The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
You haven't a clue how the restructure and timeline plays out, so don't hold your breath on this going to zero.
The market is completely disconnected from the asset value, even with debt accounted for. Multiple PE has not be calculated and no one other than insiders are privy to discussions around how much equity from UK and US operations will be taken to remove the debt burden.
The RNS states, in circumstances where the value of the company's NET assets is less than HALF its called up share capital , Directors are required to convene a general meeting.
If you are certain this will go to zero, short it or bet against it.
As for CVC Capital Partners, if they are interested in RoW, let them have the discussions - Cineworld may ask for a large amount for it if a serious offer is put forward and then they can be in a position to negotiate with creditors on how this would influence the restructure BEFORE the commit to any potential sale.
Alternatively, if Cineworld can use those funds from the sale of RoW to pay off Cineplex and then negotiate with creditors to work out a reduced debt for equity, it could well translate to a much higher market cap and in turn share price multiple what it is now.
Bottom line is you don't know Jedclampit so you can speculate as much as I can.
Good find.
This could suggest an auction or bidding war from multiple interested parties.
We need the BoD to consider all options and engage their creditors to work out something that will translate in value for all parties Inc shareholders.
Hertz was able to achieve this so no reason Cine cannot.
Great insight, Antlev.
Whilst your anecdotal account means a lot to you, the numbers are not lying.
This is the most lucrative of all the movies which for a sequel or continuation is very rare.
Audiences have spoken. They want big screen action and the cinema is the place to experience it.
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/john-wick-4-box-office-sets-franchise-record-opening-weekend-1235564839/
FOOL is made up of tens of different investors who contribute to their blog.
Here is another one I came across today!
Author: RetailInvestor22
Date: 27/03/22
Time: 0900 BST
Title: Why I am buying CINE!
Text: I am buying CINE because of increased interest from speculative buyers. At less than 3p it is a worthy punt for me. I can see it going to the double digits soon enough!
Disclaimer: RetailInvestor22 is a private investor who owns stock in CINE, take a pinch of salt what he says
"Yes I’m in the market for a nice hat, maybe even a fascinator."
Fantastic! Just some advice so you don't commit a fashion faux pas; make sure the fascinator colour matches your dress as opposed to your heels :-)
Agree it was very good. I am going to watch it again!
I didn’t quote it as a worst case scenario, that would be 0 or course.
Equally the best case scenario is CP take $28m termination fee, creditors support cineworld and we go back to 100p+!
There are far too many scenarios.
At this price, many will buy stock and then live their lives off this BB which has become too toxic. Buy a stake or not, then go away and return once the final outcome is decided.
Creed III reporting updated.
1. $245m world wide with $140m domestic US
2. Highest domestic take for any sporting genre moving in history (inflation plays a part, too)
3. It has made more in 24 days than Creed II did in 90 days
Hexam and Wolf, will you be attending the GM on 20/04, together or individually?
Hexam, given the DIP financing used $271m to clear the debts off RoW, there is a scenario (not a certainty) that if Cineworld sees all of its equity interest for U.K. and US operations, both in scope of C11 restructure and them emerges with no remaining debt or a little debt outstanding (appreciating that ~66% of the debt they hold is because of the $4bn Regal acquisition), some believe given the recent appraisal value of $500m for RoW, that could translate in:
$500m - $271m = $229m or £186m across the 1373m works to be 11-13p/share (back of a cig packet).
It is speculative of course but we can agree, until we see the final restructuring plan or the conclusion, it remains a possibility.
Let’s try to get this board back in a good state ahead of the GM.
Personal attacks don’t add any value.
Wolf isn’t here for altruistic purposes to warn others but there is no need to make personal attacks. Simply ignore him or reply back.
The boiler room attacks usually start with some odd deramp and then invite along a gang or the same few posters under the same alias.
We know this stock is heavily shorted and most are holding below 0.5% to remain under the radar. They are just as committed to see this through to its demise, right where most remaining LTHs are at.
