Member Info for regvarny

Yes a buy. News soon Reg

Serco makes an unscheduled trading statement, the day after Bloomberg inaccurate report Capita ESS offers were below expectations. Its then reported in Sunday Telegraph Serco intend to invest in fixed fee rail contracts. These contracts will need to be funded by cash not paper. Serco also said last week it may do a share buyback. IMHO trading statement together with share buyback signals paper funded acquistion. Reg

Bertles, not with Schroders increased share holding. Looks like plan B to me.....Good night my friend....Im off to watch Columbo....maybe he can give me few clues.....ha ha Reg

Bertles, selling assets for less than you want through necessity....fire sale....I wonder if they will get the necessary time to restructure, before someone does this for them. We will see. Cheers Reg

Jimmy agreed........NOFear put the argument, Thursdays Bloomberg reported ESS sale news was old and inaccurate. I agree with him on TPG dropping out in first round and the omission of Montagu, Francisco Partners taking part with Bain in second round. So why was this news/hearsay reported and not then denied by Capita Daves argument. The silence is deafening! Things may become clearer on Monday. Cheers Reg

Bertles, two roads....forced seller of assets.....or takeover. I adjourn. Cheers Reg

Bertles, the question is.......would Capita be better off following plan A selling off the family silver in a fire sale ......or plan B merging with an industry peer, who can afford to pay mpre for whole business. A premium based on synergies, cross selling, new markets. Both Capita and Serco have similar turnovers, but Serco know how to make more pennies in £ stick. Reg

Bertles, I rule nothing in or out. Outsourcing, in general has seen much consolidation recently ie Mitie Interserve, Guarda G4S. Link Group. Serco move last week looks like they have an acquisition in mind.. We will see in due course. Reg

Jimmy, good point about about Gov, info. on new arrangements for rail industry will take time. So do you think todays press release could be a smokescreen to cover Serco real intension to acquire Capita. John

Further, I still would not rule out a Capita/Serco combination. Todays Telegraph news makes it less probable. Reg

Thanks Bertles, Serco, with its strong balance sheet and experience in fixed fee Raii contracts, looks well placed to win Gov. Rail business next year. It will have competition from strong established players; Go Ahead, Stagecoach, National Express and possibly fellow outsourcers with strong balance sheets such as Bad****, Balfour Beatty. You cant rule out, Serco acquiring a weaker established player such as First Group. Interesting stuff. No smoke without fire. Cheers Reg

Serco wants to bid on fixed fee rail contracts......Reg

Opinions......on bidding war for Capita......Rivals: Bab****, G$S, Accenture, Balfour Beatty, Engie or Private Equity Bain , CVC etc. Reg

Biurtles, which ever option A or B is the best value for shareholders. This all depends on what offers Capita receives. Reg

Bertles, yes its all about extracting the best value for shareholders. The options are; Plan A sell ESS for less and plough on or plan B keep ESS and sell the business as a whole. Reg

Further, it would take years for Serco to enter some of Capita markets. IMHO Capita is oven ready for Serco. Reg

Disabled, psychology leads my investment decisions. I like to read the smoke signas given out by companies. Then flesh out the hypothesis through debate. Im not an accountant. I leave that to the professionals. Serco and Capita are direct competitors for the same G/ment business. Electronic tagging. MOD firefighters etc. By acquiring Capita, Serco would eliminate its competition, have stonger bargaining power on Gov contracts, synergies duplicated costs taken out of the business. Serco would also have the oppertunity to develop Capita higher margin businesses through cross selling and entering new markests. Reg

Jimmy, this could be a twin track approach plan B for Capita. Manangement need to do achieve best value for shareholders. Talks between Serco and Capita could have been going on for some time. Serco have now put a price on their paper with trading statement. Serco can afford to pay more for Capita through synergies. They have all weekend to talk. Watch Sunday press for leaks. Reg

Bertles, we adjiourn. Cheers Reg

Bertles, I disagree, Serco are clearing the decks bringing forward trading statement . There is a reason for this. Its likely Serco are about to strike a deal with an industry outsourcing competitor using its stock rather than cash to fund its purchase. Capita or G4S could be the targets All this co insides with Capita reported failure to sell ESS for the price it wants. This may have triggered Serco into action. Its possible, Serco has been running its slide rule over or in talks with Capita for months. We dont Know. If true, an agreed all share deal could be announced as early as Monday. John