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"Maybe", "who knows"
Page 101 of the 2018 yearly accounts ,risk management. Factoring in a drop or growth of 10% for the pound versus the dollar we expect a 50 miilion loss or growth of the same amount
Always start at the bottom of a company accounts and work up because thats where all the good stuff is ,just ask mike ashley
Currency factors with the pound the pound the lowest in 2 years affecting returns as income is in AUS, EURO, US and UK also are pushing this down.
Looking at the indicators the williamsr% is scraping along the bottom ready to rebound to 1700 and the Chaikin money flow (shows institutional buys is flat so big sells)
A large sell of roughly 6 million shares on 25th july and 2 million on 26th july didnt help . The same entity sold exactly the same amount back in april in the share then started a large climb
Good luck, too much volatility/currency fluctuations for me.
Who knows amazing report and share is tanking. These are large sells by institutions to push it down.
Perhaps another placing is coming and institutional firms have got wind. A lot of individuals involved when this happens maybe something has leaked out..Who knows.
It needs to get out of aim and into the FTSE then at least it would be properly regulated..of course not saying that the aim market is dodgy at all or unregulated cos its not.
Reason people are shorting is that black cloud of woodford selling and flooding market or another placing. Just shows perfect results means nothing
You cant get better than these stella results and its down 5%!
Sais it all, what else can BUR do?
· Profit after tax up 36% to $225 million (1H18: $166 million); operating profit up 37% to $251 million (1H18: $183 million)
· Income up 40% to $287 million (1H18: $205 million); growth driven by 36% increase in income from investments to $265 million (1H18: $195 million)
· Cumulative returns on core litigation investment portfolio increased to a 98% return on invested capital net of losses (31-Dec-18: 85%) and an internal rate of return of 32% (31-Dec-18: 30%)
· Robust demand for Burford's capital reflected in record new investment commitments of $751 million, up 36% (1H18: $553 million), providing foundation for future growth
· Investment management income up 35%, with the SWF arrangement and Burford Opportunity Fund 25% and 63% committed, respectively; Burford Alternative Income Fund closed with $300 million in commitments
· Total assets up 37% to $2.25 billion (1H18: $1.64 billion); net assets up 64% to $1.57 billion (1H18: $953.7 million)
· 1H19 dividend of 4.17¢, 14% increase (1H18: 3.67¢), payable on 5 December 2019 to shareholders of record on 15 November 2019
Sold my BUR 1 year ago at 1800 after dipping in and out since 473p and now become disheartened with whole aim market.
Great company (I used to work in law)and yes results great, but SP over a year flat and SP down today sais it all
You got the massive grey cloud of a another placing- which Burford said would happen again in last results at some point (which happened very soon after results last year) and neil woodfords massive holding.
When woodford sells the price will tank (as market is flooded with more shares)
I invest in US markets now and made 77% return over 1 year.
Once a placing happens and Woodford sells then I may buy in as this is indervalued at least 2500-2800 a share
Good luck to all that still I wish you well
""The big question this year was whether 2017's explosive growth was a one-time anomaly. These results show that it was not. Burford has committed $2.6 billion to new investments in just the last two years, more than twice its lifetime cumulative commitment level prior to that time. That is extraordinary and suggests a sea change has occurred in the legal finance marketplace. We met that demand by raising incremental capital on our balance sheet and by making robust use of our new investment management business, including a ground-breaking deal with a sovereign wealth fund with very favourable terms. We also continued to grow so that we now field a team of more than 110, including 55 experienced lawyers, and we have by far the largest capital base in the business to the advantage of our clients and our investors. As we approach our tenth anniversary, we are excited to continue to lead legal finance into the future."
If Burford was a beer it would be "probably the most manipulated stock in the world".
The money makers are pushing this every way. Exactly the same thing happened last year before the results. Manipulate it up then crash it down, then results released. Look at the charts.
I got back in at 1850 after being stopped out before xmas
The business has not changed, the company has not changed, the staff have not changed. So why the volatility, the money makers want your shares..
The money makers are pushing it to stop people out so they can buy in before results on March 13th (guess)
Only Level 2 access will tell you who is manipulating this at the last time I looked it was 1 or 2 money makers playing with peoples money.
My point and figure chart (50 box size 3 point reversal) has it valued at 3100 which is 500 more than I suggested it would be at March 2019 back in November time.
Time will tell but don't let em win..
You will be fine...dont feel today bad.. I had 100k invested and lost 92k (pension)
2 lots of 20k invested at 22p and a 60k lump at 18p
I made 350k last year on tilray by careful /luck and investigation before it got in the press.So it was free money for me.
With flybe I listened to press and message boards and got carried away when I normally just limit to 20k a share and I didn't follow my strict rules of selling if it drops 8%
Im still up 150k from 6 months thanks to tilray ago but the screen shot of 81% drop for flybe will be printed and placed on my wall next to the Tilray one to remind me of my stupidity and it is possible to make money if I listen to my gut. (And not get carried away by message boards)
I learn by mistakes and this was a great learning curve for me. Thanks to all the rampers and derampers and anyone who posted on here as it has taught me a valuable lesson.
