Member Info for RegulatorUK

"Today 16:01
MrIndia- it’s most certainly Innova as they are being used right now. If we get involved with testing pre vaccine, that depends on Mologic. With vaccine, we need a proper Rns linking us to Oxford."

Innova is an antigen test...

",its a hard share to hold at the moment when everything else is going up in regards to Vaccine news "

My Covid portfolio is showing drops on everything - not just ODX. And ODX is generally holding up better than the others.

Keep the faith... ODX will deliver.

HSJ is reporting that Covid admissions are falling in all English NHS regions except London and the South East. Given the London-centric view of Downing Street and Whitehall, I wouldn't be surprised to see the current restrictions extended beyond 2 December.

"Thank you RegulatorUK for your input, a question is when do you think all these positive information will reflect to the SP?
Thx"

I don't know...

I've always been clear that for me ODX is a long term hold. It's not just about the Covid products but the wider portfolio (in particular for me the Vistect CD4 tests, as I've worked in the LMI countries they're aimed at).

The problem that ODX has is that there are too many 10%ers and 'get rich quick' PIs involved, attracted by the possibilities that Covid brings but who don't really understand the context in which ODX and the UK-RTC are working. One only has to look at the desperate ramping (and the accusations that you've "sold out" if one doesn't drink the ODX-vangelist KoolAid) and rumour chasing that goes on.

As I understand it, with respect to the orders:

- the £75 million is a call-off contract for the tests themselves, of which 1 million have been 'called off' (but the value of that 1 million tests has not been confirmed)
- the £10 million contract was to allow UK-RTC to purchase items needed to manufacture the tests

"As a holder of ODX - and Avacta - I think our opportunity will be making the Avacta antigen test"

The simple fact is, Avacta has no test (which is disappointing to me, as an Avacta shareholder), and is months behind its competitors.

As Merchantbanker says, Mologix/Visitect will be the route for ODX to go.

The IP for the antibody test is owned by Abingdon. The other parties to the consortium are manufacturing capacity (and, in the case of CIGA, sales) - that's it.

"I agree with much of what you say, but isn't the antigen market too crowded now for us to come in on?"

Absolutely not. Most testing for active infection is currently molecular testing, and the antigen testing taking place is primarily lab-based. There is a still a need - and a clear market - for POC antigen testing, not just in the UK but overseas - particularly in LMI countries where access to lab capacity is limited.

"With the Mologic antigen test still to materialise, is there a possibility this will be quietly dropped as the world moves toward vaccination and antibody testing in the next few months?"

The simple answer is no.

Although there are announcements about vaccination starting imminently, the timetables are already slipping. And it will take a long time for sufficient 'herd immunity' to be reached globally for there to be any material reduction in the need for molecular and antigen testing. We tend to forget how interconnected the world is these days.

And we have to remember we don't know how long the effects of these vaccines will be. What normally takes years has been compressed into months and we've not had the longitudinal studies we'd normally have. Covid19 will be with us for a long time yet...

"we should not only depend on UK gov to hand out these TEST contracts but we need to look to promote globally ,delays with MHRA approval is causing issues with Gov contract."

The UK-RTC cannot sell its tests to third parties - either in the UK or overseas - without the agreement of DHSC.

We already have prospective orders - we're just waiting on DHSC agreement.

"Are Ciga and BBI still members of the Consortium, and how long has the MOU been extended for? It's pretty obvious the Consortium still exists in some capacity."

Yes they are - CIGA is leading the sales work for the UK-RTC.

I'm not sure why people seem to be chasing these red herring ideas around the consortium....

"It's looking like abingdon and possibly avacta are/will be used."

Avacta doesn't actually have a test...

"Pfizer MHRA statement

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-mhra-statement?utm_source=277e7126-8817-4dcf-95c9-723a3c8c82c2&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate"

An interestingly worded statement from MHRA.

I'll be interested to see what the Pfizer efficacy rates are when they release the full Phase III results and these are independently validated.

*with supply

"I don't know how long the OX vaccine can last before it needs using but is there not a danger of a cliff-edge in LFT supplies as it appears the vaccine can be made a great deal quicker than we can upscale and potentially license? Thanks."

We don't know what the testing regime will be at the moment, so it's difficult to know whether or not we will get to a cliff edge or not, as we have already been manufacturing for some time to build up buffer stocks.

I note that the NHS has already rolled back on the vaccination timetable published in the planning documents a week ago. Talking to people in the field, it appears that although the vaccine development process is progressing well, there are potential issues with large scale manufacture and distribution. There is, for example, issues will supply of glass vials. There has, apparently, also been some issues around access to ingredients. I think it may be a case that vaccine production will struggle to keep up with demand.

The NHS planning codenames for the vaccines are:

- Pfizer/BioNTech = 'Courageous'
- Oxford/AstraZeneca = 'Talent'

The order for vaccination will be:

1) Care home residents and staff, healthcare workers
2) Ages 80 plus
3) Everyone aged 70-80
4) Everyone aged 65-70
5) All high and moderate risk under 65s
6) Everyone aged 50-65
7) Everyone aged 18-50

The NHS are hoping to start vaccinating the first three groups in December, subject to vaccine availability. As someone in the first group, it'll be interesting to see which vaccine I'll be offered.

"But with people claiming we are going to be making billions of tests, then I just don't see it. Omega is a drop in the ocean of what we need, as is the RTC in comparison to these forecasts. So we will see some big diagnostic companies around the world gearing up their own tests. Noneheless, I expect Omega to sell everything they can produce until summer next year. Thanks."

It's about capacity.

Molecular testing (e.g. RT-PCT, ELISA, etc) is time-consuming, requires specialist equipment and highly trained staff. There simply isn't the capacity nationally and internationally to cope with the amount of testing required. And there isn't really the opportunity to ramp it up significantly in the short term, despite what the government might claim, as the key factor missing are the trained lab staff.

The key to this will be rapid, POC testing - and that's basically LFTs (the other methods have yet to be proven clinically). The expertise in developing LFTs isn't as wide-spread as you might think - nor is the capacity to manufacture that simple to put in place: it requires specialist manufacturing equipment, which has to be installed, commissioned and have trained staff to operate it. We know that it's taking ODX, a specialist manufacturer, time to increase its capacity - it will take new entrants or less experienced manufacturers even longer... if they can get the equipment and the staff, that is.

"Regulator UK, all you post is straight lines, you're have a uncanny inability to read between the lines. I wonder why you are into shares at all."

You seem to have a problem with accuracy and facts... now stop stalking me and troll along elsewhere.

Probably a combination of (b) and (c).

"I think anyone can make the antibody test - it's in the pubic domain I think due to the nature of the crisis. (I think that's right)."

The genetic mapping of the virus is in the public domain and, to that extent, anyone can use the data to create an antibody test.

Not anyone can make the UK-RTC AbC19 antibody test.