Member Info for redwineday

Interesting to note the read across from 2019 to 2021 in revenue and profit. Rev up 20m, profit up 10m.

I appreciate much is going on underneath to explain this, it is still an indication that when managed properly this company has a fantastic opportunity in its operating leverage. If it gets its revenue up, the profit goes up at an incremental level.

Very confident presentation and Q&A. Much changed from recent years...

You re might, apologies, calc in deed was rusty!

EV is 380m US!

Nevertheless still 18 months away from debt free should they wish

By my rusty calc EV here is now around 160m US, for a business that just threw off 122m FCF in 6 months.!!!

Cracking results. Another 70m reduction on net debt. At current rates the can be debt free in 1 year just as the debt repayment restrictions are lifted, then all of these interest payments also disappear.

Fantastic performance and SP is way way undervalued.

trading at 37p

Good chance

The Chairman owns 500k shares at 37p average. The CEO has 620k IIRC on the SP being 57 p by June plus 1m shares which vest on June 1 so he obviously has incentive to vest at the highest possible price. Christian Schweiger owns 5.5m shares.

If I were a director here, it would be thinking I'd be dammed if I would spend my money to bail out stupid PI's who react in the way they did. Not their job to offer PI's reasons to buy, we are all adults (well some of its are)!

Mucho patience required. I agree next 6 months could be frustrating. OTH 1 RNS attend of March saying they passed 10000 scripts will set a fire under this.

I thought today was a classic example of the market as a transfer mechanism for cash between those with patience and those who have just sold out at the what most likely will be close to the bottom.

That interview said to me that Rollings may indeed be the next CEO. Clearly still has an appetite for hands on stuff. And he has a classic car addition to feed....On the other hand he obviously has a finger in a lot of pies which may prevent him from an exec role. Who knows.

Whats for sure with him on the nomination committee who ever is next will be cut in the same image. Should be fireworks...

BTW the interviewer did remind me a lot of Big Keith from The Office :-))

guess they got the new hires for the same or less cost!

Per Rx the net to shield is $250, nowhere near £500 but nevertheless your point is right.

To get to Finncap number for the US in 2022 implies 32k Rx. Seems under called to me if the did 2500 in 2qtrs in 2021.

Greater awareness, more payer coverage etc etc.

Also imagine some stop losses successfully taken out at 30p

Some panic selling this morning and or PI's being mugged by the MMs.

The key message in this release is the signing on of 3 more insurance companies. Market coverage has increased by 50% since mid December. This is the big news.

Fincap 250p valuation assumes 8m rev in the US in 2022, or if my arithmetic is correct c32000 Rx. Doesn't look challenging off the back of 2500 till end of 2021. Awareness is up, payers are signed up. As I said its when not if.

I note Fincap suggesting 10m debt at YE 22

I question this. If they get the prescriptions up quickly they can slow the cash burn dramatically. Remember the margin is c 90%.

Secondly there is no way that they would raise cash at this level. If they need cash, debt raise is far more likely.

This is really a matter of when not if....

Looks good to me. Patient access numbers the big news, now at 60m!!

Payer coverage increased since last update in December, now covering 60 million commercial lives resulting from several additional contracts being executed including Cigna, Humana, and Highmark

Drifting day after day on small volume no doubt sold by nervous PIs and on no news

Logical but wearing at the same time.

Pointless post I suppose...

He should be able to feel plenty good by firing Budden!