Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Afternoon all, I noticed that an updated Shareholder Analysis has been posted on the website. I'm having trouble reconciling this with the current 825M shares in issue, so out of interest I checked back through the available RNS's to the date of the acquisition MOU with Moroccan Salts Limited ( MSL ) and their associates Starboard Capital ( a Venture Capital Company ) in 2017. Starboard claimed to have " incubated" the Khemisset Project with MSL since 2014 and Robert Wrixen was a Director of both Companies. At the time of the transaction and subsequent re-admission of EML to the LSE in June 2018, the enlarged Share Capital was quoted as ~ 626M, but I can't find a breakdown of the Shareholders at that time, and no mention of Starboard Capital since. Do any of the LTH's here have any info?, do Starboard still have an interest in EML, their webite mentions it as an investment.
Afternoon all,
Agreed westie, enjoying the discussion with valid points all round. Looking at the Capex required for Phase1 to get us into production ( $ 286.9M ), assuming the Debt lenders provide 70% ( $201M ), we need to raise the balance ~$ 86M through Equity. My view is this would come from a combination of :- $20M strategic ( Greenstone or such), $50m pre-paid MOP offtake ( OCP), $10M Royalty (?) and $10m from the Market. This means any increase in SP before then would reduce the dilution. As the construction/commissioning is quoted as ~2 years, I don't see how Revenue would self finance Phase 2, if it starts immediately on completion of phase 1. This is when I expect OCP to step up their financial involvement, both in increased offtake contribution and SOP development in phase 3. There is obviously a lot of work being done, trying to pull this all together, and at this stage the final level of dilution depends on several factors and timings, but an interesting few months in the offing which will require the combined experiences of the BOD to achieve.
Afternoon all,
Largo Resources are reporting that the current plant expansion will be completed by end Q2, raising output to over 13000 tons V2O5 per year and the introduction of vanadium Electrolyte production in Q3, for anyone interested latest Presentation :- https://s27.q4cdn.com/288457300/files/doc_presentations/2021/April/LGO_Corporate-Presentation_Apr.pdf
Afternoon all,
Hi Cbax, rest assured the BOD here are aware of BB's such as this, but be under no illusion, the interests of Private Investors such as us are not at the forefront of their decision making. They will take whatever decisions are required to achieve their goals. That is not to say that they would disregard the interests of their Shareholders and a good credible BOD will use the flexibility of AIM to the Company's advantage in the forthcoming Financing process. I believe OCP will take a major stake in EML and being 95% owned by the Moroccan Govt., they can greatly assist our speedy development through the 4 stages to full production. My view is that if they had ambitions to take EML out completely it would have been done by now, as Financing and Permitting is not a problem for them. A lot of info can be gleaned from the recent Phased Development Review RNS and comments made by GC in interviews, so don't just take BB comments as gospel ( me included), I still have un-answered questions/concerns about the development targets and timescales but I still have confidence in this BOD to deliver until proven otherwise.
Hi pgtips1990,
From the Ebitda figures figures quoted in the review and the 61% Ebitda margin quoted in the 2020FS, I worked the assumed Potash SP to be around U$300 per ton ( delivered Morocco ), for my own modelling, but I stress I'm no Financial expert, hope this helps you.
Afternoon all,
Excellent development plan and imo more achievable than the original FS. As previously stated, Phases1&2 get us to the FS steady state production levels of MOP and de-icing salt. Expansion Phases 3 & 4 take this Project to over 1 Mtpa of MOP production ( 205ktpa converted to SOP ), 4 mtpa salt and 240ktpa SOP production. This will give us a very different outcome than the FS outlined, albeit at a higher Capex, but as stated, later Phases are likely to be financed out of cashfows.
I would guess that the Financing outcomes are likely to determine the timescales on the developments, as the extra $290M Capex needed to complete all Phases would be difficult to fund purely form cashflow alone, in a reasonable timescale. However, to my mind this is a positive step forward, looking forward to more info over the coming months.
