Member Info for redwineday

Can see this at 5p before the seller is out. But...will rocket if previously forecast RX drops.

Auson

You think there is a link between financial journos and city wide boys?

I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!

Don't know what you are looking at mate but Yahoo shows 4.46m shares traded yesterday

Non adjusted, so net profit. I took a 20% hit to net rev in Q4, applied 10% margin to the FY net rev and then deducted the adjustments the forecast in the Q3 presentation. That takes you to a small net loss.

Obviously all my own workings and therefore likely way out!

I mean 4m shares is still significantly higher than normal.

What I find strange is how that high a level of stock share can change hands at no significant price variation. Could be the MMs have been gathering stock to fill those large late reported trades?

*don't grow the business

I should also say that assume s a 10% margin. At 15% margin its worth a lot more

Correct.

Sp should be based on valuation, at least that would be a rational way to look at it rather than hysterical. Of course the valuation is open to interpretation and preference..

The way I see it, at least today is they will like post a small loss this year after adjustments. We know the adjustments for 2024 will be largely gone. Even if they don throw the business at all in 2024, then this should be around 1bn market cap on a forward basis.

They need to prove they have the business under control before the SP can improve

I think there's something wrong with their data.

If you click on the graph it shows 1.4m odd up until the close, I guess the after close reporting is not shown but even then its 4m shares.

Nige

Absolutely correct. I suppose SMS knows this well. What staggers me is why he seems incapable of delivering it. The market is the market but a business controls its own costs. Continuous schoolboy errors from a 79 year old!

Apologies for error strewn typing on previous post btw. iPhone rage.

I should also say I think taking it private is not so easy.

Business is carrying 220m of debt. Roughly 50% of stock is held by insiders. To buy out the other 50% say at £1 per share (cant see the insti's selling for that but anyway for purposes of this say £1) would cost 300m. So 520m worth of debt. Can this business rise this amount of money? I doubt it and if they can they'll be paying 10% plus. This also spumes non of the insiders sell. Don't see it.

The issue here is confidence (repeated shooting own foot) and margins not the need for cash.

Auson

He's not as wealthy as he was. Every penny drop costs him c 5.5m so since July alone he is down 55m.. He is extremely well incentivised, as are all of the insiders, to get the SP up. Part of my rationale for hanging on here was this, although it's difficult on a day like this to think I was right.

Just cant imagine a PE bid here. SMS has a blocking share and the insiders effectively control the company so why would the sell out to PE for less than they themselves paid.

I think the more like scenario is he stays and manages it out or alternatively if things are not getting better by say the middle of next year the other insiders will tell him its time. He can move to non exec chairman with some dignity intact and appoint a new CEO.

Looks to me like they are dumping around 500-700k per day so if this is up to date, it must be a few reporting days out at least we have another month or so to go assuming the are selling out completely.

Bigger question is why they would sell out at 6p!

I sincerely hope he is feeling the heat. Management of the P&L has been shocking.

I keep thinking this cant get worse and it keeps getting worse.

Frankie

Share count has gone up sine then and if they took up their rights it could be still as high as 32m. You're right under 5% there is no TR1 required.

Anyway it certainly looks like them and whatever level they are currently at there is still away to go if they are out.

Not sure how often STX update their shareholder page but we should be able to tell from that over the next few weeks.

I think you're right Spindok

On the STX website Jupiter are shown holding 3. 9%. In May they owned 6.3%. The dilution the suffered between the 2 points in time by my calc is 25% so if I'm right, they have offloaded around 8m shares.

Question is, if it is them there could be another 32m to come

Brutal commentary this morning on SMS. Writer must be a holder here as sentiment chimes.

Give us a clue then!

Just in your Hardman point I seem to remember them pumping this at 50p with a valuation at close to £2 so their "analysis" is about as useful and accurate as mine.

% proportion is still small so it takes a lot of sells to trigger a notice.

Could be an inst who took up the last offer and then wants to manage back down to the original exposure? Who knows!

Thanks Frankie, very interesting.