Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Governments are now stopping QE and starting QT. US, Europe and here are all trying to stop inflation. The effect is showing up with commodities, copper, gold. FTSE, stocks. It could be the start of a period of stagflation. Stop QE and increase interest rates slowing down economy. To much we head into a recession. Governments then drop interest rates and start up QE restarting inflation. Repeat and up and down the economy goes. Watching what the governments do is key.
Simple calc: 20moz means the total value of the resource is $36 billion, gold @1800. Add 20% for copper that gives us a resource of $40 billion. This means GGP 25% is worth $10 billion. Sets cost and ASIC at %50 then Havieron is worth $5 billion. All very rough calculations but it underlines that GGP is worth more than 20p a share. Need tp see how far along the decline we have gone. When will the next update for the decline be.
Not impressed with the current SP. The fact NCM is digging 24/7 gives me confidence I will get back what I paid back. So being patient makes sense. Reading others takes on economics, I have now started following many on line all connected with a macro economic view.
For a simple conceptual economic model try Ray Dalio:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
As for the current situation, as governments try to fight inflation they will increase interest rates, This slows the economy. This should have a negative affect on commodities. You can see why shorters are shorting commodities, including us.
Idea of what may be happening read this guys thread,
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1539655411737194497
So much to learn and so much out there.
Looking at Paddies tweet:
https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1521442356343586816/photo/1
It probably has been stated before but I am bored on this board so will restate what maybe obvious.
HAD029 seems to pass between the Crescent Deeps and Eastern Breccia. This suggest that these 2 sections are linked. HAD093 and HAD101 show a link between the Northern Breccia and Eastern Breccia. All this is seriously increasing ore volumes.
We just need the decline to speed up.
Until a firm date for mining is on the horizon the share price will just bobble. A new find would help. The institutions will not put in big money for it just to sit doing nothing. They would rather their money sat in a their bank account doing nothing than buying a share doing nothing.
The lassonde curve is a generalization.
Naylor maybe.
Personally It is drifting downwards following the lassonde curve. After peaking it has drifted downwards. No real buying pressure. Personally we have bottomed. It could get lower depending on economic factors. For me I should have invested now. For an investment strategy trying to find miners at the bottom of the lassonde curve is a good investment idea. You can see the gold and the investment to extract it. It is just waiting for the big money to start investing.
CostaMoney.
The amount the institutions have invested is small change. A few early day explorer and high risk mining funds. The big money will come when they see a company that can deliver growth and income. IMHO, that will happen when they see gold production is close. A year maybe, my guess. The experts in the institutions that manage the exploration, mining funds, will tell these companies when they should increase their investments. Until they put their money in the SP price will not rise. They have no need to rush when it will be their money that sets the SP.
A major new find could cause a jump. The decline increasing giving an accurate date for reaching the ore body will increase the SP. Other than that we will drift.
Paddy,
The reason for the price current SP. The institutions will not start putting money in until they see a concrete time line. Maybe reaching ore body within a year. The decline needs to start accelerating. They would rather keep their money elsewhere. Last thing they want is money trapped in a share. The institutions know that until their money arrives the share price is going no where. They have no need to panic.
Does anyone understand the 5% issue? I assumed that the 5% would be the based on the gold resources, inferred and indicated with a sum of money for the mines future potential. Even if there is a cut off date I am certain a section of the 5% will be based on the mines future potential. So every find after this date adds to this future potential.
Have I got this correct?