Afternoon all,
I have to agree with your observations bluepalace, whilst their aims are laudable, financing the project at such a level, would need bigger pockets. With regards to the LSE interview, It is worth remembering that GC is an experienced Mining Engineer and Project Operator, not a "slick" trained presenter, so personal characteristics on camera do not bother me, I much prefer that he is credible and honest within the limits of what he is allowed to say. I quite liked Charles Vaughn, he came across as no nonsense and straight forward. The sooner that the Project review outcome is released the better as far as I'm concerned, as it will give a definitive way forward, but it may well be combined with Financing outcomes in Q2.
Thanks for the link westie, I'm going to have a listen.
Morning all,
Following receipt of the Installation Licence at end of January, construction of PNP 1000 plant ( Phase 1 ) commenced, expected to finish and commissioned in Q1 2022. First saleable Ni/Co mixed hydroxide product anticipated in Q2. Offtake discussions underway ( Japan, US, and Europe ). For anyone interested, there is a good video on their website :-
https://www.braziliannickel.com/
Evening all,
AudibleEnergy, you are correct that OCP are focused on developing their in-house operations. however, the Moroccan Govt., their 95% shareholder has the wider ambition to develop and diversify the Processing capabilities in-Country. OCP are Phosphate rock miners and Phosphate Fertilizer producers, they are not MOP producers, which is why they currently import all their Mop ( Potassium) requirements. Graham Clarke again re-iterated that our MOP is likely to be sold in Morocco, so an offtake agreement with OCP seems inevitable. This may involve buying into EML to assist development, and as bluepalace points out, it would be in both parties interests to do so, particuarly as they have what we need to produce SOP, and could extend our mine life by either JV-ing their exploration licences next to our resources, or takeover of EML further down the track - a win/win for us investors at this stage.
Afternoon AudibleEnergy,The Moroccan Govt., do indeed own 95% of OCP. With a revenue turnover of ~ U$ 5.6Billion in 2019, and a Development Strategy to invest U$20Billion by 2027 in predominantly Moroccan based Mining and Processing capacity, ( especially on export related Products). I don't see funding being an issue for them as far as Emmerson are concerned. They do have well stated investment criteria, but from what I know about our " Doing the right thing at the right time " ethics to building and operating the Project, imo, we should fit nicely with their requirements. They do need the Potassium contained in the MOP, to enable them to manufacture their range of customized Fertilizers across Africa. Using " home sourced " Mop at a competitive price would assist their aims, and they could also include SOP in their portfolio at a later date. The best advice I can give you, would be to visit the OCP website as this will give a fuller insight into that organization. Hope this helps with your query.
Afternoon all,
I haven't seen the Presentation yet, but the intention to sell MOP in country (remembering that we will need to retain 25% for SOP production each year ), should still be financially beneficial to EML, even if a nominal discount to current CIF contract rate is agreed with OCP. Equally important in the overall development of the Company, is the financial and regulatory support offered by the Moroccan Govt., and manufacturing support made available at the Jorf Lasfar Industrial site by OCP.
I still expect that the initial development Phase1, will include ramp/declines construction through the "de-icing salt" layers before reacing potash resource. To monetize the extracted salt would also need $24m capex spent on building a processing plant, but would give us near term revenue. I wouldn't be surprised to see an early smaller strategic investment from someone such as Greenstone to assist with this. IF OCP were to come onboard, my view is that it is likely to happen as part of the Equity portion of the main Financing stage. A lot of course will depend on the outcome of the " phased Development Review" currently underway. I agree with the general sentiment, that this will not be long until market release, so anyone aiming to be a LTH should get to their positions as soon as possible. This is not meant as advice, just my own personal observations.
