Member Info for Rehauer

Their Targeted/Budegeted Oil Price is 72$ WTI - we are currently 17 USD above that target.

WCSBCanuck - Thanks for explaining. That means we drill 40% of the known - and they should all come in as a success.

I agree with your baseline. we've got enough gas - we need more oil in the mix.

Excuse the silly questions but:

1) When they talk about +200 locations its an educated guess, or "inferred"?

2) When they drill one of the 23 locations in the inventory - this could upgrade some locations from the 200 "inferred" in the invetory-category?

"operational plan now calls for using 40% of CLEARWATER's inventory"

I'm quite sure that most of our money is spent in clearwater - we need reliable ROI, and Clearwater is best. Simonette has similar economics, but you get roughly 7 Clearwater wells for the price of 1 Simonette. Drilling 7 wells in clearwater means, you diversify risk. Furthermore we have to test all our plays in our somehow scattered acreage there.

But 40% would mean the got to drill 80 locations. Guess that won't happen. I'm happy when we drill as much as we can - and as the convenants allows us. At current POO the payout should be half a year Month (at WTI 72 it was 0,6 years).

Could imagine we drill the 6 wells in winter, another 10 in summer and so on - cashflow-wise funding itself.

Hope we drill clearwater like hell :-)

Thanks a lot, Tony! Remains to be seen how all this plays out on our Gas-boes and on AECO price in the long run. Centainly no bad thing, when LNG capacity comens online in North america - even when it's near the Gulf of Mexico. At the End of 2025 there is definitely more export-capacity in USA than supply --Y higher Prices. According to 2023.Q1 Goehring and Rozencwajg Market Commentary the major gasplays in US have reached peak production or are in decline. My guss: It will be a matter of pipeline and transport-capacity, wether the canadian gas prices rise accordingly. Hard to predict. But we saw some nice movement last year where US-gas leaded a rise in Canada-Gasprice.

Too bad - i lost my Crystal-Ball :-)

Ty, WCSBCanuck. So no new Porjects planned or with FID. - LNG canada seems to be the only one in construction.

Hi guys,

postet this question in Canada bt no resprone up to now. Has anybody here the Information or can help? It's something crucial for our valuation, thus:

I just know about the big LNG Canada project, schedued to come online in 2025 in Kitimat. Are there currently other canadian LNG projects in construction - either west or eastcoast?

Just found that source - but I guess ists outdated and it does not show whether there is activity or not xxxxs://natural-resources.canada.ca/energy/energy-sources-distribution/natural-gas/canadian-lng-projects/5683

We'll reconsidered. My Investment-Case was debt reduction and Cash Flow gereration. Now I'm stranded in a "we gamble on diamond prices to recover". I prefer cash, not inventories. Guess I'll leave.

Not so bad as it would seem on first sight. We've got plenty diamonds still in our inventory. But I must admit I'd prefer they would keep debt flat and postpone just the sales that are above that range. Anyway the cash position tells that we have enough funds to wait for markets to recover - and to conduct the necessara investments.

Last year was really bad especially when you think of Williamson. Taking that into consideration and assuming Williamson will deliver the usual fancy stones, the report and outlook is o.k. for me.

@Pananmapeter: Thanks a lot! But I use it on Louis10.

Tony,

I know. And everybody who is longer in this froum knows who has trustworthy information and who not.

Unfortunately there is no "block this guy" function at LSE-forums. at least I could not find it.

This whole "Jim" thing is getting annoying.

I very much Appreciate Tonys (and others) post and thaughts, since the provide valuable information. That's what this board should be about.

Keep it up Tony! And calm down Jim - just post, when you have something substantial to say - about i3!!

I just was at the Polus homepage. They are no long term investors. - they are pure lenders. Already got their loan back. They want to sell the shares, I'm sure. Just waiting for the right price I guess. And in the meantime demanding divi. Hope they get out quickly.

Add this to my previous post and we have a buyout scenario.

Here something I posted on the canadian chat. Guess this peer comparison is a different view, thus i like to share:

I recently did due diligence on other North American Gas Companies. Our Valuation is ridiculous, even when you compare us to mre or less pure gas plays. Range ressources and Antero are similar to our mix of Gas and NGL but have much less oil. And we are Factor 2-3 cheaper than them.

Put it the other way round: If RR or Antero were to buy i3 at lets sa 0,40 CAD it would be accreditive. They could sell the oily acreage in Clearwater, Montney and Simmonette and get it more or less for free. Don't think that will happen, since it is not their focus. But anyone with some 100 Mio $ in the pocket could do that. I would reach out to Polus and do it on my own, if I had the money....

Well, first we have to get rid of all PIs that were in for mnthly divi. I'm not in for quarterly divi either but for the insane Valuation. Even more ridiculous when you see the extensive acreage we have. Assuming the fracking companies in the US Shale run out of Tier1 drill locations it's really blue sky potential here.

Add to it the LNG-Offtakers and the risin price of cas in the years to come I'm close to over-over-overweight i3.

We have to keep in mind that the lenders are a tradin ghouse - keen on volumes they trade. Means: If we buy producing assets they would presumably extend the loan facility and provide extra cash for the acquisition. Simply because it is supporting their business.

In the current enviroment they don't have to worry about repayment. Price of oil saves us all.

But I must admit - i would like no akquisition at all, we've gt enough to drill. Except entirely debt funded and with exceptional metrics.

In general we've got to wait til End of 2025 when all the LNG-Offtakers (expecially the on ein Canada) come online. Price of Gas should jump then - noone can feed the capacities in constrution.

Because you can't repay the debt in the short time like the securitized bonds order. Just calculate future cash flows and compare to the repayments scheduled.

Besides that, there is always an equity-component involved in akquisitions. We don' t have the equity and we don't have the free cash. The recent land sales set up an additional flag.

Too many things to worry about in my view - I'm out. Just wanted to share my views in the board.

DYOR and good luck

Correction - 10% p.a. Decline Rate

It's quite obvious: - the free cash Flow goes almoste entirely in Dividends and Interest payments.

Since we have a 10% p.a. - we have to do something to keep production per share flat:

1. Buy back 10% Shares p.a

or

2. Akquisitions

The former we tried and stopped, the latter we do. But regardless of 1. or 2. - there has to be free CF/equity to do that.

the nly sources of Equity/CF available are:

- Dilution --> what we do and what makes the "production per Share" worse an worse

- Cancel the divi

No good prospect if you ask me. As long as we stick to the hgh divi ists kind of a pyramid system.

I've been a holder since 1,1 GBP sold yesterday. There are better companies elsewhere.

https://*********************/media/i3-energy-eyeing-up-acquisitions-after-raising-forecasts

at 07:30 - guess they have something cooking...

Makes a good read, especially current production. And that we are back to normal working capital levels. Guess there is a debt-based acquisition in the making - hopefully at a 60$ WTI price deck.....