Member Info for redwineday

Since the results the company has lost c90m of market cap. and shares traded have been the equivalent of 2% of the share total. This morning 100k worth of trades has taken another 14m off.

I can understand the points made about Sorrells health but on the other hand if this was a major concern to the market the volume would be far higher where as the price is being driven lower by tiny volume moves and also selling.

Painful thought is I'm afraid this isn't going to stop until the numbers start to show a clear line to non adjusted profits and margin sustained growth which will he the institutions back in.

To state the obvious the price will go up when there are more buyers than sellers.

The fundamental point here is Sorrell needs to give investors a reason to buy as the previous reasons have gone bye bye.

This was an organic and M&A growth story which has lost its M&A leaving only moderately better than market growth but still with the cost of previous M&A weighing it down. IMO it will come good but only when the adjusting amounts in the income statement disappears, sometime next year.

If Sorrell can come out at the HY and say the revised outlook is for break even by H2 then it’ll fly. Until IIs have that visibility the SP will languish and be pushed around.

He really needs to find us some good news.

All of that said it is only time. Once the payouts have finished this can generate 200m a year with the existing client base. 200m will get us to £4 and then the M&A can start again.

Would have thought it would be a blackout period for insiders prior to Q1 RNS. In 2021 it came on the 4th May. 22 Calendar was a mess due to accounting balls up.

700k worth of shares traded and 43m taken off the market cap. Sorrel must be sitting in Mayfair fuming...

Volatility in this share is like some junior AIM company. Algo trading is taking down on tiny volume. He needs to get the HF's off his back by pulling something out of the hat in Q1 to quieten things down and get the market thinking about fundamentals rather than a day trader share.

Sami was clearly a b**sh** merchant. Alfonso should also be gone and I assume he will be shortly.

A CFO who sequentially (too many to count) misses risks of this magnitude is worse than useless to the new CEO.

They may be to extend the refinancing but at what cost. Cost of borrowing will have increased exponentially since last year.

What a mess this company is. The CFO should be fired and the new CEO had better be the smartest guy in the room. Even if they secure the mythical new UAE contracts they will have a debt hangover for years.

Sorrell said on CNBC this morning he expected 2024 growth to be similar to 2023. If the adjusted items is cleared out by 2024 then by my (likely) dodgy math eps should be around 22p per share in 2024. WPP trades on 15. S4 should be higher I suppose on a higher margin but even at 15 it gets you to 3.60 per share allowing for the higher share count in their presentation.

Even if you allow for my amateur number crunching this has to be worth £3 minimum by the end of the year.

Maybe they should chatGPT . I thought Wes slide on analyst opinion was very clever. I took it as a machine is as like to be as right as you. Not that you need AI to tell you that though!

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Excellent buying opportunity.

In their presentation deck it states 2023 adjusting items f/c at 150m vs 239m in 2022, so should mean 80m flowing to the bottom line in 2023. They lost 139m in 2022 (including all the dramas) so using the upper end margin and revenue in their guidance and assuming no dramas, perhaps they can get close to B/E. If you carry this forward into 2024 (CFO said the buy out payments were close to finished) you could be looking at 200m of profit next year and a SP back towards £4

So I'd wager he thinks he can get to the higher numbers in his guidance but is giving himself the room not to fail. .

I am more optimistic having had time to think about it and no-one should rely on my old casio and SP will probably sink on opening but if it does I'll be topping up. Patience should be rewarded here.

Should be profitable in 2024

If my math is correct, EV to sales here is slightly less than 1 and roughly the same as WPP. Publicis is 1.3, but they are very different animals in terms of size and profit. However as the buy outs wash out in 2024 then S4 should be relatively more profitable based on higher margins. So all in all I think current SP is about right and all other things being equal should start to improve in the second half of the year.

For me the issue is they are now hamstrung by no more acquisitions below a SP at 4.30 or the target company accepting 4.30 buy out level (which no-one is going to to do). For that momentum to return it will require the global economy to motor, which lets face it is a long way away. So my bet is this will march sideways for the next year, in line with the market although I fully expect it to fall on the opening tomorrow it should claw its way back based on the above.

If you believe in Sorrell then buy on the dips over the next year and be patient. Final point is I think he is being conservative. If I were him given the torrid time in 2022 he won't want to have that happen again so under promise and over deliver.

Very tiggerish!

Future SP growth also dependent on II reactions. Hopefully Rich is working on it. It would be good to see some well known money mangers turn up on the register.

Certainly interesting.

You must be great company on a night out...

Plain fact of the matter is carats sold is down, margin is down, profit has collapsed and FCF has fallen through the floor. On top the highwaymen in the gift of T are looting the diamonds (again) and RSA is a basket case. I think that they hope a white knight will appear on the basis of Cullinan, Duffy has said as much, but with these metrics all tanking I really doubt it.

Great post. Keep em coming…

He will surely be bullish, its what he was hired for so I can't see it being anything other than positive when it comes to SP.

A couple of 400ct stones?

This is a dumpster fire. Cash running down,,market stalling, lack of large finds future need for capex to go underground, capex required to keep the lights on, literally, and let me be kind, a lack of transparency in management.

Avoid unless you are betting on there is a big diamond around the corner.