Member Info for RegulatorUK

“ Interesting that leaked NHS documents indicate a vaccine will be distributed within the next month or so.”

That’s complete and utter nonsense. No Covid19 vaccine is being distributed as there isn’t one available.

I'll stick my head back in about 3.30 pm when today's FOMO will kick in.

"Regulator. You not in AVCT then."

Yep - but I'm still up (significantly) overall on them...

I do have to laugh at some of the somewhat desperate posts on AVCT BB. It makes this place look tame. I tend to avoid it as there's just too much ignorant detritus to wade through.

All my Covid stocks are blue today...

We also have to remember that a smaller government order works in our favour, as it frees up capacity to be used for other orders. Let's not forget that the consortium (via CIGA) has been taking pre-orders for the professional use POC test. Now they're going to be able to line up finalisation of those orders and production of the tests... at a much better price than the government will be paying.

As Simmodbest says, the Novacyt antibody test is a lab based ELISA. The UK is already struggling with lab capacity for antigen testing - it's not going to want to use that scarce capacity for antibody testing (never mind the issues around reagent supplies for those lab based tests). The future of antibody testing will be self-use LFTs.

"The government want 1million for checking the community spread. They will choose at random out of a hat 1 millions people scattered around the UK and gather their data. These studies don't just keep gathering more data. 1 million is more than enough for their reporting. This isn't an ongoing testing regime announced."

Wrong, wrong, wrong. The testing will need to be repeated at regular intervals. Epidemiology isn't based on one off snapshot surveys but longitudinal studies.

It's clear that the ONS will need to upgrade from the Fortress antibody test. There's only one that's going to be approved for self-use in the coming days...

I have my eye on a Hase Kettwiesel. I had a Trice Q in the past and I quite fancy a delta...

...problem is I'd need a new shed.

My other half has told me very firmly "No new bikes"...

...he's a miserable git!

“ In at 111.95 (SL at 109) for a bounce trade. Does the pos test actually test SPECIFICALLY for COVID19 or does it test +ve for other virus' too????”

So you’re buying on the basis of a test that you don’t know the basics about?

That sounds sensible...

... on the new ultralight tent and carbon walking poles! I may even go for a new stove.

"Shardster I just don’t see it with odx.

You can catch it twice, that’s been proven, so what use is an antibody test?"

We need to understand that the Paraytec test and UK-RTC/ODX test are complementary to each other - not in competition. Both will be needed going forward.

Don't dismiss antibody testing. It will be needed to ensure the efficacy of vaccines. We know that a few people (and so far it's only two worldwide with published clinical evidence) may get reinfected, so we need antibody testing to assess (through longitudinal studies) the length of any antibody immunity.

ODX will boom over the coming months. Some of that growth will likely get reinvested here...

(For transparency purposes, I'm invested in both ODX and BRH).

"Remember ODX is the only company currently who have got the UK government contract, no one else has got it yet."

Let's just be clear... the UK-RTC has a government contract - not ODX. ODX is just one manufacturer in the consortium.

This is a long term hold share that will deliver big time in the coming months and years. There's no need to overstate the ODX position.

I have asked Deeks on Twitter whether his press release included the normal declaration of interests...

but if anyone's got any spare change, they might like to take a look at Braveheart (BRH). It's another of my Covid stocks and it's been rising nicely over the last few weeks.

"People also dont seem to understand that deals of this nature are incredibly hard to negotiate. They seem to think a government advisor turns up with a 20m pounds cheque and say give me 5m tests and its done. They don't understand all the legal spiel that needs to be added into the contracts etc, they also don't understand that its not as simple as committing to buy X now and when RTC are doing global orders, the government cant just come back and say we want X million more tests and expect them to be fulfilled.

Its a complicated balancing strategy. Millions of pounds are at play and limited capacity. It would help for all parties to get this right and avoid contract disputes later on. Throw in wanting government funding to ramp up manufacturing and its messy to say the least."

As someone who does this stuff for a living, it's not actually that difficult - if you have competent people on both sides. The legal boilerplate is fairly standard.

The problem UK-RTC have is a lack of competence and senior leadership in DHSC. In the last couple of years, many of their most competent and experienced staff have left...

"I think Colin will be shrewd in the negotiating."

Colin is unlikely to be involved directly in the negotiations. Abingdon is the lead partner in the consortium - they'll be doing the negotiating with the government on behalf of the others. It's worth remembering that, for the UK-RTC, ODX is purely manufacturing capacity.

It's another i-Abra Virolens...

Basically, it's a prototype that's being field tested. It wouldn't get approval in the UK, as it doesn't currently meet the standards.

Scenting is an interesting way of testing for Covid - certainly the experiment using dogs at Helsinki airport is promising, and there is a history of using dogs in diagnostics.

"Allways enjoy your posts regulator but have to disagree they presented to institutional investors etc prior to the placing with no pi knowledge hence the pi got a percentage offered to them and the rest to institutional clients the management will have been sized up long before now"

This presentation is in conjunction with Turner Pope Investments, who have a mix of corporate and private clients. This presentation isn't intended primarily for the independent PIs (like most of us), believe me. This is about positioning ODX with significant potential investors.

"Educate me please what can be said that’s not price sensitive everything is that’s why it’s an investor meeting .what can be said ?Big Brenda in the office is pregnant They have changed the brand of coffee in the canteen I don’t get how you can say owt about owt which isn’t relevant to the company viability and therefore SP !"

This is a presentation targeted at some selected institutional investors. It's about providing them with an opportunity to size up the management...