Member Info for redwineday

*10m a year interest costs, obvs

Certainly seems their is an effort to stop it from breaking through 40p which irratatingly is my b/e point.

Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a bid here in the coming months as the mortgage drama starts to abate. Looks cheap as chips on a forward PE basis and only going to look cheaper as time progresses.

At todays price an offer of 50% premium would be a take out 180m. lets say the buyer has to borrow 100 at 10% is 10m a year for a business that will soon be earning 30m or 20m net. On a PE of 15x gives you a value of 300m makeing you a return of 120m on your initial investment of 80.

All of these ups and downs making me feel a bit squeamish

PE?

120m market cap, no debt so they can load up, 20m profit per year easily next year, 30m in the next couple of years. Sounds like a PE wet dream...

Mr Market gives it a complete meh...

Not bad considering the current UK mess.

Looks to me like a £15m PBT on a FY basis and close to 5p eps. So even at a miserly 10x gets us to 50p and on a more positive forward outlook at ye would get you to 75p.

They would never be able to raise the debt required and even if they could imagine what it would cost to service. I think he is as stuck as LTH are.

Truth is the only way he can sort this is to get the house under control, do what he says he will do, which in the past year he has most definitely not, get a succession plan in place and then deliver.

I thought the same thing 5 years ago. I hope your timing is better than mine.

Sorrell certainly needs to take a share of the blame In the last year the there have been 3 downgrades and an accounting mess. It looks like a lack of grip.

Until stability os evident and the trading updates start showing an upside SP getting kicked around like the spotty kid in the local primary school.

Sorrell owns 54m shares. Every penny move affects his wealth by 540k. I would take a wild guess and say he is more interested in the SP than his salary.

Maybe you should check Google before posting rubbish.

Numis dropped TP to 160 yesterday

I think you are right. Looks like they kept the % stable between Jan and May, so could be now selling their take up chunk. Well know soon enough if they are finished!

Not sure what your on about buddy but yesterdays TR1 shows them at 34m so they sold 3m in the last couple of days.

Jupiter according to the RNS of May 4 had just over 37m shares at that time.

NigeCo

Thanks for posting this. Where are these from and do you know if they are a blend including all updates? My back of the envelope numbers are around 10m less in EBITDA (taking the midpoint in the % forecast yesterday for net rev and margin).

Anyway these numbers do put into perspective yesterdays over the top fall.

Fascinating insight....

Still selling. This will take us back to where we started!

Clearly they have an issue with forecasting. The last forecast was barely more than a month ago. The fact the didn’t adjust then says something. If there is one thing that can shred a reputation of management it’s poor forecasting. This company even at todays forecast with still generate 130m of adjusted EBITDA. The issue is it’s at todays forecast. SMS really needs to get a grip on this.

This SP is like bitcoin…

Yes at some point you would expect some tipping point to be reached where sales are driven by the prescribers rather than the sales teams. I guess Shield will have an idea how many regular prescribers they need t get to that point and when that is likely.