Member Info for Redrichmond

https://www.marxist.com/britain-dark-clouds-ahead-for-flybe.htm

Lets hope they can sell and quickly and redeem themselves from the carillion cockup and many other disasters they have recently messed up and should have saved.

Whole FTSE is bleeding red not just flybe.. a tad bit of pressure the Pm is feeling.. With o2 data network down also it makes it easier not to look

I feel like william wallace with the english approaching ... HOLD, HOLD , HOLDDDDDD

This was my first 5 bagger I bought at 470 ish and sold out around 2000 and then totally at 1800

I have worked in law and yes its a blank cheque

What worries me is the placing which started the down turn. Yes you need money to grow but in the RNS they stated
that another placing would happen when market conditions allow it. I wish they would get it over and done with. Its making investors jittery.

Its a solid share but a cloud hanging over it. If the placing didnt happen a few month back it would be 2500 now

Point and figure charts give a rough figure of 1190. They have been right since the trending started at 1800. I would just hold even if it goes lower and be patient, thats the problem with law, months/years to get money for a case and retrials,etc,etc

I will pump back in 3-4 weeks results which should see a spike up 5-10%

Interesting post office and thomas cook and kier getting dumped from ftse

One day BUR will be there but will need to do a few placings first to grow and get it out the way

Brexit actually is good for lawyers, my firms (magic circle in london) had full books for 10 years

All those laws to he challenged,rewriiten and money lent to law firms (Thats what Bur does) off the balance sheet to fund cases

Law firms like litigation finance as its off the balance sheet money to fund a case. Different than a loan from a bank or If they lose they dont pay Burford, if they win burford take a cut.(a large one)

Most city good lawyers (partners, not associates) in the city are on £700 per hr +.

This maintenance contract with monarch looks messy

No idea if it will go anywhere or if either party would want to get involved in a lawsuit now

Some nice (i wish valuations) , i put in 20k at 20p then another 20k 22p and then 40k at 22p..alas all in a pension i cant touch

Was free money from Tilray canabis drug in sept that made me a whack... (I got out at the right time)If i lose it hey ho

I think flybe is nearly bust and the vultures will know this as well as the market men who (conspiracy theory here) are buying an astronomical amount and then selling them again on the same day and repeating each day..If you read the RNS buy and sell. I am assumed they are then shorted it to make extra money

Realistically I think 20-30p for first offer due to the amount of debt and the desperate need to sell.

I was comparing ryan air which is a lot lot larger and more profitable but share price is 11p and its making money

Ryan air
Fleet size
450
Destinations
225

11p per share

Flybe

Fleet size
78
Destinations
85

19p share price

Im really hoping it will go back up to 40p but I cant see it. Why is ryan air so cheap yet makes a ton of cash?

I think with the holiday period coming up this will drag on into the new year
as lawyers and forensic accountants go through everything

What is good is that i have learnt that if you cant afford to lose it never invest it..This takes away a lot of stress and also checking every 30 seconds whats happening

level 2 will help you if you can afford the £700 a year to show live buys and sells from ADVFV

Interesting opinion from a poster on stockopedia

"I've covered Flybe (LON:FLYB) in the past so I'll weigh in here.

Flybe (LON:FLYB) are in very serious trouble. With current liabilities exceeding current assets at 30th September, weaker than expected winter trading and December/January being the seasonal low for cash balances, if they hadn't done anything they were bust IMO. The credit card acquirers seeing the risk and demanding more collateral doesn't help of course.

By handing back the excess planes and rationalisation routes the company is finally starting to get the sort of load factors that they need to. However the cost saving per seat are only really starting to come in, and is too little too late. If they did this 2 years ago they would have the balance sheet strength to trade through current weakness. The lack of management grip on costs is a major failing here IMO.

The aircraft funding is mildly positive for the company though. Primarily because someone was willing to lend 80% of the value of a Q400. It shows that the value of the aircraft on the balance sheet isn't totally crazy, and it is the discount to NTAV that will attract any acquirer.