Just US stocks for me now and no message boards.Just stockopedia and real data and books
All the best and move on and upwards, plenty of companies out there for you to make money
It is possible to make money but slowly over years, greed and the human element I need to practice on as well as patience
Strange automatic buy at 16.24 of 10 shares at 1.62
16:24:23 10-Jan-2019 16.20 GBX 10 1.62 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
If the offer is 10p then something is fishy here. I hope they force sky to reveal the leaker as if this all true the institutions will dump before the market opens and we dont stand a chance
Looks like its around 11 Euros a share :) Gone for the same price as ryan air
Probably nothing ,yes one ticket you can fly from aberdeen with different airlines..Some nice advertising for virgin there from the soon to be gone Flybe COO
https://www.incentivetravel.co.uk/news/airportairline/46156-aberdeen-passengers-discover-flybe-is-well-connected-at-heathrow
“Passengers can also, for example, fly onwards with Virgin Atlantic to up to 17 worldwide destinations including Atlanta, Boston, Johannesburg, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Francisco and Shanghai. Or, fly east with Singapore Airlines – all on one ticket from Aberdeen.”
In the light of virgin in talks maybe he shouldnt have mentioned virgin at all as numpties like me get excited that the price will Rise to 60p or beyond...
30-40p max according to law and the takeover panel. Thats the price of the 1st bid. If others want to outbid and push up the price they have to be declared by law in the takeover panel on a an RNS. Thats whats gospel, not the papers. IAG or others are waiting for the 1st bid
https://www.slaughterandmay.com/media/39320/a-guide-to-takeovers-in-the-united-kingdom.pdf
"When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced"
Bookmark this site below
http://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/the-code/download-code
The following is a brief summary of some of the most important Rules:
When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained).
When interests in shares carrying 10% or more of the voting rights of a class have been acquired by an offeror (i.e. a bidder) in the offer period and the previous 12 months, the offer must include a cash alternative for all shareholders of that class at the highest price paid by the offeror in that period. Further, if an offeror acquires for cash any interest in shares during the offer period, a cash alternative must be made available at that price at least.
If the offeror acquires an interest in shares in an offeree company (i.e. a target) at a price higher than the value of the offer, the offer must be increased accordingly.
The offeree company must appoint a competent independent adviser whose advice on the financial terms of the offer must be made known to all the shareholders, together with the opinion of the board.
Favourable deals for selected shareholders are banned.
All shareholders must be given the same information.
Those issuing takeover circulars must include statements taking responsibility for the contents.
Profit forecasts, quantified financial benefits statements and asset valuations must be made to specified standards and must be reported on by professional advisers.
Misleading, inaccurate or unsubstantiated statements made in documents or to the media must be publicly corrected immediately.
Actions during the course of an offer by the offeree company which might frustrate the offer are generally prohibited unless shareholders approve these plans.
Stringent requirements are laid down for the disclosure of dealings in relevant securities during an offer.
Employees of both the offeror and the offeree company and the trustees of the offeree company’s pension scheme must be informed about an offer. In addition, the offeree company’s employee representatives and pension scheme trustees have the right to have a separate opinion on the effects of the offer on employment appended to the offeree board’s circular or published on a website.
November 14th Virgin made an offer as per the RNS on 14th put out by flybe and stating virgin are not tied to the 28 day rule
6th one down
https://www.investegate.co.uk/takeover-panel/rns/disclosure-table--potam-only-/201811280745217338I/
All offers need to be stated in the takeover panel, dont see IAG or Stobart or any others
Again on the 7th Dec- only 1 Potential - virgin
https://www.investegate.co.uk/takeover-panel/rns/disclosure-table--potam-only-/201812071715038832J/
OFFEREE: Flybe Group plc
Offer period commenced: 07:03 14-Nov-2018
1p ordinary
ISIN: GB00B4QMVR10
NSI: 216,656,776
OFFEROR: Virgin Atlantic Airways Limited
Offeror identified: 11:44 23-Nov-2018
Rule 2.6 deadline: N/A
Disclosure of dealings and positions in this offeror is not required
400+ pages on takeover panel
http://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/code.pdf?v=8Jan2018
Read the small print of the RNS on November 24th issue by flybe
"Virgin Atlantic WILL NOT be subject to the 28-day deadline referred to in Rule 2.6(a) of the Code for so long as it is participating in the formal sale process”
no idea when the clock ticks for the others involved but it will be around xmas time where markets and people will be away
Dec 24th is the deadline day or walk away
Taken from ft
“
From the day that a company announces it has received an approach, the new rules now impose an automatic “put up or shut up” (PUSU) – a 28-day deadline for a bid to be tabled.”
