Member Info for redwineday

Hopefully will give one of the majors an interest to take this company out.

Yep.

khan - you should have held on mate. Best buy again in the morning to avoid missing out.

I'm actually quite surprised he is still in the job. With the new BoD arrivals his card must be marked surely?

Good to see.

Lets see where it settles once the hordes have departed, I see some have already left. Anyway not to shabby a day :-)

Great news and demonstrates the CEO has the job in hand.

I think you'd be a bit red in the face Dave if you are waiting on the BoD doing something to get the SP up. That said given the SP shrug that has greeted what was a great PDL RNS I think, for whatever reason the market is not interested in miners and diamond miners in particular. Maybe China? Then on top we have the GEMD information black hole.

This RNS is great news for holders of PDL. Which I understood from a previous post you were not, which begs the question what you are here, but anyway....

YTD revenue is already 264m compared with 406m in the whole of the last year. So they are on track to add 100mm in gross earnings. Even allowing for the additional capex, which will be partially offset by Williamson we are looking at 40m+ in profit. The must be sitting on c 200m in cash right now, roughly equivalent to the market cap.

One day Rodney, one day!

Index diamond price index sat at 125 on Jan 1 2019, GEMD SP was 112p. Index today is 136, 9% higher. GEMD SP is 45p 60% lower. Net debt was $10m and EPS was 5c. This year we will see net cash of 30M? and EPS of 8c?

Don't get it.....

GEMD should be printing money but looks like no one cares or believes. Even he LT posters here are bailing.

Seems nuts to me that this share is close to its year lows a hot market. Makes no sense. Maybe time for me to get my jacket too!

SNG at 52 week high, no news and no FDA approved drug

STX at 52 week low, generating revenue and FDA approved drug.

One priced on a dream, the other written off on thesis of no RNS for 2 months. Hey ho...

Would be good to see some sort of pre close trading update. But that would mean being proactive with the market, so thats out.

Hi Shandy, thanks

Do you have any info on the payer coverage? As I mentioned in an earlier post I spent some hours a couple of weeks ago sifting through various payer websites looking for Accrufer on their lists. From what I could see in my small sample was that it had started to appear, albeit with approval required. That is, not first choice but after first choice (salts) had been tried or the patient was required to request Accrufer specifically. This seemed positive to me as some weeks earlier I had done the same exercise and came up with zero.

I agree, I don't think you can take no news is automatically bad news. The the difference between bad and good news on this numerically will be so small that I'm sure one could take whatever they stated anyway. If I were him i would wait for as long as possible before reporting as the data around payer coverage gained is what we should be looking at. If this is progressing then it becomes a matter of time. I these first months the sales team will be focused on biggest prescribers I guess so weighted impact should be positive over time. What I do hope we see in January is an encouraging statement on potential. They should have a feel for this by now.

I think another placing at this price is difficult. Again if I were him I would be trying to get the SP up on positive news and then issue debt which at that time would be easier.

Just tuned in to see Gemd SP had a blue day. WTF! Normal service resumed tomorrow I suppose.

It's got a long way to stir. I just checked 1 yr SP performance, LOOK up 65%, similar to PDG. VTU up 127% and MMH up 196%

So the valuation gap is enormous. Let's see if the new Chairman can close it.

Hmmm
I am sure they have already worked out their conjoint analysis on price vs volume.

Could be any revised forecast will incorporate that but Id be surprised if they reduce the price forecast without lifting the projections on volume.

Hi Mudis, you are right. He has 1m in the pot already withe the rest to come. He is still well incentivised though. 1m at todays 30p per share or 1m at £2 a share is a tidy difference. Plus 600k at if 57 p next June. So 1.6m total. He can bag a multi million dollar pot if he gets the execution right.

So today looks like new 52 week low. Before I reach for the corkscrew I remind myself of this

10m prescriptions per year written in the US of ****ty soluble iron. 60% of this is written by 65,000 doctors. 30% is written by 11,000 doctors and 100 doctors write more than 1000 each per year. I would imagine those doctors are already prescribing Accrufer. Hardman research has US sales at 60m GBP in 2023 say 90m US. At $500 per pack it infers market share of 6% of the 11k or 3% of the 65k or 1.8% total market. STX say 60 reps can cover 80% of the market prescribers and today they have 30 so in theory after a period of time the should be able to cover 40% of the market.

On this level of US sales plus 12m from ROW Hardman has EPS of 15p and a valuation of 281p per share.

Lest assume thats out by 50% EPS, this makes it 7p on less than 1.8% MS. and 140p per share. If the market opportunity is bigger than this, say 3.0% then you can do the maths.

The price today implies no sales revenue form ROW and a share penetration in the US of a fraction of the above. Maybe you can say well, the market thinks that either another fund raise or debt raise will be needed. Even if this is the case the current valuation is still bonkers. If you assume the need another 30m to see them through to breakeven, bigger field force etc etc to buy them another 18 months (mid 2024) and imagine they would pay an AIM tariff of 10%, then the cost of 3m a year is still peanuts in the context of the above.

So we are left with execution risk on delivery of 1-2% MS and here I believe it's all about the team. This is a drug company with no regulatory risk in the SP and IP protection till 2035. The team has been renewed with a CEO who has done it before in exactly the same field, is well connected and is well incentivised to succeed. He has 1m bucks on the SP being 57p by next June. New US based NEDs with relevant experience, a reasonably new Chairman who has spent his own cash to money to buy in and major investors who seeded the start-up looking for a return. In that final regard the risk in my mind is gets sold to cheaply. I'm not sure we could as for more form a micro cap.

If I add all of this together I think I should buy more. Be greedy etc etc. When I look at other pharma start ups ( I am thinking about at SNG with a 400m mkt cap and no regulatory approvals) there is no logic for STX at this level. I am sure this will be volatile until their cashflows become recurring and rising linearly. But isn't todays price a bargain?

Feel free to tell me why I am wrong.