With £286.8m aircraft assets & £152.7m combined long-term and short term debt at 30th September, if they could borrow up to 80% then that would move £77m from short-term to long-term debt and their short-term outlook would look a lot better. It really depends on what existing lending covenants are to see if they can actually access further long-term debt form this source. £5m for a hangar and $5m is unlikely to cut it though so they need something else to survive IMO.

Although the aircraft funding deal is positive both from the ability to still access long-term debt and the read through to aircraft asset valuation, this is very much a punt not an investment at the moment given the risk of a total loss.

One thing that is interesting for those who do like a flutter though is that last time I looked IG were still offering controlled risk spread bets on Flybe (LON:FLYB) !"

6 months will be around 10th dec when a firm can make another offer after being rejected

Who knows another rally?

Hovering over the buy last Thursday before the news of a virgin merger. Was ill on 73% up on friday for not buying and following gut feeling.

Read a negative review on stockopedia from a paid writer who now has changed his tune and gone long. Will follow my gut in the future.. pumped in now at 22p

BA or virgin want the slots at heathrow and the routes will go again in a few years as they are not profitable.I see cornwall council are subsidising flights at £10 a person for flybe from April 2019. LHR to NWQ.
so They will pay £300 a single one way full flight roughly 4 flights a day thats £2400 a day x7 days x 362 days x 4 = roughly £6,081,600 per year substidy from taxpapers

Total over 4 years is £24,326,400 cornish taxpapers will pay flybe or the new owners, its not a lot to airlines but helps.. BA bought out airsouthwest years ago only to let it die and closed plymouth airport and stopped cornwall flights from LHR

Personally I hope virgin get it

Watch for a stronger pound. Bur reports in $ and is essensial a US company

Basically what you want is a weak pound v dollar not a strong pound

Other the next few days will be more volatility as the brexit talks come out and the currency markets flutter

A no deal should see a weaker pound and any deal should see a stronger pound

Im still watching and not ready to jump back in quite yet

A fantastic company but its being played now by the market makers.. terrible

In a few years in used to drop 1-3% but now its whip sawing and silly 5-10% drops

I would buy level 2 before you think about getting back into this or sit it out till after the US midterm elections on the 6th nov

Just to throw another thing in the mix,

"On 6 November American voters will elect members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, which together are called Congress.

Both houses of Congress are currently controlled by the Republican Party, which backs President Donald Trump.

The Democrats think they can win control of the House of Representatives this year by winning a majority of seats.

Doing so would let them block or delay the president’s plans by refusing to enact them."

More volatility till at least after the mid term elections I think

I will re evaluate on nov 7th once I know if trumps party the republicans has won or not then will check charting options

Ftse always has a rally around early dec (santa rally)

it's all connected. 

Risk assets (equities) are affected by a strong USD and rates, along with yields. To a lesser degree credit. Also monetary policy is key. To understand this will help you understand that equities don't just move on earnings and whether the company is doing well or not

Point and figure chart is quoting 1291

Hopefully its wrong and this is just temporary

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=BUR.L,PWTADANRRO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20%5D

Yes this is just one of many cases they have which can and will drag on for an eternity. These entities are owned by holding companies /Trusts based in tax havens. So he loses , to unwrap and unwind /transfer legal ownership from a trust based in some secretive state will be be more courts , more drawn out appeals , more and more time.. months/years.

"Typically, litigation finance companies charge around 30 per cent of the proceeds, meaning Burford stands to net up to £136m if it can wrest assets including four shotguns made by upmarket gunmaker Holland & Holland and a Damien Hirst work called “Kingdom of Heaven” from Mr Akhmedov’s grip.

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads/farkhad-akhmedov-divorce-settlement-roman-abramovich-yacht-ex-wife/"

Stopped out again..

I am going to sit out now until results week and hammer it in..I made 5 times my money from 489 ish to 2000 so very happy

US Yields and Rising interest rates are effecting everything

Burfords debt isnt massive but increasing and rates increase isnt helping and the £v $ also effects shares price

I noticed also there is some allegations in the US of them miselling bonds (law360.com)

"Litigation funder Burford Capital has asked an Arizona federal court to toss or pause allegations that it undermined a former client when it sold a promissory note for well below its value"

I noticed also Elizabeth o connell doesnt do as many RNS statements now.