Taken from rns back on nov 24th that sais it all started on nov 14th
“As announced on 14 November 2018, the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Takeover Panel") has agreed that any discussions with third parties may be conducted within the context of a formal sale process. Accordingly, Virgin Atlantic WILL NOT be subject to the 28-day deadline referred to in Rule 2.6(a) of the Code for so long as it is participating in the formal sale process”
According to Rule 2.6 of the code, bidders will have until 5pm on the 28th day following the date it is first identified to announce a firm intention to make an offer or confirm whether it intends to make no offer.
https://www.marxist.com/britain-dark-clouds-ahead-for-flybe.htm
Lets hope they can sell and quickly and redeem themselves from the carillion cockup and many other disasters they have recently messed up and should have saved.
Whole FTSE is bleeding red not just flybe.. a tad bit of pressure the Pm is feeling.. With o2 data network down also it makes it easier not to look
I feel like william wallace with the english approaching ... HOLD, HOLD , HOLDDDDDD
This was my first 5 bagger I bought at 470 ish and sold out around 2000 and then totally at 1800
I have worked in law and yes its a blank cheque
What worries me is the placing which started the down turn. Yes you need money to grow but in the RNS they stated
that another placing would happen when market conditions allow it. I wish they would get it over and done with. Its making investors jittery.
Its a solid share but a cloud hanging over it. If the placing didnt happen a few month back it would be 2500 now
Point and figure charts give a rough figure of 1190. They have been right since the trending started at 1800. I would just hold even if it goes lower and be patient, thats the problem with law, months/years to get money for a case and retrials,etc,etc
I will pump back in 3-4 weeks results which should see a spike up 5-10%
Interesting post office and thomas cook and kier getting dumped from ftse
One day BUR will be there but will need to do a few placings first to grow and get it out the way
Brexit actually is good for lawyers, my firms (magic circle in london) had full books for 10 years
All those laws to he challenged,rewriiten and money lent to law firms (Thats what Bur does) off the balance sheet to fund cases
Law firms like litigation finance as its off the balance sheet money to fund a case. Different than a loan from a bank or If they lose they dont pay Burford, if they win burford take a cut.(a large one)
Most city good lawyers (partners, not associates) in the city are on £700 per hr +.
This maintenance contract with monarch looks messy
No idea if it will go anywhere or if either party would want to get involved in a lawsuit now
Some nice (i wish valuations) , i put in 20k at 20p then another 20k 22p and then 40k at 22p..alas all in a pension i cant touch
Was free money from Tilray canabis drug in sept that made me a whack... (I got out at the right time)If i lose it hey ho
I think flybe is nearly bust and the vultures will know this as well as the market men who (conspiracy theory here) are buying an astronomical amount and then selling them again on the same day and repeating each day..If you read the RNS buy and sell. I am assumed they are then shorted it to make extra money
Realistically I think 20-30p for first offer due to the amount of debt and the desperate need to sell.
I was comparing ryan air which is a lot lot larger and more profitable but share price is 11p and its making money
Ryan air
Fleet size
450
Destinations
225
11p per share
Flybe
Fleet size
78
Destinations
85
19p share price
Im really hoping it will go back up to 40p but I cant see it. Why is ryan air so cheap yet makes a ton of cash?
I think with the holiday period coming up this will drag on into the new year
as lawyers and forensic accountants go through everything
What is good is that i have learnt that if you cant afford to lose it never invest it..This takes away a lot of stress and also checking every 30 seconds whats happening
level 2 will help you if you can afford the £700 a year to show live buys and sells from ADVFV
Interesting opinion from a poster on stockopedia
"I've covered Flybe (LON:FLYB) in the past so I'll weigh in here.
Flybe (LON:FLYB) are in very serious trouble. With current liabilities exceeding current assets at 30th September, weaker than expected winter trading and December/January being the seasonal low for cash balances, if they hadn't done anything they were bust IMO. The credit card acquirers seeing the risk and demanding more collateral doesn't help of course.
By handing back the excess planes and rationalisation routes the company is finally starting to get the sort of load factors that they need to. However the cost saving per seat are only really starting to come in, and is too little too late. If they did this 2 years ago they would have the balance sheet strength to trade through current weakness. The lack of management grip on costs is a major failing here IMO.
The aircraft funding is mildly positive for the company though. Primarily because someone was willing to lend 80% of the value of a Q400. It shows that the value of the aircraft on the balance sheet isn't totally crazy, and it is the discount to NTAV that will attract any acquirer.
With £286.8m aircraft assets & £152.7m combined long-term and short term debt at 30th September, if they could borrow up to 80% then that would move £77m from short-term to long-term debt and their short-term outlook would look a lot better. It really depends on what existing lending covenants are to see if they can actually access further long-term debt form this source. £5m for a hangar and $5m is unlikely to cut it though so they need something else to survive IMO.
Although the aircraft funding deal is positive both from the ability to still access long-term debt and the read through to aircraft asset valuation, this is very much a punt not an investment at the moment given the risk of a total loss.
One thing that is interesting for those who do like a flutter though is that last time I looked IG were still offering controlled risk spread bets on Flybe (LON:FLYB) !"