Let’s keep an eye on the news stream on more bids coming in and also start thinking of some questions to ask if there is a Q&A on 20/04 at Brentford HQ.
Wolf, no one is suggesting Amazon and Apple are going to abandon their streaming revenue but from an overall business perspective and one to ensure titles get the appropriate marketing, and help to reclaim production costs, theatrical will always remain a viable model.
Anyway, I’m not at all worried about the existential threat cinema faces, what is most interesting is how the market will perceive the latest news and what the GM reveals if anything at all.
Look up John Wick 4 exceeding expectations.
Next week is Dungeons & Dragons and then we have Mario and a whole raft of big movies coming out as we lead into the spring/summer season.
Creed III has made more theatrically in a few weeks than Creed II did for its entire theatrical run.
Amazon also have their next theatrical movie, Air playing which is already a top scorer in Rotten Tomatoes.
I wouldn’t be hung up about slow reporting on Creed III.
Of course your multiple alias posts are just for fun.
Clown school is finished for the term.
There is zero insight you bring to the BB other than your sheer desperation.
Cambridge, you’re the only one bricking it from your desperate deramp - that is a certified LOL.
LTH have all seen the earlier RNS. Those who bottled it have gone and those content with seeing a loss beyond what they have lost on paper already, are staying put for the Restructure to see what will remain.
John Wick 4 has smashed it this weekend and Apple joining Amazon with an initial $1bn investment for theatrical can only mean there is going to be continued interest and speculation, like there has with Ellison investments taking interest in RoW.
As Tegop says, if you’re confident it will be curtains, short it.
“I want you all to answer to me and tell me how sorry you are for not heeding my warning”
Cambridge, you absolute clown show.
I am not worried about the Cineplex judgement. It remains an unsecured creditor and whilst, Cineplex say they will continue to explore all avenues and forms of consideration to satisfy its judgment, it will be tied up in expensive litigation which it will not be able to claim from old Cineworld Plc when it is gone, let alone any of the judgement award.
"RI - the value of any sale of the ROW business would simply reduce the groups indebtedness. The chapter 11 is simply an automatic stay from prosecution for those companies which are within the UK and US groups, which is why the DIP finance cleared down the ROW debt in the first place. It stopped the ROW creditors starting litigation against Cine"
Wolf, I understand this would be the case IF RoW is sold BEFORE the Restructuring Plan is agreed, but we can agree there are a number of scenarios or permutations this can play out.
The scenario I see, is as follows:
1. Cineworld is unable to agree with Cineplex to establish an out of court settlement on the $700m award that is under appeal
2. Cineworld publish the Restructure Plan and secured creditors take 99% of the UK and US business, seeing no equity recovery for existing shareholders. All debt is wiped out of Cineworld.
3. Cineworld Plc remains with RoW valued at $500m. Secured creditors do not take this.
4. Cineworld look to transfer across RoW to NEW Cineworld Plc and swap the 1373m shares from the old Cineworld Plc to the new shared issued.
5. Cineplex judgement remains which Cineworld can progress through an appeal and shore up more capital by raising equity via a rights issue if they are so confident that Cineplex did indeed breach those covenants and fail to honour the Arrangement Agreement conditions.
Don’t beat yourself up iparsnip.
Most are in the same boat.
2022 was rubbish for most investments.
The takeaway is RoW is seen to be worth $500m.
The DIP financing for it was ~$300m to clear the debt.
Assuming the creditors take 99% of the US and U.K. business operations of Regal and Cineworld, and the debt in turn, would that mean the adjusted value of equity remaining would be ~$200m or £163m?
Would the translated value of Cineworld shares then be worth £163m/1373m shares = 11.8p/share?
I know some will come along and rubbish that citing, “RoW is also fair game for any sale”
My argument is, given Chapter 11 has made it clear that it involves US and U.K. operations only for the restructure, should that restructure go ahead and wipe out equity interests, the existing shares will remain, the existing PLC is not being folded and thus, one could speculate that the above is potentially feasible?