I rememeber their seemed to be a lot more RNS news/positive spin in the early days which helped push up prices

For me the placing which they announced would happen again is a cloud always hanging over BUR now. Yes great they are growing the firm but who wants a 20% haircut

Probably better they did it and then never mentioned that they would do again in the results, You could have a simple stop loss of 8-10% would save you the next time..

I would have had the courage to hold and keep investing even though its going down but now out and watching as the whole economy/rates/yields/brexit etc is too much to keep up with....2500 by xmas I dont think that will happen now, maybe by marchs results..who knows... another placing and it will crater to 1000

Taking it all with a pinch of salt.. 800per hr lawyers flat out busy winning cases

Maybe my luck a RNS soon that pumps it up again

Moscow court threw out the case so Burford is a step closer to a chunk of the divorce

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/billionaire-learns-you-only-divorce-once-in-585-million-fight?srnd=premium-europe

Missed this as checked at lunchtime and pumped back in

Point chart is now stating 2050 target

I expect down tommorow that was the pattern from 700 up to 1000

Up a few days down a few days. Interestinly I was looking on level 2 yesterday and their were no institutional orders on there

Still under the radar but probably not for long.

I have a trailing 10% stop loss in case of another placing (I think it will be after results in march or when its by 2500)

Litigation funder Vannin Capital pulls London float blaming market conditions

http://www.cityam.com/265250/litigation-funder-vannin-capital-pulls-london-float-blaming

BUR is digging the moat deeper. An RNS of some kind to stop the rot would be nice

Sitting on the sidelines since stop loss trigger at 1800. Next time I will tighten the loss to a trailing 7% stop loss

Need it to hit the bottom first which could be another few weeks or month. Still trending down and passed the 1560 the point and figure chart suggested was the reversal

http://hardmanandco.com/docs/default-source/company-docs/burford-capital-documents/05.10.18-equity-issue-ensures-growth-is-not-adjourned.pdf

Just released RNS (These companies are normally paid by the companies are researching so its a pinch of salt)

Lots of mention of more placings to come. I thinks its definately a dont put all your eggs in one basket now as before as basically it sais it will wait till it grows again before picking more apples

But look at the eye watering estimates for profit for 2020.

Incredible

They have met or even smashed targets so far so bodes well

Horrible, stop loss trigger at 1800. Sold all my Bur shares.

I have to trust the volume and stop loss, I have far too much to lose

Business model has changed =No
Law Changed= No
Director Change or Staffing change = No
Black Swan event = No just placing to raise money to grow company

Just the institutions now manipulating the price to kick everyone out so they can buy more

Look at the pattern and 1000 it dropped to 738 and everyone panicked. Same old tree shaking

Im not keen on point and figure charts but it has been correct for me in the past , I cant believe 1560 but Im happy to take a breather.. Its still a fantastic growth company

( Rosenblatt plc floated and bombed out and so have others)

This is the king and £192 million will allow it to grow more. I just wish I have level 2 so I know when to get back in again cos it will go back up to 2500 at least overtime

This was stable was a long time hence a large 10% trailing stop loss.

History repeats itself so when the next placing comes I will sit it out using this one as an example on how long it takes to correct itself

Another placing on the cards?

I lost my law.com logon after leaving my law firm, anyone work in law and got a logon for this?

https://www.law.com/litigationdaily/2018/10/02/after-250m-stock-sale-litigation-funding-giant-plans-to-raise-more-capital-407-2631/

They are planning something super big. Buying up other firms I reckon or moving into something massive.. yes to move into asia (they are already there)

I upped my stake yesterday at 1828 but momentum still shows a download drop

Hopefully if theres another placing it will be in March 2019 after results..Like this year.. If its not happened by then I may be tempted to sell on same day as results to lock in money (hopefully after its up) and then wait, if theres a placing then pump in again 1 day later

March 21st the same thing happened with 10 million shares.. this was just after the annual results

Shares dropped approx 200p from 1500 to 1300... then the rest was history

I expect the same, alas a placing is never good news for quick profits

Business is still strong as super resilant, historically any drop is normally returned by twice the anount up