and by then, the company will need to provide some guidance on the next stage of development and financing, including Niko. Thusfar, evidence on the oil production side has been very positive and the 3 wells could take up to 1,000bpd. I really hope that the company can leverage this cashflow to obtain some conventional lending facility to work the other wells. People also seem to forget that we have already sunk all the PB funds in to these 4 wells and any incremental production is going straight in to the cashflows, so these wells are already raising our heads above the water [although Market doesn't recognize it!]... Make no mistake, we are getting stronger with each well and with every new barrel added to the production. Clearly, YA issue is pending but I don't believe for a second that arrangements are not under discussion or negotiation. For argument sake, say 1,000bpd x$50 give us a net monthly income of $1.5M - I am sure they will sought out that problem with that kind of recurring income. For the record, remaining amount owed to YA is just $2.8M, so don't let other people make a mountain out of a molehill. Finally, gas, glorious gas. I'm still optimistically hoping for some kind of news on Ud this week, notwithstanding any behind the scene politics. Talking of politics, we need an update on the arbitration request plz. Still lots pending and lots to come in my opinion but any one that thinks FRR is a weaker company now than 3 months back, needs their head examined. JMO

I must’ve missed that. OUt and about

Ud-2?!

Nowt wrong with a good copy/paste ;) T-45 was stimulated in April so they’d have more than 30 days and Dino 2’weeks ago so again I think they mean 60 days?

There have been 3 of them so far. Bets on cancellations tomorrow..

Nice Pecten. This is the interesting bit - details on our expectations for the forthcoming 30 day initial production rates, which we believe are more meaningful data points than the instantaneous (1 day) initial production rates.

I agree. The shorters work off fear which they can generate if there are small gaps in RNSs. Ultimately with T-45 at 270bopd stabilised and Dino 310bopd or so how many barrels have been produced and over what period. The shorters are saying the stabilised flow could be over a day or less and that the bopd will fall off a cliff. The news so far has been good but adding details (assuming positive) gives more substance and less ammunition for shorters to work with. Why not do the 3 zones together as seems less expensive and more efficient? If it’s because it’s the safest way or most productive way why not say so. They explained why T-45 was being drilled before Dino so continue in the transparent vein. I’m holding and am sure we’ll be a lot higher come June. Hopefully new hear about ud-2 by the end of next week.

Devex on iii- Very happy with this - and quite a few first thoughts - he was very clear at the presentation - a) the perforation schedule will be adapted according to latest information (eg rock data, porosity etc), and b) these are test wells - for potentially 250 other wells. From what we have seen and heard they want to test each zone thoroughly and independently, and as 14 and 15 are the new areas these are being very carefully initiated. I suspect this is partly for future CPR and proving purposes - the previous NSA data will at some point need to be updated and they will want very clear data on each zone. - the economic model was updated positively re T45 - and no doubt WHI and the company will update again. Will surely be another upgrade - the longer we have no news on UD2 the better. They are doing all this very properly and clearly thoroughly - T39 won't be too far away, and quite possibly oil is already flowing. As SB says with Zone 9 we should be seeing well over 1000 bopd in HY2. Zone 13 may well add to this figure - Zaza's comments are back in the "hugely positive" mode - he stood back a bit after the arbitration issue. He knows pretty well how and when information will be RNS's - and I think he will play this for all its worth - As SB says there will are some serious cash flow impacts starting to arise, and ZMs comments are very much aimed at SOAG/GOGC etc - Any interested partner/investor will be looking at this with growing interest, and I suspect a number of new financing options are emerging for YA, Niko, MK Seismics, gas pipelines etc No doubt the SP will take time to respond - but for what it is worth the next 6 to 8 weeks are in my view building up to be the most significant in the history of FRR (thus far

SB on iii- Wonderful initial results from Dino2 - takes overall daily production to 765bpd. With T-39 around 3 weeks away from completion, hopefully we can hit the magical number of 1,000bpd very soon. Taking an average PoO of say US$70, that's US$70k extra cashflow every day. Hopefully this will help us to secure new RBL facility, which I feel is probably being discussed. Anyway, what is hugely important to remember is that both Dino and T45 are ONLY currently producing from zones 14 and 15. Zone 9 to come on line within next 30-60 days, so another 20%-30% uplift in daily production. And, yet we still await an announcement for what plans of Zone 13 [could also be very lucrative but could be dictated by arranging new financing?]. Also very interesting to note Zaza's comments, but specifically this..."The ongoing Block 12 Study Program, with the extensive geological and geophysical works, continues to confirm that the Eldari reservoir is very well developed within the Block 12 boundaries and extends well beyond 800sq.km wide Taribani Complex, where 80 sq.km Taribani field is situated. The current success of the Dino-2 testing is an important step forward towards achieving commercial development of the Taribani oilfield." I take this as strong hint that they will be pushing the Georgian Govt to convert the license to a production one. Finally, Ud-2 news this week? I think the chances has to be high. In the meantime, daily cashflow has increased US$60K a day - this is making tangible progress [and to think the price of oil makes little difference to company like FRR]. JMO

Wishing I had recorded this American reverends speech to use as a drinking game. LOVE = 1 drink. Fire = down it. Boom smashed.

5p but for a lot fewer shares. Not sure how many were on circularion then. Hoping for an RNS next week to regain momentum.

I think the RNSs could be a little clearer as when they’re not the shorters take advantage. The last one said T-45 naturally flowed light, sweet crude oil at a stabilised flow rate of 270 bbls per day. Giving more detail would be welcome. What was the initial flow, how many days stabilised at 270 for. I saw on Advfn a poster say it could be a day but obviously given it’s been testing fornweeks you’d assume several days at 270 if not more but because this wasn’t stated the shorters are able to jump on it. I expect an RNS in the next 2 weeks on T-39, cement and logging as well as initial flow from Dino-2 and if similar to T-45 will be good news. I hope ud-2 clean out has finished and we can get stabilised flow in 2 weeks or so too. We should also have news on the Nico permit too.

Zaza seemed dead set against using headroom to pay off YA. If they strike a similar deal to last time they need $400/month which at $70bbl (be conservative) is 191bop month so the additional oil from Dino could pay for this over 7.5 months or so. All speculation but if that’s the case the share price will be anfair whack higher (especially if T-45 has had one or two more zones stimulated and added to the mix). If ud-2 is a success a lot higher still so Niko could be paid for using headroom. At 1p would mean a little over 200m shares (£ to $) so still over 1bn shares left in authorised.