Member Info for redwineday

Heading back to 40p methinks, no momentum.

The ads for posting this Nige.

Question that strikes me is it looks like the major shareholders and even PI's through HL and ii are buying rather than selling. So can we conclude that the price is being held down by shorts?

Lol. Glad you still have a sense of humour mate. It'll get better.....eventually!

Yep, 52 week high and getting to touching distance of last asset valuation. So from this point you have to believe the asset values will start increasing and given the way the UK economy is heading I cant see that anytime soon. To me this now looks like a fair valuation.

If it's Jupiter I dont think they are obliged to issue the TR1. The were diluted to under 5 in the fund raise and must have sold more to get down to the 3.9 without a TR1, so presumably there is no requirement for them to issue another TR1 on a lower holding.

Question then would be if it is them, then Shield don't know they have sold, which I would also find difficult to believe.

i don't blame them though. i blame myself for thinking sms could professionally manage a large company but the continuously downgraded and missed forecasts suggests otherwise. i blame myself for not selling out after the first **** up.

i have no idea what his strategy is now. each results call brings more confusion.

what would be a good start, indeed the only thing we can hope is for him to deliver what he said he would. until then this is at the mercy of traders.

Shield have updated the website and the Jupiter holding is showing unchanged as is the other major holders.

So who the **** is the seller?

If the seller is Jupiter then they must be close to finished by now. They held 30m shares at the last reported date of Nov 10. We'll know soon enough as I would hope the SP will bounce on the seller exiting plus STX will at some point update their website.

Clearing the way for capital returns?

Yes I agree, all assuming the sales trajectory remains on track. Caveat is they have very little room for error so any stumbles will up the amount of cash required wherever it's coming from.

On the other hand I could see a situation if its going well they could come back and say we see more opportunity to increase market share if we invest more, for example double up the amount of reps, but we need more cash.

Either way I still think it'll be taken over before Viatris need to fork out their milestone payments in 2025. At that point we could see a bidding contest as I doubt whether Nestle would be happy to take big hit on their investment.

If they can deliver Q4 2023 in line and then do the same in H1 2024 then I think we are looking at an SP well north of here.

STX for sure will require more capital at some point. Question is at what SP (which is dependant on the sales trajectory) or more likely whether they will be taken out before then, which to me seems like just a question of time and the price that the majority shareholder is ready to accept.

I really do wish they would foxtrot oscar.

Good news is of buyer(s) mopping them up. Augurs well for when they eventually do finish.

Surely a good buying opportunity

That would be nice!

Be interesting to see of the seller gets stuck in here in here today. Watch out for big lumps going through...

Not bad. Missed the Hardman number by 700 RX in the q or roughly 2 days worth of sales. I take that as being on track and really nice to say a significant 24% uplift in price Vs H1.

Its good enough for me to top up here.

In the first 12 minutes after the opening this morning around 100k shares were traded and the price was dropped by 3p or 6% or 16m worth of market cap. I am a mere PI and don't' pretend to understand the intricate mechanics involved but no-one will convince me that this is a market balancing between buyers and sellers. In smaller stocks The LSE is a rigged Casino.

Some chunky buying this open. I would have thought the seller would be leaning into the buys. Interesting....

Just looking at the info on this site it seems with his latest buy his average holding cost is now 11p.

Anyway answering my own question he knows what he knows so this purchase is definitely positive.