Member Info for redwineday

Down even more this morning mate. I share your pain. I think this is heading to single digits.

Gils “optimistic” outlook has come home to roost.

Don't understand why you would be selling this morning after a 35% price drop in 2 days and on the back of this mornings trading update? it makes zero sense to me, but I'm first to admit there is much in this world I do not understand. Presumably these are PI's who have bought in the last weeks run up and are now bailing at the lows.

By my calculation the dilution including the new warrants is c12% so price move vs pre corrupt trading looks overdone

meanwhile in the results themselves there is lots of good news in the sales rate, NY and California market access and number of docs rewriting prescriptions. They have momentum and to my mind the rest is noise

"I am an accountant JAddams. You are reading the net net line of 42m and conveniently ignoring the line literally direct above that says end period net cash 240m…. Weird how you can’t minus one number from another but claim to be able to read financial statements."

Thank f you're not doing my books lol

I am as critical as anyone over the self injuries committed here over the past 18 months however to be fair I would imagine Sorrell is thinking very hard about how to proceed given that heis personally down 50m since July and 90m in the past year.

For sure the punters are placing their bets for Thursday but I'm not convinced they will give too much away. The quarter isn't finished so at most they can only update on 2 months and if I were them I wouldn't want to be giving a running commentary on each months sales. So my expectation is a holding statement with a Q3 update in November.

Despite being down a ton already, I'm really tempted to pile in. The price just seems crazy to me. 100+ of EBITDA so just over 3 times earnings, something like 40% of sales. The industry trades at 10x and thats in todays market/economy. Granted I'll need to hold for a couple of years but at this price its surely now a multi bagger.

At any cost it seems

Perhaps it's JHI offloading their ECO stake. I had a quick look but don't see any lock up tie periods mentioned in the original announcement. In any event someone is getting out. When one looks at the fund raising over the last years there will be a lot of II's who must seriously pi**ed off with the lack of action.

Its quite

All the discussion about neighbouring blocks, farm ins etc etc but meanwhile the SP continues to disappear down the tubes.

Thanks for popping in to let us know. Much appreciated.

It's pretty balanced. Nothing we don't know.

I appreciated the fact he said they had shot themselves in the foot several times, so at least he acknowledges management responsibility. That said he did it again this week so the self injury continues!

It'll be a long road back but when he economy picks up it'll recover. There are lot of execs here with a stake in this getting to 4.25 asap.

Down 64% since July, SAA with 1/3 of the revenue down 7%. Macro environment is the same, in fact you could argue it's better for S4 given the weight of US business and tanking GBP Vs USD. The only explanation ins y mind is the market has more trust in the sharp suits in Soho than it does SMS. Must be killing his ego which as as an unhappy shareholder gives some comfort. Lets see if he still has the smarts to get himself and the shareholders out of this hole.

NIgCo

NAV means nothing in a business like this. Lat time I looked they gad 720m of goodwill on the books so the level of tangible assets is a fraction of that.

I'm not saying the business is worth less, indeed on the basis of future cashflows its worth a lot more but my issue is the market will only increase the valuation when Sorrell starts doing what he says he will do. Frankly since the accounting farce every quarter something has gone wrong. His forecasting has been lamentable irrespective of the macro picture. Thats why it dropped 27% this week, nothing to do with the fundamental worth of the business. He needs to get this sorted but so far has shown zero ability to do so.

Down 27%. Don't worry though Marty says its an over reaction so all good.

To that I would also add 2 things

Get your communication strategy sorted. Eg, divis, buyback, sale and margin forecast reference points. Everything is currently messaged all over the shop

Secondly, lay out the succession plan. If you cant go on forever and you are at an age when this day gets increasingly closer (spoiler alert, none of us can) then the market needs to have an idea of what comes next for leadership.

Sorrell has dropped the ball twice imho. Once over the accounting debacle and then over his managementsforecasting. He is long enough in the tooth to know that you are only allowed one forecast revision but 3? He should have been super cautious in the last one so that this one was not needed. Take the pain once. This signals that the management have lost visibility on what they can deliver. I thought on this mornings call he came over as very defensive when asked about the numbers. What did he expect!

All of that said, the market reaction and current cap is nonsensical. Just goes t show how trust can be lost in an instant.

Hmmm

I think you need to be careful. If he actually means Q3 to date , that is July & August then maybe 50% is ok, just. if he is projecting forward then is 50% good? In the context of what they need to achieve in the Q to maintain the trajectory for the full year then I'm not so sure.

Fact is, given the other variables, expanded effectiveness of field force being the primary one I don't think you can take 1 reps numbers as being indicative of whether they are on track or not. There are too many moving parts at and individual level.

Share price forecast in GBX

The 8 analysts offering 12 month price targets for S4 Capital PLC have a median target of 205.00, with a high estimate of 325.00 and a low estimate of 160.00. The median estimate represents a 113.21% increase from the last price of 96.15.