Morning all,
Thanks for the link westie, having read it, I think the African Free Trade agreement announced Jan., 2021 will help our development and generally stimulate Fertilizer across the Continent, especially in countries with the potash, nitrogen phosphate rock and natural gas resources needed for production. With regards to our friends in the Republic of Congo, their RNS today referred to setting up an MOU with an advisory consortium on ways of funding their larger project, aiming to reduce the Capex to $1.6Billion, following pressure from the Govt.,to get things moving on it rather than persuing their smaller starter project Capex $2-300M. To do this by Debt & Royalty alone will take some doing without sacrificing significant revenue. I much prefer our Debt/equity route, bringing on-board Strategic investors who hopefully can also contribute to our development further down the road. As previously mentioned by GC, the real value in these projects is only seen when they get built and are operating.
Hi SlurmsMcKenzie, my guess would be ADM ( Archer-Daniels Midland Corporation), who have HQ in Chicago but are also active all across S.America . They are very similar to OCP in that they offer many services to the Agriculture sector :- customized fertilisers, nutrients etc., as well as a range of other farm services. Like OCP they have high trading integrity / environmental principles, which guide their activities. I noticed from the RNS you posted that their exclusivity period expired 30/9/2019, so they may no longer be interested. If I remember rightly, they concluded a trading agreement with Sirius Minerals (as was) for their Polyhalite product, when it eventually is produced (2025?).
Hi audible, thanks for the links. ICL ( Israeli Chemicals Ltd.) introduced their Potashplus and polysulphate blends into the market in an attempt to steal the thunder of the "new" Polyhalite product about to enter the market from their near neighbors Sirius minerals (Whitby, Yorkshire). Graham was CEO at ICL for a long time so would of course know them very well. It may well be that they have an interest in our MOP product, but I doubt that they have the other Brazilian exposure that ADM could offer. It will be interesting to watch this unfold.
Morning all, I watched the video and found that as previously, the presenters do not research the Companies covered fully, rather they rely on Company Presentations for their information. This has led to them getting negative responses on previous occasions from angry supporters of those Companies. In our video's case I thought the response by poster Stephen Psallidas was excellent, properly researched and put forward in a correct and polite manner, which reflects well on EML investors. One thing I picked up from the video, was a reference to a 15/04/19 RNS referring to an MOU agreement signed with an un-named global Fertilizer supplier, for 100% of Khemisset production. I had no knowledge of this so I've contacted the Company to ask for clarification, and also requested guidance on their source of Potash pricing, as I am unable to find a reliable quoted commodity listing for it on-line. It's not that I mistrust HL/GC references given in video updates, I just like to monitor these things myself. By the way, thanks for your summary views below westie , I agree with it and also the potential Financial and regulatory support available from the Moroccan Govt., and OCP involvement are game changers for me.
Morning all,
Thanks for the link Troajan, just bought in here and found it useful in building up my background knowledge.
Afternoon all,
Thank you for those links IFNI3000 they were very informative. Also thanks westie for the link to the 10/12/2019 RNS, which I hadn't seen before. It re-affirms my conviction in the potential for EML in Morocco, which appears very supportive of the Project both financially and regulatory. For me, this makes Phased financing a no-brainer, as we now have the Mining Licence approved, which triggers the Govt. Investment to be signed once the review details are finalized.
Hi Westie,
Trident are a relatively new Royalty Company ( last 12 months), who are trying to grow quickly to achieve critical mass. They probably would be interested in diversifying into Fertilizers, but I would prefer Altius or Anglo Pacific, who have more financial clout to invest a larger amount and have already developed "Green Portfolios", but I have to declare a bias as I'm invested in Anglo Pacific Royalty.
Afternoon all,
A good informative interview by Graham. He did mention seeking a near / mid term investor on board, which would reduce the main Capex Equity requirement, perhaps this is where early stage investment from Greenstone could come in. He also mentioned the potential markets on our doorstep in Africa, in my opinion this would be where OCP would get involved in the main Equity funding. Backed by the Moroccan Govt., OCP would be keen to support the " added value" Project Developments i.e., Sop production and increased salt and Mop exports and the benefits this would bring to the local areas, through employment, taxation etc. Hopefully news on the Environmental Permit, Phasing Review and early Strategic Investor will not be far away.