The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Gil is never conservative. Call him optimistic or loudmouthed. His ****iness is what I don't like about Eco. But the fundamentals are in favour of the share.
I would divide any price and production target he gives out by 2. And increase every time budget he gives by 1/4.
I'll have Cragganmore ready to be spud :-)
Hi Tony,
in my opinion the Budget 2022 was more or less designed to test and prove every play we have. Be it for internal purposes, be it for farmout discussions or be it to be prepared in case of a takeover bid.
Guess we are not through with that and we will follow up in 2023 with a budget similar that size. I guess its more prudent to spend money on the drill bit vs. doing share repurchases.
Once we have proven twice what we have, its a simle EXCEL-Exercise whether share repurchase or further drilling is most value accreditive to shareholders. But as I said - wen need at least another year of drilling to get there.
In my view its a fantastic update, we are way undervalued. Will top up once Eco has hit Gazania - gt no free money til then :-)
Don't forget about Guyana!
Tullow has just failed in the merger with Capricorn. Neither in the Merge nor in the previous Presentation there was even a mentioning of Guyana-Activities. Thus the tullow-share in our block & the operatorship is clearly for Sale. Hope Total or we jump in and get a bigger piece of the pie.
It's just math. In Harbours View:
- 8 GBP would be accreditive.
- 4,5 or 5 GBP would be more accreditive :-)
Any bidder should have a feeling, what Price would be sufficient and how the offer should be structured.
Obviously, the 4,2 GBP KIST offered , half of which consisted of shares of questionable value, was insufficient.
Takeover Szenario:
Simple Calculation: Harbours Valuation EV/flowing Barrel is roughly double ours - despite their ugly hedging-quota. They could pay up to 8 GBP for SQZ and it would still be substantially value accredditive for them.
ofc I can't see too many Harbours out there. Who else has the financial firepower AND NS-Assets that need investments?
Hi, have been invested in RKH but on hte sideline for approx. 3 years. Now considered a re-entry. Since I don't believe a word SM ist talking, I checked the englisch Navitas- Website, how things are progressing. Now I'm concerned. The site is very, very outdated, no news since mid 2021. Has anybody an idea or proof that they startet or conducted their Projects in USA? Perhaps someone who can red the hebrew-Version of the Website?
Because: Having a healthy financial sound Partner is crucial. I'm afraid we have the wrong partner - again...
Not so blue as expected. The increase is entirely gas. Oil production fairly flat vs. 1HJ 22. Its 4.030 barrel vs. 3.916.
SInce its not apparent if the royality production is included in the oil-volume - wording is a bit ambivalent - it could be, that oil-production even declined vs. HJ1.
Hope the remaining 7 wells are entirely oil - and guess the pure oil clearwater wells are to be added in Q4 22 and Q1 23 - the only time when weather allows drilling in that area.
Thus I'll sit and add and wait for Production update RNS in early November - just after the "Serenety hit big time" RNS :-)
Parkmead never delivered anything but marketing and bla bla. More Parkmead bla bla talk is no reason for a Serica RNS.
If there was a contract and a timetable - that would justify an RNS. But there is none.
Parkmead is talkes. Serica is achievers.
End of May we hat 150 Mio GBP tied up in Margin Calls. Prices were shy of 100/Term, now its 4-fold. I'm happy that the hedges are fading out slowly. But still I guess most of our Cash is tied up in Margin-Calls - could be something like 400 Mio by now. We should know when half years figures are released.
Being prudent and careful, BoD simly cannot give an extra dividend as long as the threat of even higher margin calls is imminent.
What they could (and should) do is laying out and explaining the fundamentals and impose a firm shareholder return policy - like e.g. IPC did.
Derived from semi-last Presentation the hedges - and the risk of margin calls - are slowly fading out:
Q3 22 41.8 300,000
Q4 22 47.0 250,000
Q1 23 55.6 200,000
Q2 23 42.2 100,000
Q3 23 40.7 50,000
Just as a matter of interest. We are heavy hedging NTM production. At Serica I saw that they had to put much money aside for the margin calls derived from their SWAPs.
Never heard anything similar from i3. Is there a risk that we could get margin calls if POO an Alberta Gas continues to rise?
Do hey have to report quarterly figures? My understanding was, that just half year financial reporting is mandatory.
OFC the do something like quarterly production update - and inbetween. Did not really manage to find a pattern or when to expect the next RNS...
Jip, Repsol would be the preffered partner. But bringing in additional partners BEFORE appraisal just does not make sense to me. Don't agree with connections to EOG - we've got enough to drill ourselves in Canada. No need for an Moroccan or Irish adventure. Funny enough that Morocco seems a safe jurisdiction compared to Ireland and its FFF Government.
Dont understand:
Discussions continue with other potential farminees, and i3 will consider bringing in additional parties up to the point of drilling commencement.
It would be more prudent to bring additional partners in once the Appraisal is sucessful... Any thaughts? Reasoning behind it? Or do they want to give away another 25% for a free carry?
Don't get it...
Totally agree. Mr Market is ATM unable to see the true Value of i3. Simple reason is, we have no valid reporting for the enhanced company (incl. Covenus) and we've got some one off items in 2021. Thus it leaves the insight to the people who heavy researched this stock and did their due diligence. Guess thats not the genetral public, its more or less a handful people.
My take is, that Market/general public/Nutall etc. will evaluate/regognice i3 when H1 2022 figures and reports are out. Thats not before 09/2022. I won't sell a share til then :-)
Bonus: We are heavy derisking our major plays. Its one thing when Management says "Simonette has company making potential" but another when this claim is supported by wells and flow rates. I see us derisking virtually every play until YE 2022. The only question mark is our 100% owned Clearwater acreage, where we do appraisal in 21/22 have to wait til next drilling season. Sadly that could be a cash elephant and I wished we had more speed in deresking clearwater.
Given the rise in AECO Gas - the only way is up! The only thing that hurts are the hedges. We will see a big new drilling programm anounced soon, I guess. True rerate will begin at year end.
Patience required and will be rewarded. GLTA
I think the sole comparison of FCF/EV is misleading. In contrast to Nutalls's best we got very low decline rates. Nutalls favourites got to spend more money to keep production flat than we do. Talking about some frackers with decline rates of 25-30%, we got some 7-9%.
Thus, a FCF (production flat)/EV comparison would reveal how cheap we are. But I won't calculate that - I'm happy with i3 and won't think about selling a single share til 40p.
Funny though that the US-democrats drafted a windfall-profit tax - albeit it will not become law, I guess. One more reason to be happy with canadian Oilers.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/***3812740-big-oil-tax-proposal-50-windfall-tax-rate-to-fund-stimulus-checks?mailingid=26991041&messageid=2900&serial=26991041.52169&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=26991041.52169
What strikes me is: "we will look for ways to optimise the Bruce production rates during this period". My reading is, that Bruce could deliver more, but we have a bottlekneck at the handling-facility. Seems that its not capable of more than 25k throughput. i had the idea when i saw the jumping Bruce-productionfigures in on of the recent RNS.
does anybody know more about that?
Becouse if that's true - a subsea-tie in of Eigg-north (if successful) would not lead to more production. Nor would the infill and optimizaion drilling, thats planned for Bruce in Q2.