Member Info for redwineday

@JAdams5000

Morning. Going back to my question about Odey, thanks for looking up the filings. Very useful!.

I'm wondering though if it was a related Odey holding that was doing the dumping. Maybe Brook AM? Just seems a bit co-incidental that the Liquidnet selling seemed to start or at least accelerate around the same time. Someone clearly wanted out of these at speed and logically that points to someone that needed cash pdq.

BTW noticed that Odey was a buyer of S4 in 2022 and a seller in the same year although only seemed to be around 1.2m

Doubt we will see anything now before end Aug beginning Sep. Last year H1 result was Sep. Jun announcement was due to late publication of 2021 results. Lets see what the AGM brings this pm.

Pre AGM trading update would be good although that more in hope than expectation. Since TW STX have never been that sharp at selling themselves to the market...

Went from 111 to 246 between June 2022 and Feb 2 2023. Feb 6 RNS on SMS health and has fallen since then.

We are rightly looking at the financials but the other news here is on SMS health/succession plan. If one thinks since Feb we are 6 months closer to B/E, BB announcement, cash return to shareholders priority and visibility on earn outs completed. Promise to return to margin growth, etc etc. So the thing holding this back in comparison to the others is SMS health.

Starting to feel like a bottom. Yesterdays volume was 36% higher than the daily average and it closed flat. So there are buyers to mop up the seller in largish volumes. I suppose thats good news!

I'll bite. Me...

So much for capital preservation. I don't understand how the performance is so poor when the managers were blowing about how the were so invested into inflation linked bonds. Usual fund management industry bs...

Numbers are indeed impressive.

Gittins 30m mid term ambition doesn’t see, so ambitious in the comparison although I suspect he’ll get there quite quickly.

All this good news but still can't hold above 40p!

Wonder if this was an Odey holding?

Let's hope he doubles his money!

Thanks, it explains the little tick up here today.

Some positive news events can cause this to double in days. It has done so in the past.

So far this morning 400k worth of trades and 23m off market cap. This is the life of a SP when it gets into the HF algorithm trading.

There was an AGM last week. He said he believes is undervalued. What more can he say?

If you think its cheap buy more, if you think it will fall further buy...

You can attend via interweb

It's a very easy trade for the algos. Momentum is driving it down. Needs news to change the direction.

Great thread!

I think the Hardman 34 effective reps number is low. In the RNS of April STX stated 98 reps on the pay roll by mid May. They had 30 as at Feb 1. Obviously you need to factor in the ramp up rate of the effectiveness (however they calculate that) but assuming 34 over the whole quarter seems low.

I too will attend the AGM. Of course they cannot make market moving announcements unless there is an RNS beforehand I think we should be able to make judgement based on what they do or don't say and their confidence.

Maybe they’ll mount a takeover.

I’d already thought about this. Say a 50% premium to todays price would cost 550m ish. Wouldn’t have thought it would be too much for SMS to raise particularly if check out where his sons are working.

Issue would be the debt load at least this year but the year after it would be doable I’m sure. Hopefully the price will have recovered by then though!

Apparently not anytime soon

Depends on how the others are doing!

If 668 is the average for the 16 that STX carried into the new team the thats 10688 assuming the full quarter. Hardman estimated 16.75k RX for the quarter from "average number of effective 34 reps or 492 per rep. If their hiring and training is going better than plan it could even be netter. But it does look its there or thereabouts.

H2 is lot more challenging on the ramp up though as they need to double in Q3 vs Q2 and then again Q3 to Q4. Q4 at about 800 per rep in total.

What would be great is if the burst the net in Q2 and then H2 would look more comfortable and this will fly....